SOMALI CONGRESS IN ASMARA FORMS NEW POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASMARA 000730

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/12/2017
TAGS: PREL KPKO UNSC ER ET SO
SUBJECT: SOMALI CONGRESS IN ASMARA FORMS NEW POLITICAL
ENTITY

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Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary: The Somali Congress for Liberation and
Reconstitution opened in Asmara on September 6. The Congress
has attracted over 300 Somali participants in the plenary, to
include exiled Members of Parliament, members of the diaspora
and civil society and the Council of Islamic Courts figures,
many of whom traveled at their own expense to Asmara. Early
reports indicate that as an outcome of the Congress, the
representatives will establish an umbrella alliance in which
the stakeholders agreed to work together on a common
platform, but continue to maintain their autonomy. This
agreed-upon common platform has two elements: first and
foremost, foreign troops (namely Ethiopia) must withdraw from
Somalia; and second, the alliance is ready for "open
dialogue" with all groups in order to bring peace and
stability to Somali. Most participants have stated the
Congress has gone well; although some have confessed that the
Congress nearly broke down over disagreements regarding the
inclusion of strong Islamic rhetoric in the Congress'
official documents. As for the role of the Government of the
State of Eritrea (GSE),some participants assert that the
Eritreans have allowed the Somalis to make their own
decisions, while others indicate that the Eritreans are
pressing for a more hard-line anti-Ethiopian stance. The
Congress will most likely conclude on Friday, September 14,
after the election of the Alliance leadership. Most of the
participants will depart Asmara immediately, as it is the
beginning of Ramadan, but some plan to remain for ten to
fifteen days to address any outstanding issues of the
Congress.


2. (C) As the Congress comes to a close, Post believes that
the U.S. may have a window of opportunity for engagement with
the newly formed Alliance. The more moderate members of the
Alliance seem to recognize that in order to bring peace and
stability to Somalia, and in particular to Mogadishu, they
need the involvement of the U.S. in facilitating dialogue
between themselves, the TFG and Ethiopia. While the MPs,
civil society and others have openly expressed their anger
over the past few months over U.S. policies towards Somalia,
they have commented also on the positive feelings of most
Somalis toward the U.S. and the valuable role they feel the
U.S. can play in helping resolve the conflict there. End
Summary.

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AN ALLIANCE FORMED BUT AUTONOMY REMAINS
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3. (C) The Congress' foremost agenda item was to formally
establish a political organization among the participants.
The Congress' spokesman Zakariya Mohamed Haji (an exiled MP)
told Poloff the Congress considered three options: 1) form a
government in opposition to the current Transitional Federal
Government led by President Yusuf; 2) establish an alliance
of the stakeholders represented in Asmara; 3) merge all of
the existing entities in Asmara together into one liberation
organization or political party. The plenary decided on
option 2, forming an alliance, in which each group (e.g.
ex-MPs, CIC, diaspora and civil society) would retain their
autonomy but would unite under an umbrella organization with
a common platform. The MPs envision that the Alliance
ultimately will support a multi-party democratic form of
government, but one espousing Islamic values.


4. (C) In a September 12 conversation with Poloff, exiled MP
Abdiraham Adan Ibrahim "Ibbi" identified as the two unifying
pillars of the Alliance's common platform: the liberation of
Somalia and the removal of foreign troops (namely the
Ethiopian forces); and a policy of open dialogue with all
Somali groups. When asked to be more specific about the
dialogue, Ibbi explained that the Alliance acknowledges that
it must engage in conversations with the TFG, the Ethiopians
and other stakeholders to make progress towards elections in

2009. He emphasized, however, that for the Alliance, the

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issue of Ethiopia's withdrawal was non-negotiable. (Comment:
While the MPs strongly espouse Ethiopia's withdrawal as a
precondition to any dialogue with the TFG, post believes they
would be willing to address these as linked issues. Post
does not know the CIC position. End Comment.)

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THE STRUCTURE OF THE ALLIANCE
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5. (C) The Congress plenary agreed to the formation of a
Central Committee comprised of 191 members to manage the new
Alliance. (Note: There is some confusion about this number,
as some participants are stating the Committee will consist
of 151 members. End note.) The CIC will be allocated the
majority of the Committee seats, around 68-90. The MPs will
receive 40-54 seats, the diaspora 35 seats, and civil
society/others 10-18 seats. The difficulty, Ibbi commented,
will be ensuring that no one group has a quorum, which would
allow them to make decisions in the name of the Alliance
without the others. He added that since members of the
diaspora and civil society may be supporters of the CIC, the
plenary is asking that all of those selected for the Central
Committee identify their allegiances upfront. Thus, the
68-90 seats allocated to the CIC may also include members of
the diaspora and civil society. Each of the groups were
instructed to nominate individuals and these names have been
presented to the plenary for approval and will be finalized
by the end of the conference.


6. (C) After the Central Committee is selected, the Committee
members will elect a Chair. The Chair will then select
his/her Vice Chair and present his/her name to the Central
Committee for approval. According to Ibbi, if a member of
the CIC is elected Chair then the Vice Chair must be selected
from the MPs and vice-versa. Of note, Ibbi also stated that
the MPs and the diaspora have said they will only approve a
CIC representative who is moderate, who would be acceptable
to the international community (i.e. not on any terrorist
watch lists),and who has not publicly supported violence as
a means to resolve the problems of Somalia. (Note: There is
also reportedly a movement afoot to stipulate that the Chair
come from neither the CIC nor MP factions. End Note.)


7. (C) The Chair will also select a Secretary-General to
serve as the head of an executive committee (Secretariat)
comprised of ten individuals. These ten individuals will
oversee portfolios ranging from education and health to
foreign affairs and defense. Membership in the Central
Committee will not be a prerequisite for selection to one of
these ten Secretariat positions. Thus, individuals not
present at the Congress could be selected for these positions
depending on their expertise and experience. As a check and
balance, the Central Committee plans to establish six
commissions (described to Poloff as being similar to U.S.
Congressional committees) to monitor and oversee the actions
of the Secretariat. The Congress hopes to finalize the
election of Central Committee members and all selected
positions in the Secretariat by the conclusion of the
conference on September 14. (Comment: Post believes that at
least the Central Committee, Chair, Vice Chair and
Secretary-General will be named by this date. End Comment.)

SIPDIS


8. (C) Poloff pointed out to Ibbi that this structure, with
the Secretariat and ten individual portfolios (whose
portfolio heads he referred to as "ministers"),more closely
resembles a government than an alliance. Ibbi acknowledged
the similarity but denied the implication that the Congress
might be forming a shadow government by explaining that the
Alliance needs to develop some mechanism for addressing the
genuine concerns of the Somali people. The portfolios will
address these concerns.

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CONGRESS DYNAMICS: MPS WALK OUT OVER "JIHAD"
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9. (C) The exiled MPs and some diaspora members have been
remarkably closed-lipped about the inner workings of the
Congress. Initially, Somali contacts told Poloff that the
proceedings were going well and that the members of the CIC
were becoming more moderate in their positions. Prior to the
official opening of the conference, Ibbi reported that the
CIC participants were seeing the value of a secular
government and how the CIC could have an effective role in
such a government without insisting on an Islamist agenda.
Yet as the conference began, it appeared that the members of
the CIC had not, in fact, abandoned their strong pro-Islamist
positions and were jockeying to ensure their voices would be
heard.


10. (C) According to later reports, the Congress has been
fraught with tense moments. Conflicts over decision-making
and efforts by some members of the CIC to use "acclamations",
rather than voting, created difficulties during the Congress.
Tensions reportedly peaked the morning of September 11, when
the MPs, led by former Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden,
walked out of the plenary session. While working on the
charter for the Alliance, the CIC leadership insisted the
official statements should more forcefully reflect Islamic
values, and an argument ensued over the design of the
Alliance logo. Of particular contention was the use of the
word "jihad" in the charter. Following Sharif Hassan and his
supporters' walk-out, Ibbi made a furtive phone call to
Poloff informing her that the Congress might "collapse" over
this issue. The MPs protested to the CIC that they could not
be party to any document or statement that promotes "jihad."
After protracted negotiations and the establishment of a
dispute committee that included Sharif Hassan, Sheikh Sharif,
Sheikh Hassan Aweys, Jama Ali Jama and Sheikh Abdilahi Ali
Haashi, the Congress appears to have agreed on using the word
"resistance" in lieu of "jihad." One observer noted the CIC
was very unhappy with this decision.

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ERITREA: MEDDLING OR NOT?
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11. (C) The hands of the GSE can be seen all over the
Congress -- from the government-provided transportation, the
use of the new GSE parliamentary building, and the
reservations in GSE-owned hotels to the language used in the
public statements and behind-the-scenes machinations. In the
days leading up to the Congress, Yemane Ghebremeskel of the
GSE Office of the President, met daily with the
representatives already present in Asmara reviewing and
approving their speeches. Mr. Al-Amin Mohammed Seid, the
Head of Organizational Affairs for Eritrea's sole political
party, the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ),
spoke at the Congress opening, addressing the historic
relationship between Eritrea and Somalia and their alliance
in fighting their common enemy, Ethiopia. Acting Minister of
Information, Ali Abdu has made regular appearances at the
Congress and is reportedly very close with many of the
Somalis.


12. (C) One Congress participant observed that the Eritreans
have been pressing hard to focus the Congress solely on
opposing the Ethiopian military presence in Somalia. When
asked, Ibbi admitted that after each meeting with Poloff, the
Eritreans demanded a debriefing but nonetheless, he dismissed
claims that the Eritreans were meddling in the conference.
According to Ibbi, the Somalis told the Eritreans in the July
meeting in Doha that they would not allow any GSE
interference in their affairs.

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COMMENT
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13. (C) The Somali MPs and diaspora contacts with whom Poloff
has met routinely express anger and frustration with U.S.
policy in Somalia. However, these individuals also appear
willing to engage in further discussions with the U.S. about

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bringing peace to Somalia. They have not, it seems,
completely disavowed a role for the U.S. These interlocuters
do insist that they be included in conversations regarding
the future of Somalia, while asserting that they have an
important role to play. The Congress in Asmara has made
remarkable progress in a short week in establishing a
structure for moving forward. The unlikely partners of the
CIC and the MPs have found a way to work together and their
"marriage of convenience" appears to be one that will stick,
at least for the moment. Post notes that the groups are not
speaking with one voice, outside of common platform issues,
nor would we anticipate that they would do so under the new
alliance.


14. (C) The influence of Eritrea on this group is unclear at
this time and the GSE refuses to engage with Post in
discussions about Somalia. That the GSE had its own agenda
for this Congress is obvious, but the Somalis seem capable of
effectively pushing back. As the Congress comes to a close,
Post will continue to engage with those Somalis who remain in
Asmara.
MCINTYRE