DARFUR: NONSIGNATORY GROUP IN ASMARA RAISES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASMARA 000652

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017
TAGS: PREL ER SU
SUBJECT: DARFUR: NONSIGNATORY GROUP IN ASMARA RAISES
CONCERNS ABOUT ARUSHA CONFERENCE

REF: 7/30 AND 7/31 ASMARA-AF/SPG E-MAILS

Classified By: CDA Jennifer A. McIntyre, for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d).


1. (C) Summary. On July 30, Charge met with representatives
of the newly created Darfur non-signatory umbrella group, the
United Front for Liberation and Development (UFLD) at their
request. The UFLD members expressed their displeasure with
the methodology used by the UN/au to allocate invitations for
the August 3-5 conference in Arusha, allocations which they
felt did not accurately represent the level of ground support
for the UFLD organization. Despite these complaints about
the Arusha framework, UFLD representatives confirmed their
intention to attend the conference. In a separate meeting
later that day, Dr. Taisier Ali (protect) of the
Peacebuilding Center for the Horn of Africa (PCHA) said that
the UFLD representatives had been extremely angered by the
UN/AU selection process and, a few days earlier, had
threatened to boycott Arusha and return to fighting in
Darfur. Thanks to strong intervention by the Eritrean
negotiators and the PCHA, the representatives finally agreed
to go to Arusha. Dr. Taisier also related rumors that have
been circulating in Asmara about a private deal cut between
the Libyans and AU negotiator Salim Salim to ensure preferred
venues for Darfur talks. End Summary.

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UFLD EXPRESSES CONCERNS ABOUT ARUSHA INVITATIONS
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2. (C) On July 30, Charge met with UFLD representatives to
discuss their concerns about the August 2-5 non-signatory
conference in Arusha. Representatives were: Khamis Abdallah
Abakr, current chairman of the UFLD and head of Sudan
Liberation Movement off-shoot(SLA/M); Hashim Hamad
Abdelrahman also of SLA/M; Salah Mohamed Abdelrahman of the
Revolutionary Democratic Front Forces (RDFF); Hassan Khamis
of the National Movement for Reform and Development (NMRD);
and Yasein Mohammed of the Sudanese Federal Democratic
Alliance (SFDA). Hashim Hamad, who served as primary
spokesman, stated that all five groups comprising the UFLD
would attend Arusha, but that the selection criteria for
participation did not fairly represent the political
realities in Darfur. Hashim said the UFLD objected to
receiving their invitations per their subgroups (e.g. as SLM,
RDFF, etc.) rather than as members of the UFLD, which they
perceived as a slight to their new organization.


3. (C) Hashim further complained that the UN/AU's criteria
seemed arbitrary in assigning the number of invitees for each
non-signatory group. Claiming that the UFLD represents 80
percent of all forces on the ground in Darfur, they were
particularly concerned with the eight invitations proferred
to the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM),the highest
allocation of invitations provided to any single group. They
also objected to the selection of several individuals on the
basis of being "personalities" but not truly supported by
political or military backing in Darfur. Khamis cited
Abdulwahid and Abdulshafi as examples, noting that both
individuals are "zero on the military front".


4. (C) When asked by Charge what sort of accommodation the
UFLD was seeking, they were unable to provide a definitive
answer; however, they explained they had hoped the UN/AU
would allow the groups to determine "equal representation"
among themselves at Arusha. Charge noted that the conference
start date was imminent and expressed doubt that the UN/AU
would be able to agree on a new selection criteria and
reissue invitations on time. She observed that, as a bloc,
the UFLD would have a greater number of participants than any
other single non-signatory group. Since the UFLD was a new
group and largely unfamiliar outside of Asmara, she added,
Arusha could provide an excellent opportunity for the UFLD to
demonstrate its unity as a single political entity.


5. (C) Charge inquired about the UFLD's intentions to attend
the proposed follow-on conference to be hosted by the Sudan
People's Liberation Movement (SPLM). She also asked whether
the UFLD felt it would be ready for a final mediation in
September. Khamis said the UFLD does anticipate attending the
SPLM conference because the agenda would be different from

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Arusha and discussions would include a broader representation
of Darfur's civil society. As for a September mediation,
Khamis said that the UFLD "cannot refuse, and we are ready
for the peace process any place, any time." He also said
that three days in Arusha was not enough time for
consultations. He added that the UFLD attendees planned to
return to Darfur following Arusha in order to speak their
supporters and did not anticipate returning immediately to
Asmara.

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PCHA PROVIDES ADDITIONAL CONTEXT ON UFLD VIEWS ...
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6. (C) Charge met separately July 30 with Dr. Taisier Ali to
learn the context behind the UFLD's request for a meeting.
(Note: The PCHA has worked closely with the Eritrean
negotiators and Darfur non-signatories in Asmara and provides
administrative space and support to the UFLD. End Note.)
Dr. Taisier said that the UFLD members had been extremely
agitated following the UN/AU issuance of Arusha invitations.
On Friday, July 28, the UFLD members had threatened to
boycott Arusha altogether and return to fighting in Darfur.
Dr. Taisier said that he and Eritrean negotiator Abdella
Jabir had spent most of Friday and Saturday urging the UFLD
to go to Arusha despite the group's reservations. As of the
morning of July 30, Dr. Taisier confirmed that all groups had
agreed to send representatives to Arusha. To ensure this
commitment, Dr. Taisier was pressing each group to
immediately provide the PCHA with the names of their
attendees so that he could pass this information to the UN/AU.

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AND PASSES ON RUMORS OF LIBYAN MEDDLING
--------------


7. (C) On July 31, Dr. Taisier contacted Charge to express
his concerns about a discrepancy with the names of the four
attendees for the SLM/A-Unity Command which had been
submitted to the UN/AU. (Note: The SLM/A's elected
representative for negotiations, Sharif Harir, had been in
Asmara during most of the formation of the UFLD but at the
end of July had traveled to Oslo for medical treatment. The
SLM/A's elected chairman Abdallah Yahia was in Tripoli. Dr.
Taisier noted that Sharif and Yahia were communicating
regularly. End Note.) According to Dr. Taisier, the SLM/A
in Asmara had submitted its four attendees to the UN/AU on
July 30. This list, which included Sharif and Yahia, had
been vetted with the SLM/A commanders in Darfur. Following
the submission of these names, the UN/AU informed Dr. Taisier
they had received a different attendee list from Yahia in
Tripoli. The second list did not include Sharif. According
to Dr. Taisier, the SLM/A believes the Libyans pressured
Yahia into replacing Sharif with another representative more
sympathetic to Libyan views. Rumors were also circulating
that Yahia had been refused exit permission from Tripoli
several times. Dr. Taisier commented that he personally felt
the exclusion of Sharif from Arusha to be a mistake. Sharif
had been elected by the SLM/A in May to serve as its
negotiator and foreign relations representative. Dr. Taisier
added that the SLM/A commanders were unhappy about Sharif's
exclusion and intended to issue a public statement should the
issue not be resolved. (Note: The commanders issued a
statement August 2 affirming both Abdallah Yahia and Sharif
Harir as authorized SLM/A representatives. End Note.)


8. (C) Dr. Taisier also stated that many Sudanese, including
members of the UFLD, believe AU Envoy Salim Salim had reached
a private agreement with the Libyans. According to the
rumors, Salim Salim cut a deal in which Arusha would serve as
the venue of the non-signatory conference in exchange for his
support for Tripoli as the venue for a final mediation. Dr.
Taisier noted that Salim Salim owns a ranch in Arusha and
according to the rumors, Salim had been angling to hold the
Arusha talks there. Charge inquired how such a deal could be
possible given that the UN shares oversight of the Darfur
process with the AU. Dr. Taisier noted that, whether true or
not, many people believe that UN Envoy Jan Eliasson has
deferred much of the substantial decision-making to Salim,
given Salim's expertise on African matters.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Dark rumors of Libyan and AU underhanded dealings
could be reasonably expected from an Asmara vantage point.
The rumors mesh neatly with the worldview of the Eritreans,
who remain suspicious of Libyan intentions and harbor an
intense dislike for both the AU and Salim Salim. Even the
Eritrean negotiators admitted their unhappiness with the
decision to hold the non-signatory conference in Arusha
versus their preferred venue of N'djamena. Any proof that the
Arusha venue was selected in accordance with a secret deal
between the Libyans and AU would suit them nicely. What
makes this rumor interesting is Dr. Taisier's assertions that
many of his Sudanese contacts (including offshore Sudanese
businessmen which he terms "very reliable") also believe the
reports of Libyan meddling. Nonetheless, according to Dr.
Taisier, the Eritreans played a constructive role in keeping
the UFLD and its sub-groups engaged in the process regardless
of their own suspicions and displeasure with the meeting
venue of Arusha. End Comment.
MCINTYRE