Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ASMARA466
2007-05-23 14:10:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Asmara
Cable title:  

SLM'S SHARIF HARIR RETURNS TO ASMARA

Tags:  PREL PINR SU ER 
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P 231410Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8869
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1357
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1535
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0643
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEPADJ/CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000466 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PINR SU ER
SUBJECT: SLM'S SHARIF HARIR RETURNS TO ASMARA


CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASMARA 000466

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PINR SU ER
SUBJECT: SLM'S SHARIF HARIR RETURNS TO ASMARA


CLASSIFIED BY: AMB Scott H. DeLisi, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Late Monday night, Eritrean People's Front for
Democracy and Justice (PFDJ) Head of Organizational Affairs Abdallah
Jabir returned to Asmara from his over four months stay in Chad,
bringing with him SLM head of external affairs Sharif Harir, SLM
commander Khamis Abdalla Abakr, SLM interim chairman Yahia Abdallah and
24 others. The return of these non-signatories came as a surprise to
many who believed the non-signatories would never return to Eritrea
after the Government of Eritrea(GSE) restricted their travel during
their stay in late 2006. Sharif Harir has now aligned himself with the
SLM and separated from the Sudanese Federal Democratic Alliance (SFDA).
He and the others came to Asmara upon the completion of an SLM
consultative congress organized to bring cohesion and structure to the
SLM. Sharif explained that he returned to revive the NRF and to
participate in negotiations; negotiations in which the Eritreans, Shari
asserts, should be the lead mediator (albeit working with the UN).
Neither Khalil Ibrahim of JEM nor the SLM faction leaders Abdulwahid or
Abdulshafi have come to Asmara, however, and it appears unlikely they
will. Whether those who are here can speak authoritatively for the SLM
and the other non-signatories as a whole, will determine if any
mediation effort led by the GSE even gets off the ground and provides a
playing card in the bidding for the Darfur negotiations. End Summary.

ERITREAN LED NEGOTATIONS: A RE-BIRTH IN ASMARA?
--------------


2. (C) Sharif said to Poloff on May 22 that he and the other non-
signatories trust the Eritreans and see them as playing a key role as
lead negotiator. He discounted any role for the AU, dismissing them as
untrustworthy, and he rejected the DPA. He acknowledged the declaratio
of principles as acceptable, however, described the DPA as a "non-
starter" and one rejected by the SLM. He did note that the UN had a
significant role to play, both in the negotiations and in peacekeeping.
He also expressed frustration at the lack of force behind UN Security
Council resolutions.


3. (C) As for the negotiations, Sharif told Poloff he returned to
Asmara because the timing was right and said he hoped to revive the
National Redemption Front (NRF) and bring together the non-signatories.
In his mind, a regional negotiation is the ideal solution. While Chad
and Libya must be involved, it is Eritrea, Sharif stated, "that is the
brain." According to Sharif the longstanding support of the Eritreans
for the rebel movements of Sudan shows that they can trust the GSE. He
did agree that while the GSE would be the lead mediators, the UN and
international community must be involved. According to Dr. Taisier Ali
of the Center for Peacekeeping in the Horn of Africa, who met with
Abdallah Jabir on his return, even the Eritreans now recognize the role
of the UN and international community in Darfur negotiations.

THE OTHERS ARE HERE BUT WHERE ARE KHALIL AND THE JEM?
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Noting that Khamis is already in Asmara, Sharif said that Ahmed
Ibrahim Diraij of the Sudanese Federal Democratic Alliance (SFDA) is
probably also arriving within the next few days. It is not clear,
however, that the JEM's Khalil Ibrahim or Abudulwahid are prepared to
come to Asmara. Khalil's role according to both Sharif and Taisier
appears to be uncertain. Abdallah Jabir reportedly told Taisier that
the Eritreans no longer see Khalil and his Justice and Equality Movemen
(JEM) as a reliable partner; he is, from the GSE perspective,
undependable. Sharif echoed this sentiment, noting that Khalil's
soldiers were not Sudanese but Chadian and that even Chad was getting
frustrated by him and had concerns about his alliances. While
describing Khalil as "too volatile" he grudgingly admitted that Khalil
had a role of some sort to play. To exclude him from the negotiations
could be problematic. As for Abdulwahid, Sharif dismissed him outright
noting his lengthy absence from Darfur and claiming he has no military
support at all. Abdallah Jabir did share with Poloff and Dr. Taisier
that he and Eritrean General Tekle attempted to meet with Abdulwahid
twice during visits to France in January and February. Both times, the
French Government arranged the meetings, and both times Abdulwahid
failed to show up or even call. Abdallah Jabir further noted his
concern over 600 soldiers in Eastern Sudan who pledge their support to
Abdulwahid, who appears to have abandoned them, having not contacted
them for weeks.

THE SLM: A RESTRUCTURING
--------------


ASMARA 00000466 002 OF 002



5. (C) Sharif also offered insight into the recent meetings of the SLM
Over the past few weeks the SLM met together with over 160
representatives of various components of the organizations, including
Ahmed AbdelShafi Bassey. At the consultative congress the participants
elected not to engage in open elections but rather to agree on
leadership and goals through consensus. In the end, the group agreed o
laws and the structure of the army and established a transitional
council of 51. After much discussion and jockeying by AbdelShafi for
the leadership position, the congress agreed that Yahia Abdallah,
described by Sharif as a young fighter, would serve as the interim
chairman. The position of vice-chairman remains open with the hope tha
Abdelshafi will take up the position and Sharif will serve as the head
of external and political relations in charge of negotiations.


6. (C) Sharif's clearly indicated that he sees this group of the
consultative congress that accompanied him to Asmara to be the new
leaders of the SLM. He dismissed Abdelwahid, noting he had no real
supporters and no real military might, just a loud voice. The G-19 did
not participate in the consultative congress and thus, Sharif claimed,
they were not legitimate. He alleged that most of them no longer even
remain in Darfur. As for Abdulshafi and his supporters, Sharif
indicated the consultative congress leaders are ready for Abdulshafi to
re-join the group and are engaged in discussion with him. When asked
about the numbers supporting them, Sharif refused outright to give a
number, even a ballpark figure.

COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) While most would have predicted after the shenanigans of late
2006, the non-signatories would never return to Asmara, the GSE's
influence with Sudanese rebel groups can never be discounted. Abdalla
Jabir's many months in Chad appear to have paid off to some extent, and
possibly by his presence alone, he has convinced the rebels that the
Eritreans are committed to playing a significant role and will not
abandon them. What specifically brought Sharif, Khamis and the others
back to Asmara is not yet known, however their presence is a plus for
the GSE and strengthens their bid to play a significant and key role in
negotiations for Darfur. End Comment.

DeLisi