SUDANESE DCM: GSE MOVING ON DARFUR MEDIATION AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASMARA 000347

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/SPG AND AF/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/02/2017
TAGS: PREL ER SU
SUBJECT: SUDANESE DCM: GSE MOVING ON DARFUR MEDIATION AND
ECONOMIC COOPERATION; CONCERNS ON BORDER TENSIONS AND
U.S.-ERITREAN RELATIONS

REF: ASMARA 307

Classified By: AMB SCOTT H. DELISI FOR REASONS 1.4(B) AND (D).1


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a March 28 meeting, Sudanese DCM in
Asmara Hussein Mohammed Hussein claimed that the Eritreans
were close to achieving agreement from the non-signatories to
the Darfur Peace Agreement (DPA) that they would meet in
Asmara mid-April for the purpose of creating a united
political platform. According to Hussein, this Darfurian
conference would be directly followed by an Eritrean-led
mediation between the non-signatories and Sudan's Government
for National Unity (GNU),also to be held in Asmara. Post has
no way to judge the validity of the DCM's assertions, but
notes that none of the other Sudan watchers in Asmara have
indicated that the Eritreans are any further in either
uniting the Darfurians or firming up a mediation date than
they were in fall 2006. Hussein also provided a copy of an
economic cooperation agreement signed between the Sudanese
and Eritreans in Asmara in mid-March and noted that
implementation is proceeding with two conferences in early
April focusing on cross-border trade issues and
financial/banking issues. Hussein raised his concerns about
a reported increase in tensions between the Eritreans and
Ethiopians and troop build-ups on the border and about the
continuing poor state of relations between the U.S. and
Government of the State of Eritrea (GSE). Post speculates
the Sudanese are primarily concerned that further
deterioration in the U.S.-GSE bilateral relationship could
scuttle any possibility for an Eritrean-led mediation on
Darfur but remains intrigued by the Sudanese DCM's continued
unsolicitied offering of his views on a wide range of
subjects of interest to the USG. End Summary.

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DARFUR CONFERENCE AND MEDIATION IMMINENT IN ASMARA?
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2. (C) Sudanese DCM Hussein Mohammed Hussein told DCM March
28 that the Eritrean delegation in N'djamena, comprised of
Yemane Ghebreab and Abdella Jabir from the GSE's ruling
political party People's Front for Democracy and Justice
(PFDJ) and General Tecle from the Ministry of Defense, is
very close to gaining agreement from all DPA non-signatories
to convene a conference in Asmara around mid-April. Hussein
said Ghebreab and company had received agreement from
Sudanese Liberation Movement (SLM) figures Abdulshafie and
Adam Bakheit, Sudan Federal Democratic Alliance (SFDA) Sharif
Harir, and National Redemption Front and SLM leader Khamis
Abdallah that they would constitute themselves into a
delegation under the leadership of Ahmed Diraij. Hussein
noted that JEM leader Khalil Ibrahim continues to reject
political compromise but the Eritreans seem to be bringing
him into the fold as well. Abdulwahid, Hussein noted,
remains in Europe and is out of the picture.


3. (C) Hussein commented that the purpose of the proposed
non-signatory planning conference was to establish a single
negotiating platform and to formally elect leaders to
represent the Darfurians in the negotiations with the GNU.
The Eritreans plan to immediately follow this conference with
an Eritrean-led mediation between the GNU and the Darfurians,
also to be held in Asmara. DCM inquired about the timing of
the conference and mediation given Libya's proposal for a
one-day conference in Tripoli April 16. Hussein said that
the conference, a follow-on to the Heads of State summit held
in Tripoli in February, would focus on issues concerning the
Chadian/Sudanese border, and that Eritrea would have a
representative in attendance. Hussein added that the Asmara
and Tripoli conference dates would be coordinated and since
the purposes were different, would create no conflict.


4. (C) Hussein noted that Special Envoy Jan Eliasson had
planned to meet with Ghebreab in N'djamena last week (the
week of March 26) to discuss coordination between the
Eritrean and UN-AU mediation initiatives. He also mentioned
that French Special Envoy Henri de Coignac was also in Chad

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during this time period and implied that de Coignac had also
planned to meet with Ghebreab.

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ERITREAN-SUDANESE ECONOMIC COOPERATION MOVING FORWARD
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5. (C) Hussein provided DCM with the translation of a
statement signed March 18, 2007 in Asmara between GNU Head of
Political Affairs Mustafa Osman Ismail and PFDJ Head of
Economic Affairs Hagos Gebrehiwet. Both sides agreed to:

-- Develop commercial activities between the countries in
general, and in the border area specifically, "giving high
priority to avoiding non-compliance with the rules and
regulations in both countries";

-- Encourage investments in the two countries and plan joint
projects; and

-- Set up necessary financial institutions and "exchange of
benefits of the ports of the two countries".


6. (C) In support of the agreement, Hussein said two
conferences are scheduled for the beginning of April: one in
Kassala to establish a joint committee for regulating border
trade with a focus on security and customs procedures; and
the second in Khartoum focusing on financial/banking issues
and the regulation of trade. The primary institutions in
the latter would be the Bank of Sudan and Commercial Bank of
Eritrea. In response to DCM's query, Hussein said he
believed Qatar would attend the conference concerning border
issues. (Comment: Ref A provides information on Qatar's
reported commitments to developing the Eritrean/Sudanese
border. Post has also heard through our Embassy contacts
that the Emir of Qatar was either in Massawa the weekend of
March 31 or will come the week of April 2 -- his yacht was
sighted in the harbor. If true, this visit appears to be
without the pomp and circumstance one would expect for a
state leader, but several recent visits by foreign government
leaders to include Ugandan President Museveni last weekend,
have been kept very low-key by the GSE. End Comment.)
Hussein said he believed that the two conferences would
prepare a framework for the conduct of "real business"
between the two countries by the end of April. He noted that
the main trade between the governments would focus on four
commodities: oil, gas, sorghum and sugar.

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SUDANESE CONCERN OVER BORDER AND U.S.-ERITREAN RELATIONS
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7. (C) Changing the subject, Hussein asked whether the U.S.
had been following the build-up of Ethiopian and Eritrean
troops on their shared border, the increase in border
skirmish incidents as well as the heightened rhetoric between
the two governments. He expressed his concern that the
situation was becoming increasingly tense and that a renewal
of hostilities would be disastrous to the entire Horn. DCM
noted that we were following the activities on the border to
the extent we could, but at this point, both governments
appeared to be avoiding direct confrontation. When asked,
Hussein had no comment on whether the Sudanese believed that
hostilities were likely to flare up again.


8. (C) Hussein emphasized the need for improved relations
between the GSE and the U.S., which he categorized as
critical to stability in the Horn. DCM explained that, to
date, the GSE has refused multiple requests to discuss a
resolution of the continuing impasse on our diplomatic pouch
and official visas. By refusing to respond to any of post's
openings for dialogue on either operational or policy issues,
the GSE had left the Embassy with no avenues for improving
our bilateral relationship. Hussein observed that until a
few years ago, Sudan also had a terrible relationship with
the GSE, a situation which finally resolved itself through
quiet, person-to-person negotiations. He suggested that he

ASMARA 00000347 003 OF 003


personally speak with Yemane Ghebreab after his return to
Eritrea, to facilitate a dialogue. DCM responded that the
Ambassador and Embassy officers would be ready at any
juncture to speak with the Eritreans to work through
operational and policy differences, a position which post had
consistently presented in our meetings with GSE officials.

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COMMENT
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9. (C) Post has no way to judge the validity of Hussein's
assessment that the Eritreans are one step away from gaining
agreement of the DPA non-signatories to imminently join hands
in Asmara. Since last fall, we have heard a constant refrain
that this planning conference would occur "within a few
weeks", only to have another month go by. Hussein's
assertions also do not track with any other sources
in-country, including the Norwegian Ambassador who maintains
regular contact with Ghebreab as well. Certainly the fact
that Ghebreab has stayed almost two months in N'djamena
indicates that GSE negotiations may not be going smoothly.
Post has heard from the Deputy at the British Embassy in
Asmara that Ghebreab has applied for a visa to travel to the
UK this week(for purely PFDJ business with the diaspora),but
that Lord Treisman was seeking a meeting with him in London.
Should a meeting occur, it could provide an opportunity to
ascertain the true status of Eritrean discussions with the
Darfurians.


10. (C) As for U.S.-GSE relations, Hussein has emphatically
raised his concerns in several meetings with DCM about the
rumors in town that the Embassy may reduce staff or close
down if relations with the GSE do not improve. He contends
(at least to us) that Eritrea and the U.S. are critical
players to achieving peace in the Horn and a break in our
relations would be disastrous for the entire region. Since
our presence in Asmara seemingly has had little or no
influence on GSE actions over the last year, post believes
Hussein's primary concern is that further deterioration of
our relationship would scuttle an Eritrean initiative for
Darfur, which the Sudanese (at least in Asmara) are
energetically plugging in lieu of the UN-AU alternative.
Hussein seemed earnest in his concern over the heightened
tensions at the Eritrean-Ethiopian border, yet he sees no
role for Sudan in helping to alleviate the tensions between
its two neighbors. Like the Eritreans, he seems insistent
that the U.S. is the solution to resolving the border problem
by using our influence with the Ethiopians, despite the fact
that the GSE itself has rejected all efforts to
constructively engage the Ethiopians through the EEBC
process, and refused to respond to the Embassy's requests for
dialogue.

DeLisi