Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ASHGABAT501
2007-05-16 10:59:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ashgabat
Cable title:  

SCENESETTER FOR AMBASSADOR NEUMANN:

Tags:  PREL PGOV SNAR TX AF US 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6786
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHAH #0501/01 1361059
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161059Z MAY 07
FM AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8748
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES 0043
RUEHLM/AMEMBASSY COLOMBO 0299
RUEHKA/AMEMBASSY DHAKA 0321
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 2004
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0747
RUEHKT/AMEMBASSY KATHMANDU 0157
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 0801
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 0068
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 0119
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 0039
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 0053
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 0078
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 0391
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC//DHO-2/REA/NMJIC-J2//
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC//J5/RUE//
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASHGABAT 000501 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY) AND FOR SCA/AF (NEUMANN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SNAR TX AF US
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR AMBASSADOR NEUMANN:
TURKMENISTAN-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS

REF: A. A) ASHGABAT 459

B. B) ASHGABAT 317

C. C) ASHGABAT 169

D. D) ASHGABAT 144

E. E) 06 ASHGABAT 721

F. F) ASHGABAT 247

G. G) KABUL 1570

ASHGABAT 00000501 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ASHGABAT 000501

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY) AND FOR SCA/AF (NEUMANN)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV SNAR TX AF US
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR AMBASSADOR NEUMANN:
TURKMENISTAN-AFGHANISTAN RELATIONS

REF: A. A) ASHGABAT 459

B. B) ASHGABAT 317

C. C) ASHGABAT 169

D. D) ASHGABAT 144

E. E) 06 ASHGABAT 721

F. F) ASHGABAT 247

G. G) KABUL 1570

ASHGABAT 00000501 001.2 OF 004


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.
4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Ambassador Neumann, Embassy Ashgabat warmly welcomes
your visit here, which offers us an opportunity to engage the
Government of Turkmenistan on a more substantive level on the
issue of assistance to Afghanistan. Turkmenistan's President
Berdimuhammedov, after just a few months on the job, is
committed to maintaining his predecessor's foreign policy of
"permanent, positive neutrality," although he has shown a
greater willingness than former President Niyazov to engage
with his neighbors in bilateral and multilateral discussions,
and may promote a less isolationist policy in the future.
However, Afghanistan has occupied a unique place among
Turkmenistan's neighbors -- seemingly absolved from the
typical neighborhood boundaries of "positive neutrality;"
Afghanistan received special treatment even under former
President Niyazov, albeit the relationship lacked political
depth and breadth. Even as Turkmenistan shirked
international agreements and avoided "regional entanglement,"
Ashgabat maintained a positive, yet distant, relationship
with its southeasterly neighbor, which appears to fall into a
vaguely-defined "comfort zone" for Turkmenistan's
neutrality-obsessed leadership. This relationship with
Afghanistan provides an opportunity for Turkmenistan to play
a safe international role in providing "humanitarian
assistance" through the USCENTCOM's Gas and Go refueling
operations. Afghanistan is also perceived as a potential
future market for Turkmenistan's products. End Summary.

BERDIMUHAMMEDOV'S NEW NEUTRALITY
--------------


2. (C) President Berdimuhammedov, inaugurated in February, is

carefully forging his own version of Turkmenistan's
post-independence foreign policy of "permanent, positive
neutrality." Just three months on the job, Berdimuhammedov
has already made two international visits -- to Saudi Arabia
and to Russia -- and hosted a tripartite summit last week in
Turkmenbashy with Russian President Putin and Kazakhstani
President Nazarbayev. Indeed, although Berdimuhammedov has a
stated commitment to former President Niyazov's policy of
neutrality, which is a pervasive and popular motto in
Turkmenistan, he appears more open than his predecessor to
engage with foreign leaders. The apparent rise of Deputy
Chairman for International Relations Rashit Meredov is a
reflection -- and perhaps also a cause -- of this new
openness, although some observers also suggest that
Berdimuhammedov, weaker and less experienced than Niyazov,
cannot afford to isolate the country any longer and needs to
seek international support.

AFGHANISTAN: ASHGABAT'S INTERNATIONAL "COMFORT ZONE"
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Afghanistan President Karzai's attendance at both
the funeral of former President Niyazov and the inauguration
of President Berdimuhammedov sent a signal of positive
cooperation and reflected the generally warm relationship

ASHGABAT 00000501 002.2 OF 004


between the two capitals. Afghanistan has an embassy in
Turkmenistan; Turkmenistan maintains consulates in
Afghanistan in Mazar-e Sharif and Herat -- a holdover from
Taliban days, when former President Niyazov, in the spirit of
neutrality, tried to maintain relations with both the Taliban
and the Northern Alliance. There is a natural cultural
liaison -- Afghanistan's ambassador to Turkmenistan is an
ethnic Turkmen and has been granted Turkmenistan citizenship.


4. (SBU) If anything, Turkmenistan's perspective on
Afghanistan appears colored by cultural arrogance and a sense
of Turkmen superiority -- in development, education, security
and stability -- over their southern neighbor. Although some
two million ethnic Turkmen reside in northern Afghanistan,
the problems that have plagued Turkmenistan's external
relations with other neighbors have, for the most part, been
absent from the Ashgabat-Kabul dynamic, leaving Afghanistan
as something of a comfortable neighbor for "positively
neutral" Turkmenistan, even under former President Niyazov.

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE TO AFGHANISTAN
--------------


5. (SBU) Turkmenistan remains an important conduit for
humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan, and maintenance of
overflights and the military refueling operation at Ashgabat
Airport remain a key embassy goal.

BILATERAL TRADE
--------------


6. (SBU) Bilateral trade between the two countries mostly
centers on energy products, including gasoline, diesel,
liquefied gas, and gas-generated electricity that
Turkmenistan exports to Afghanistan. Data from 2005
estimated Turkmenistan's exports to Afghanistan at around
$123 million and Afghanistan's exports to Turkmenistan --
mostly fruits, spices and nuts -- at $32 million.


7. (SBU) Although the countries share a 1,200 kilometer
border, there are only two routes connecting the countries:
the unpaved Imamnazar-Andhoy road, and a short road and rail
link between Serhetabad and Turghundi, which connects to
Herat. Aside from transportation difficulties, Afghanistanis
cite visas -- or rather, Turkmenistan's cumbersome visa
process -- as the number one problem inhibiting greater
levels of trade with Turkmenistan.


8. (SBU) Turkmenistan is interested in expanding trade
opportunities between the two countries. Senior government
officials from several ministries have told Charge that the
government is looking forward to realizing a higher volume of
trade through the Imam Nazar border crossing checkpoint on
the border with Afghanistan (see paragraph 14).

ELECTRICITY
--------------


9. (SBU) Since 2002, Turkmenistan has supplied electricity to
Afghanistan using Soviet-built power transmission lines at a
discounted price. USAID contractors reported in March that
Turkmenistan produces 3,200 megawatts (MWs) of power
annually. Because Turkmenistan cut supplies to Uzbekistan
following heightened political tensions, there is an excess
of power at the gas-fired power plant in Serdar (near
Turkmenabat, in the country's east) that amounts to roughly
2,200 MW. USAID contractors confirmed that Turkmenistan --
with more excess power than its neighbors -- has the capacity
and is expressing the will to sell the 300 MW of electricity
sought by Afghanistan.

ASHGABAT 00000501 003.2 OF 004




10. (U) Currently, two high-voltage lines run from
Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. The first, from Mary (in
Turkmenistan) to Herat, is designed for 220 kilovolts (kV),
but operates at 110 kV. Built over three years ago to deliver
electricity to Afghanistan, the line is still in good
condition and can probably be converted to a 220 kV line in
two to five years. The other line, 110 kV, runs from
Turkmenistan to Andkhoy and electrifies the majority of
Afghanistan around Andkhoy. A third line, still to be
constructed, would run from Mary to Tagtabazar to Marcik.


11. (SBU) Niyazov said in spring 2006 that he intended to
extend the current electricity lines past Mazar-e Sharif and
Herat all the way to Kabul. At the current price of
$0.02/KWh, Turkmenistan's potential annual revenue from
Afghanistan could reach $9.8 million, based on a 490 MW
Afghan import assumption (ref F). In April 2006, a
memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed between former
President Niyazov and an Afghanistani delegation headed by
Power and Water Resources Minister Ismail (ref F),providing
for delivery of an additional 330 MW above the 165 MW that
was being supplied at the time. Prior to the MoU,
Turkmenistan in 2006 was exporting about 1.3 GW a year,
including 599 MW to Iran and 535 MW to Turkey, as well as the
165 MW to Afghanistan.

DEBT FORGIVENESS
--------------


12. (U) On February 26, newly-inaugurated President
Berdimuhammedov announced forgiveness of a $4.2 million
electricity debt in a phone call with Afghanistan President
Karzai. Post understood this sum to have represented the
remainder of the original, pre-April 2006 debt, i.e., a new
gesture to Afghanistan.

PROSPECTS FOR TAP
--------------


13. (SBU) Following the May 12 tripartite energy summit in
Turkmenbashy, Berdimuhammedov said that although Turkmenistan
would move forward with the Caspian littoral pipeline, he
would not rule out other export routes, including to China,
Iran, the trans-Caspian pipeline, and the
Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (-India) pipeline (TAP or
TAPI). TAP also featured in Turkmenistan's October 2006 Oil
and Gas Development Plan for 2007-2030 as a future pipeline
option. Despite rhetorical promises, however, most observers
here agree that TAP is for now a non-starter because of the
security situation in Afghanistan.

CROSS-BORDER SECURITY
--------------


14. (C) Turkmenistan officials have said that narcotics
trafficking is a problem rooted in increasing crop yields in
Afghanistan. Both the minister and deputy minister of
defense have posited the question of increased poppy
cultivation as a security concern to visiting U.S.
delegations. Drug trafficking from northern Afghanistan
remains an issue of major concern in Turkmenistan, especially
as the new leadership has publicly announced its intention to
address the drug problem. Embassy Kabul reported (ref G)
that in Jowzjan, where planting has been extensive this year,
the ethnic Turkmen community continued to be involved in
poppy cultivation for its own consumption and to smuggle
across the Amu Darya river to Turkmenistan. In early
February, Turkmenistan undertook a major drug burn -- the
fourth in the last two years -- which was a major media event

ASHGABAT 00000501 004.2 OF 004


and served, on the eve of the presidential election, to
reinforce Berdimuhammedov's commitment to addressing the drug
problem in Turkmenistan (ref C).


15. (SBU) Construction of a second USG-funded border
crossing checkpoint is almost complete at the Imam Nazar
border station located across the border from Afghanistan's
Aquina checkpoint. On April 9, Embassy Ashgabat staff
crossed into Afghanistan for a first-time meeting with
Embassy Kabul counterparts, Turkmenistan's First Deputy
Minister of National Security, Afghanistan's local politcial
officials and local checkpoint officials from both countries
(ref A). The introductory meeting was followed one week
later by a UNODC hosted cross-border conference with
participants from both the Imam Nazar and Aquina checkpoints
and a senior counternarcotics official from Kabul. Embassy
Ashgabat is keen to pursue the cross-border dialogue and
continues to push this agenda at all relelant law enforcement
ministerial meetings. (Comment: Thus far, Turkmenistan
appears more interested in benefitting from increased
narcotics intelligence from Afghanistan than encouraging an
open dialogue between the two governments. End Comment.)

COMMENT
--------------


16. (SBU) Turkmenistan's generally amiable relationship with
Afghanistan stands out among its more troubled historic
relationships with its neighbors; under President
Berdimuhammedov, who appears more open to at least bilateral
cooperation, the relationship could improve further.
Turkmenistan's view of Afghanistan, however, is colored by a
cultural arrogance and a tendency to harbor concern for the
security situation across the border. Your visit should
reinforce embassy's efforts to strengthen Turkmenistan's
interest in a cross-border relationship that might be founded
on security and power issues, but should extend to increased
opportunities for trade and education. The limited access
points between the two countries and Turkmenistan's strict
visa regime, however, are legacies that will keep Afghanistan
at arm's length. End Comment.
BRUSH