PUTIN, NAZARBAYEV AND BERDIMUHAMMEDOV TO MEET IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000464

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: EPET ENRG PREL RS TX
SUBJECT: PUTIN, NAZARBAYEV AND BERDIMUHAMMEDOV TO MEET IN
TURKMENBASHY PORT ON MAY 11

REF: ASHGABAT 430

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Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Jennifer L. Brush for reasons 1.
4 (B) and (D).

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Local press this morning confirmed the weekend rumor
that Russian President Putin and Kazakhstan President
Nazarbayev would join Turkmenistan President Berdimuhammedov
May 11 at a one-day summit in Turkmenistan's Caspian port of
Turkmenbashy (formerly Krasnovodsk). Discussions are certain
to focus on energy cooperation, probably including
negotiations over an expansion of the Caspian littoral
pipeline and amounts of gas supplied to Russia. Some local
diplomatic observers believe (hope) that Nazarbayev could
have a moderating effect on the discussions, and would be
able to successfully convince Berdimuhammedov not to sign any
definitive agreements with Putin...yet. End Summary.

LOCAL PRESS CONFIRMS RUMORED SUMMIT
--------------


2. (C) Turkmenistan's newspapers today confirmed weekend
rumors that Turkmenistan President Berdimuhammedov would meet
his Russian and Kazakhstani counterparts this week in the
Caspian port of Turkmenbashy. At a May 7 Victory Day
reception, Russian Ambassador Blatov told Charge that Russian
President Putin planned to arrive in Ashgabat on May 10, fly
to Turkmenbashy on May 11, and depart on May 12. Kazakhstani
Ambassador Atonov told Charge Nazarbayev would fly directly
to Turkmenbashy on May 11 for a tripartite meeting with Putin
and Berdimuhammedov, and leave the same day.


3. (U) During Berdimuhammedov's late April visit to Moscow,
Putin agreed to make a reciprocal visit to Ashgabat;
Kazakhstani President Nazarbayev accepted the invitation to
visit Turkmenistan following Berdimuhammedov's May 3 meeting
with Kazakhstani Prime Minister Masimov in Ashgabat. Over
the weekend, squads of government workers were deployed
around Ashgabat repaving roads, repainting gutters and
planting new trees.

THE GOVERNMENT HEADS TO TURKMENBASHY...
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4. (SBU) Pol/Econ Assistant, who traveled on May 5 to
Turkmenbashy, reported an unusual concentration of high-level
government officials en route to the Caspian coast,
presumably in preparation for Friday's summit. Early on May
5, Pol/Econ Assistant was bumped from his front-of-the-plane
seat to the back to make way for Deputy Chairman for
International Relations Rashit Meredov and other ranking
officials on the Turkmenistan Airways flight to Turkmenbashy.
Meredov was accompanied by Deputy Chairman for Education,
Culture, Health, Science and Media Saparlyev and members of
the protocol department for the Presidential Apparat.

...ALONG WITH THE CELLISTS
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5. (SBU) German Ambassador Mondorf told Charge on May 4 that
Turkmenistan had significantly changed the repertoire for the
EU's upcoming 50th anniversary concert in Ashgabat. No
cellos were available for the concert, government officials
said, because all the cellos had gone to Turkmenbashy.

NO ROOM AT THE INN -- EXCEPT FOR RUSSIAN DIPLOMATS
-------------- --------------


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6. (SBU) Pol/Econ Assistant had reservations at the Serdar
Hotel in Turkmenbashy, the most comfortable Caspian coast
hotel; on arrival, however, the hotel staff turned him away,
and said there was "only room for Russians," specifically,
Russian diplomats sent to prepare for Putin's arrival. The
hotel had been redecorated, with a large portrait of
Berdimuhammedov hanging in place of the portrait of Niyazov.
(Comment: This is a significant change; most government
buildings and hotels in Ashgabat are still flanked with
Niyazov portraits. Local observers this week also noticed
additional banners along Ashgabat streets containing
inspiring quotations from Berdimuhammedov. End Comment.)

A CPC FOR GAS?
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7. (SBU) The tripartite summit is sure to center on questions
of Caspian energy and gas transport routes, which were the
subject of recent bilateral meetings between Putin and
Berdimuhammedov in Moscow and Berdimuhammedov and Masimov in
Ashgabat. Press reports following Berdimuhammedov's visit to
Moscow focused on discussions between the presidents of
expanding the Caspian littoral pipeline, a project
enthusiastically endorsed by former President Niyazov which
skirts the northern shore of the Caspian via Russian
territory. Putin noted during the meetings that the pipeline
currently carried 5 million cubic meters of gas daily -- an
annual export of just 1.8 billion cubic meters. Masimov's
May 3 meetings with Berdimuhammedov focused on economic
cooperation, including a trans-Caspian railway connecting
Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, and resumption of the
Ashgabat-Almaty air route (Note: This route existed until
2004, when it was closed. End Note.),and construction of a
new international gas pipeline from Turkmenistan through
Kazakhstan to Russia that would be laid along the Caspian
coast.


8. (C) In a May 4 meeting with Charge, Chevron Corporation
Vice President Guy Hollingsworth said that, if Putin and
Nazarbayev were coming to Turkmenistan to meet with
Berdimuhammedov, the three sides probably would negotiate the
creation of a CPC for natural gas.

KAZAKHSTAN: A MODERATING INFLUENCE
--------------


9. (C) The Georgian, Turkish, and Polish Ambassadors in
Ashgabat told Charge that they believed Nazarbayev's presence
at the summit would be a positive influence, and that he
probably would be able to talk Berdimuhammedov out of making
any definitive commitments to Putin.


10. (C) In a May 4 meeting with Charge, visiting Chevron
executives said that it was no coincidence that Kazakhstan's
Prime Minister Masimov met with Berdimuhammedov prior to his
reception of the Chevron delegation -- Masimov, they said,
was probably "coaching" Berdimuhammedov on how to handle
discussions on energy. Hollingsworth said that Nazarbayev
was a "master" at balancing competing foreign interests.

NAZARBAYEV TRAVELING ON TO WARSAW?
--------------


11. (C) The Georgian Ambassador said that Putin was flying to
Kazakhstan on May 9 prior to his arrival in Ashgabat, and
would meet with Nazarbayev to try to talk him out of
attending a European Energy Security Meeting, scheduled to
take place on May 14 in Warsaw.

COMMENT
--------------

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12. (C) The fanfare surrounding Putin's impending arrival in
Ashgabat and the upcoming summit has been large and
warranted. Putin's last visit to Turkmenistan was in 2002,
and his warm reception of Berdimuhammedov in Moscow assured
that Turkmenistan's president would pull out all the stops to
impress his guest. Berdimuhammedov -- busy with visiting
delegations, all interested in a share of Turkmenistan's
energy wealth -- has been thrown into the deep end on energy
negotiations, and the upcoming summit represents a new level
of discussion for an inexperienced leader. Russia and
Kazakhstan's motivation for an expanded littoral pipeline
likely is prompted by the desire to reduce dependence on
transiting Uzbekistan. Chevron's delegation last week, along
with BP's planned May 14-17 seven-person delegation, have
raised the stakes for Berdimuhammedov, and all sides are
watching to see which way the new president will look for
energy development. End Comment.
BRUSH