Moderate Changes Mark Turkmenistan's Agricultural People's

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000348

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ECON EAGR KDEM TX
SUBJECT: Moderate Changes Mark Turkmenistan's Agricultural People's
Council Meeting

Reftel: A) Ashgabat 328

B) 05 Ashgabat 1192

Summary
--------------


1. (U) President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov
followed in the footsteps of his predecessor, Saparmyrat Niyazov,
with his unanimous election as Chairman of the national People's
Council (Halk Maslahaty) during an extraordinary March 30 session.
This was followed by a unanimous decision amending the national
constitution regarding the People's Council to reflect what was put
into practice following the death of President Niyazov on December
21, 2006. These brief agenda items were succeeded by 39 speakers
who, with Berdimuhammedov's encouragement, spoke with (relative)
frankness about the agricultural situation. At the end of the
meeting, the People's Council unanimously adopted the three draft
agricultural laws that were proposed and published prior to the
meeting (ref A).


2. (SBU) While participants continued to offer figurative curtseys
to Niyazov's legacy, the session's focus on improving the
agricultural sector implicitly undermined successive speakers'
claims that Niyazov's attention to agriculture had been beneficial
to the sector. There were no surprises -- until the president
concluded the event with the unexpected announcement that the state
would increase teachers' salaries and university student stipends by
40% in the 2007-2008 academic year. Berdimuhammedov also gave
government leaders ten days to prepare a document for his signature
that incorporated the speakers' requests and recommendations. End
Summary.

The Setting
--------------


3. (SBU) The largely scripted five-hour meeting began with
Berdimuhammedov taking center-stage in a theater specially
commissioned by Niyazov for the March 2007 People's Council meeting.
The recently completed marble and gold theater, adorned with
Niyazov-era glitz and symbols (pictures of Niyazov and signs of
Niyazov's spiritual guidebooks Ruhnama and Ruhnama II) was filled to
capacity with 2,604 attendees, including 2,489 delegates. The five
regional delegations rehearsed "spontaneous" demonstrations of
affection for the new president while awaiting the start, waving
national flags, banners and portraits of the first president. Every
speaker, from minister to token farmer, began his speech by praising
the new president for his successes thus far, including the new
social security law, and wishing him continued success. To a
person, the speakers praised former President Niyazov's attention to
the agricultural sector and concurrently encouraged delegates to
pass the three draft laws to improve Turkmenistan's agriculture (ref
A).

Some Thing(s) Old
--------------


4. (SBU) In keeping with historical practice, the unanimously
elected chairperson, Berdimuhammedov, came prepared for his new role
and immediately appointed the Speaker of the Parliament (Mejlis),
Akja Nuberdiyeva, as the First Deputy of the People's Council, and
First Secretary of the Democratic Party of Turkmenistan, Onjuk
Musayev, as the Deputy Chairman of the People's Council. Both
deputies had pre-selected seats on either side of Berdimuhammedov.



5. (SBU) The speakers represented a broad cross-section of the
public-sector agricultural industry, but there were no

ASHGABAT 00000348 002 OF 003


private-sector representatives. Each of the five regional governors
had an opportunity to speak. When the governor of Dashoguz Region
proposed to an enthusiastically supportive crowd the creation of a
new district, the president immediately signed a decree. And,
although the meeting was introduced by Berdimuhammedov as a
"discussion," he alone directed questions and comments to several of
the senior presenters, including a direct admonition to the Minister
of Agriculture Esenmyrat Orazgeldiyev to "speak directly, not
philosophically" about changes that were needed in agriculture.

Some Thing(s) New
--------------


6. (SBU) Senior members of the diplomatic corps, who were strongly
encouraged to attend the event, agreed that the atmosphere was
substantially more relaxed than in Niyazov's day, when the late
president would make caustic and sometimes insulting comments to
speakers. Although the presenters were obviously hand-picked and
rehearsed, there were several frank comments that showed incremental
signs of a sector-wide reality check. Notably, the words "crop
rotation" were uttered by several speakers, as was the need for
increased prices being paid to farmers for wheat and cotton. Most
outstanding was Governor of Balkan Region Orazmyrat Niyazliyev's
distinct omission of any discussion of cotton for his region.
(Note: The Balkan region suffers from insufficient water resources
and poor soil, both of which are necessary for cotton growing. End
Note.) Instead, Niyazliyev's assessment focused on the regional
development of fruit, vegetables, dairy products and livestock (ref
B).


7. (U) During his closing speech, Berdimuhammedov promised to raise
teachers' salaries and university students' stipends beginning with
the 2007-2008 academic school year, and the March 31 edition of the
state-owned Russian language newspaper, "Neutral Turkmenistan,"
confirmed that salaries would be increased by 40%. Berdimuhammedov
also made a $3 million grant to finish the 10-year construction of a
mosque in Mary city that had been halted by Niyazov.

Some Thing(s) Obvious
--------------


8. (SBU) Several speakers focused on water usage, salinization and
depleting water tables. Specifically, the governor of the Dashoguz
Region requested that the government commission a salinization map,
and several others called for higher state prices for wheat and
cotton. All practical suggestions received enthusiastic responses
from the audience. There were several calls for improved technical
assistance, with the governor of Lebap Region noting the need for
improved tractor operator training and the director of the
Scientific Institute in the Ministry of Agriculture saying that
region-specific weather conditions needed to be analyzed for
national planning, along with improved seed selection, specialist
training and crop disease analysis. Berdimuhammedov twice consented
to speakers' calls to increase the state purchase price of wheat.
He also agreed that farmers should sell their cotton to the State
cotton concern, which would pay for their crops upon delivery to its
regional purchasing centers, rather than continuing the practice of
making farmers wait for several months, until after the joint stock
companies sold and delivered the cotton to the final purchasers.
Berdimuhammedov promised the Halk Maslahaty members that a formal
document on this provision would be published in ten days.

Comment
--------------


9. (SBU) The meeting offered little satisfaction to those looking
for sea changes in political and agricultural policy: neither the

ASHGABAT 00000348 003 OF 003


Halk Maslahaty as a body nor Berdimuhammedov made any overt moves to
change either People's Council procedures or the practice of having
the president double-hat as Halk Maslahaty Chairman. However, the
session did reinforce Berdimuhammedov's by-now established approach
to reshaping post-Niyazov Turkmenistan, including both relatively
reality-based public discussion and incremental change. The new
president seems to be touching all of the right social hot buttons.
Perhaps the most striking outcome was the small details in the
supporting events that show a slow change in people's expectations:
the two concerts that sandwiched the meeting included performers who
were banned under Niyazov, and an elder from the host region of
Mary, who challenged Berdimuhammedov during his live-broadcast
arrival at the airport to include Mary province in future
development plans. The next People's Council has been scheduled for
December 2008, after the next election of the council delegates.


10. (SBU) The amalgam of the speakers' suggestions represent an
industry overhaul, although nothing approximating an agricultural
revolution was mentioned. Specifically absent from the draft
legislation (ref A),and missing from all of the presentations, was
the call for land reform. The focal point consistently was on what
the state could do to improve the currently broken public sector
system. Most importantly, there were no changes proposed in the
legislation or presented during the People's Council meeting to
disband the State Agricultural Joint Stock Companies that control
the wheat sector and a majority portion of the cotton sector. End
Comment.

HOAGLAND