Turkmenistan's Second President, Gurbanguly

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 ASHGABAT 000214

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SCA/CEN (NICOLAIDES)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TX
SUBJECT: Turkmenistan's Second President, Gurbanguly
Berdimuhammedov

Reftels: (A) Ashgabat 21, (B) Ashgabat 199

Summary
--------------


1. (SBU) Interim President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov was installed
as Turkmenistan's second president on February 14, after national
election results were announced during a one-hour live broadcast
meeting of the national People's Council. According to Central
Election Commission Chairman Myrat Garryev, Berdimuhammedov received
89.23% of all votes cast during the national election on February

11. Berdimuhammedov re-affirmed his campaign promises during his
inaugural speech, emphasizing his commitment to all terms of
Turkmenistan's existing international (i.e., oil and gas)
agreements. His prepared speech did not depart from or extend his
familiar platform policies, though it did give a few additional
specific details. In accordance with the constitution,
Berdimuhammedov accepted the resignations of all ministers and
Deputy Chairmen of the Cabinet of Ministers, but asked that they
remain at their posts until he announced their successors; he
replaced the Education Minister on February 16, and is likely to
make more changes in the oil and gas sector. The day following his
inauguration he reintroduced the tenth year of mandatory
secondary-school education and a 5 year higher-education program.
Berdimuhammedov treated the diplomatic corps and his government to a
joyous banquet on February 19, the dual Flag Day/Niyazov's Birthday
holiday, where he requested his typically dour "men in black"
cabinet and guests to doff their suit jackets and join in with a
local folk dancing troupe. Though homage still was paid to Niyazov,
his epithet is being downgraded from "great leader" to "our first
president." The solemn and entirely scripted inaugural event was
unsurprising in format and displayed ample hold-over elements from
the Niyazov regime, but the transition, in less than a week, to
downplaying Niyazov and emphasizing a bright future will be accepted
by most citizens here as valid and -- potentially -- a new
beginning. End Summary.

Election Results
--------------


2. (SBU) The 2507 People's Council members were reportedly assembled
at the meeting venue at 0400 on Inauguration Day, February 14.
Obviously fatigued, Central Election Commission Chairman Garryev
read his prepared explanation of the presidential election process
with no unscripted editorial comments glorifying the process or the
former president, as was standard for Garryev during the Niyazov
era. After asserting that both the OSCE and the UN had an
opportunity to learn about Turkmenistan's electoral process on
February 11, he read the following election results, to little
audience response:

Number of registered voters: 2,677,589

Turnout: 98.65%

Candidates' voting tabulations, read in alphabetical order:

Ammanniyaz Atajykov 3.23%
Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov 89.23%
Orazmyrat Garajayev 1.55%
Muhammetnazar Gurbanov 2.37%
Ishanguly Nuryev 2.38%
Ashyrniyaz Pomanov 1.31%

(Comment: The sum total is slightly over 100% of all registered
voters, even before allowance for invalid ballots or voters who live
abroad and could not vote. End Comment.)

The Halk Maslahaty Meeting
--------------


ASHGABAT 00000214 002 OF 004



3. (U) The six presidential candidates were seated front and center
as honorary elder Myratberdi Sopiyev opened the meeting by
requesting Acting President Berdimuhammedov to preside.
Berdimuhammedov declined the honor, and the motion to the Council
was made and unanimously accepted for the Secretary of the Political
Council of the National Democratic Party, Onjuk Musayev, to preside.
No new People's Council Chairman was elected to succeed Niyazov,
who had held the post. Attending heads of state and senior
diplomats were escorted in during the opening remarks. Musayev
announced for unanimous confirmation the official attendance
numbers, the meeting's agenda, and the 19 chairmen of the People's
Council. The latter included the six presidential candidates,
deputy ministers of the cabinet of ministers, Foreign Minister
Rashit Meredov, two elders with the honorary title of "Hero of
Turkmenistan," and leaders of public associations.

The Inauguration
--------------


4. (U) A small military cadre provided the inaugural accoutrements
and shared the stage with Berdimuhammedov, who was otherwise alone,
during his swearing-in. Berdimuhammedov laid his hand on the
constitution and swore his allegiance to the people of Turkmenistan.
After reading the oath, he showed his allegiance to Turkmenistan by
touching the national flag to his lips and forehead three times, an
act used during some military swearing-in ceremonies. Garryev then
presented Berdimuhammedov with a presidential certificate.


5. (SBU) The formal swearing-in was complemented by a cultural
presentation of gifts to the new president. Honorary
representatives from each of Turkmenistan's five regions presented
the new president with a ceremonious necklace and offered
congratulations. Additionally, the new president participated in
four symbolic acts to ensure a positive future for Turkmenistan:
standing on a white felt rug to start his presidency on a
"successful and safe path," blessing Turkmen bread as a sign of
prosperity, accepting a quiver of arrows symbolizing strength in
unity, and touching the Koran and the combined Ruhnama and Ruhnama
II volumes to his forehead to show national solidarity in shared
values.


6. (U) At the conclusion of the ceremony, Berdimuhammedov accepted
the resignations of all individual ministers and Deputy Chairmen in
the Cabinet of Ministers, proffered before the Halk Maslahaty in a
short speech "in accordance with the constitution" by Deputy
Chairman for Oil and Gas Gurbanmyrat Atayev. Berdimuhammedov asked
the ministers and deputy chairmen to remain until he appointed a new
cabinet, and all agreed. The new president went down to shake the
hands of the ranking foreign dignitaries seated in the front row,
then took a seat between President of Ukraine Yushchenko and
President of Kazakhstan Nazarbayev for the follow-on musical
concert.

Inaugural Address
--------------


7. (U) In his 12-15 minute inaugural speech, Berdimuhammedov praised
the dignity and openness of the presidential election. He promised
to serve faithfully, rely on the people, and obey the constitution.
As he did in introducing his platform on January 3 (ref A),he
undertook to continue the current social policies of providing free
gas, electric power, water and salt, as well as subsidized gasoline,
diesel, housing and medical care. He noted that new agricultural
policies would be presented at the March 20 People's Council
session. In other areas, Berdimuhammedov said his policies would
be:

-- (Foreign policy): to continue Turkmenistan's permanent neutrality
and commitments to the terms of all existing international
agreements, including in the energy sector.


ASHGABAT 00000214 003 OF 004


-- (Education): to increase secondary education to 10 years, and
work toward international recognition of Turkmenistan's secondary
educational diplomas; to maintain the 3-language school-instruction
policy (Turkmen, English, Russian); to add vocational training
opportunities within secondary-school curricula; and to reintroduce
physical education courses at the secondary level. At the
university level: to increase the number of university students,
augment institutions of higher education in the provinces, improve
the overall quality of university education, and train more students
abroad.

-- (Healthcare): to increase the number of doctors in hospitals,
improve domestic medical education, build oncology and neurosurgical
hospitals in Ashgabat, and increase the number of clinics and
hospitals for mothers and children in the regions.

-- (Free enterprise, loans, job opportunities): to increase support
for private companies and provide a favorable tax regime to
encourage private enterprise; to continue to make more loans
available for apartment mortgages as well as private house
purchases; to increase job opportunities, looking in particular to
the textile sector as a source of additional employment.

- (Transportation and communications): to upgrade transportation by
purchasing more planes, trains and automobiles; to improve telephone
networks, including cell phones, along with Internet access.


8. (SBU) The government broadcast live the arrival of each foreign
delegation and posted the names of the senior delegation members on
the front page of the state-run newspaper. Compared to the very
recent past, Niyazov's cult of personality was in subdued appearance
during the inauguration, though still prominent: on lapel pins
(including Berdimuhammedov's),in Niyazov's immense stage portrait,
in the inclusion of the Ruhnama adjacent to the Koran as part of the
cultural inauguration, in references made by various speakers
including Berdimuhammedov to continuing Niyazov's policies, and in
the postage-stamp image on the upper-right corner of the state TV
broadcast screen.

Decrees
--------------


9. (U) On February 15 Berdimuhammedov issued decrees mandating a
return to 10 years of mandatory education and 5 years of higher
education in certain fields. On February 16 he appointed a new
Education Minister (septel),and on February 19 he issued a decree
on establishing a government commission to review citizens'
complaints about law enforcement activities, a step widely viewed as
preparing ground to address rule-of-law and corruption issues.

Flag Day
--------------


10. (SBU) Berdimuhammedov's administration literally went into full
swing at the state banquet held in honor of the February 19 combined
Flag Day/President Niyazov birthday event -- not typically an event
warranting a state banquet. Berdimuhammedov invited the diplomatic
corps, his government and representatives of Turkmenistan's main
cultural institutions to a sit-down five course banquet in the
presidential banquet hall usually reserved for state visits.
Confidently striding into the room, Berdimuhmmedov's first request
was for the men to remove their jackets and relax, an abrupt
departure from the typical Niyazov event wherein guests faced a dour
phalanx of Niyazov's men in black and glumly counted the hours of
drone-on speeches glorifying Niyazov. Instead, speeches
congratulating Berdimuhammedov and welcoming a new era in
Turkmenistan were punctuating with catchy dances performed by a
local troupe, with government officials inviting diplomats and other
guests to get up and dance. As hokey as this event may sound, the
joyous mood was infectious, as if an enormous weight had been
lifted.

ASHGABAT 00000214 004 OF 004



COMMENT
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11. (SBU) No word or detail broke new ground in Berdimuhammedov's
inauguration speech, which was plainly meant as a simple
reaffirmation of his combined platform and stump commitments since
his opening January 3 campaign speech. While this lack of new
substance might disappoint the minority who had hoped
Berdimuhammedov might use the occasion for a further modest
demonstration of progressive intent, it is consistent with what we
judge to be traditional Turkmenistan society's consensus expectation
that change can -- and for safety's sake, probably should -- only
proceed at a very deliberate, moderate pace. The flag-day event
demonstrates an emerging cautious sense of optimism and hope for the
future, sentiments heretofore alien to the average citizen of
Turkmenistan. End Comment.

BRUSH