Turkmenistan's Presidential Candidates Raise Hopes With

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ASHGABAT 000021

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR/PPD, EUR/ACE, SCA/CEN (TPERRY),and IIP/G

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KPAO TX
SUBJECT: Turkmenistan's Presidential Candidates Raise Hopes With
Promises of Substantive Reform

SUMMARY
--------------


1. (U) All channels of Turkmenistan State television were tuned to
the first campaign meeting of two presidential hopefuls on the night
of January 3, 2007, at a townhall-style gathering held at the Mekan
Palace in Ashgabat. The Ashgabat-based candidates, Deputy Minister
of the Oil and Gas Industry and Mineral Resources Ishanguly Nuryev
and Acting President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov, sat on a dais
before over 1,000 Ashgabat City "voters" assembled to hear the
candidates' platforms and ask follow-up questions. While both
candidates made positive statements in support of reform
(Berdimuhammedov also repeatedly emphasized stability),
Berdimuhammedov's presentation suggested a substantive break from
the past. His proposed reforms signaled a retreat from some
Niyazov-era policies that have damaged the education and health care
systems, denied private access to the Internet and discouraged
private enterprise, while maintaining support for the social
contract through continued provision of free utilities, and cheap
fuel, flour, and transport. While Berdimuhammedov's intentions
appear enlightened, post remains skeptical given similar unfulfilled
promises -- many of which were cruelly contradicted -- by President
Niyazov and by Berdimuhammedov himself while he was serving as
Niyazov's deputy. End Summary.

Nuryev's Speech Positive But Unsurprising
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2. (U) The deputy hakim (mayor) of Ashgabat, Ogulhan Ilgeldyeva
(also Chairman of the Ashgabat City Election Committee),opened the
January 3 meeting, ceding the podium first to Nuryev and then to
Berdimukhammedov. Each candidate took the microphone only after
being introduced by an advocate, who reviewed the candidate's
biography, career path and character, and appealed directly for
votes. The audience consisted of Ashgabat city residents: the
elderly, members of the Central Election Committee, employees of
various city enterprises, journalists and students. A billboard
outside the hall displayed the pictures and biographical information
on each of the six presidential candidates.


3. (U) Nuryev's advocate claimed that he was the best candidate
because he was a self-made man who had worked his way up from common
laborer to state representative, winning numerous prestigious state
awards and a high degree of respect along the way. Nuryev then took
the floor, promising a gradual transition to a market economy,
continued provision of subsidized social services, and improved
living standards. He emphasized expanding the agricultural sector
through market-oriented reform and continuing "progress" in the
education sector consistent with former President Niyazov's
policies. In response to questions from the audience, Nuryev
promised further growth of the oil and gas sector and an increase in
salaries and pensions. He said that the Ruhnama would continue to
be taught in schools.

Berdimukhammedov Leads With Promise of Stability
-------------- ---


4. (U) Guldjemal Ezizova, who introduced herself as a colleague of
Berdimuhammedov, introduced the interim president and urged that he
be elected because he was a companion of the late president; was an
honest, responsible person, faithful to his motherland; and had
contributed greatly to the development of independent, neutral
Turkmenistan. Berdimuhammedov then stated that he did not want to
use his temporary incumbency to the disadvantage of the other
candidates and therefore would donate his share of TV and radio time
to the other candidates. He also expressed pleasure that the Halk
Maslahaty (People's Council) had chosen five other candidates,
ensuring an open and competitive race, but added that, if there had
had more time to prepare, even more qualified candidates might have
been proposed.


5. (U) Asserting that his plan was based on and would continue the
policies of Niyazov, Berdimuhammedov maintained that he would:

-- Adhere to all international treaties, contracts and extant

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intergovernmental relationships;
-- Seek to expand the energy sector;
-- Continue reform of the agricultural sector and adhere to
realistic production targets;
-- End the distortion of agricultural production statistics;
-- Create jobs by building new factories and supporting
establishment of small and medium enterprises;
-- Maintain current low prices for fuel, flour and other staples and
subsidies for communal services, including public transportation;
-- Keep taxes low (Note: The tax on private enterprises is two
percent, while livestock, agricultural production and land are
tax-exempt. End Note.);
-- Further develop Turkmenistan's transportation and communication
systems;
-- Continue to provide loans at favorable rates;
-- Support private ownership of land for home construction and
farming; and
-- Double all pensions, student stipends, salaries, and other social
assistance payments in January 2008 (a promise that Niyazov made
during the October, 2006 meeting of Parliament.)

Education and Health: A True Promise of Reform?
-------------- ---


6. (U) Responding to a question about his plans for the education
sector, Berdymuhammedov promised construction of new schools and
universities. Expanding this theme, he summarized Niyazov's
educational policy and said that, although those policies had made
sense at the time, "that stage has passed"; Turkmenistan needed
educated people. To that end, subjects that had been removed from
school and university curricula would be brought back in order to
bring Turkmenistan's education to international standards -- and
make it possible for local degrees to be recognized internationally.
(Comment: Such a statement would have been interpreted as
criticism under Niyazov, as, until now, the host government has not
tolerated any suggestion that there is room for improvement in the
education sector. End Comment.)


7. (U) Berdimuhammedov pledged to extend mandatory secondary
schooling from the current 9 years to 10 years, and to extend
university study to 5 years of theory (up from 2 years of theory and
2 years of practical experience). Extracurricular courses such as
physical education would be reintroduced. Like Nuryev,
Berdimuhammedov emphasized Niyazov's goal of promoting foreign
language study, but went further, stating his support for sending
Turkmenistan's gifted youth to higher educational institutions
abroad, including in the United States, United Kingdom, France,
Germany, Japan and China. He urged the training of lawyers,
economists, bank specialists, computer programmers, engineers and
other specialists in "highly developed" countries around the world.
He also expressed a belief that every citizen of Turkmenistan should
have access to Internet and new technologies.


8. (U) In the health sector, Berdimuhammedov promised construction
of hospitals and sanatoriums; he also promised to equip these
facilities fully. New pharmaceutical factories would be built in
Turkmenistan, those medicines that cannot be produced locally would
be imported. The state would dedicate greater resources to
preventive medicine and would reform the curricula of the medical
institute and colleges to reflect international standards.


9. (U) In response to a question about construction projects and
plans for Ashgabat, Berdimuhammedov promised to implement Niyazov's
plans, which ran through 2014 and included construction of a Halk
Maslahaty building and development of the area along the Archabil
street in the foothills of the Kopetdag mountains. Responding to a
question about leisure facilities for children, he claimed that one
of his top priorities was to build or improve resorts and camps for
children in Geokdere (Chuli),the provinces and especially on the
Caspian Sea shore.

Meredov: "It's As If He Was Listening to You"
-------------- -


10. (U) During a meeting late on January 4, Foreign Minister Rashit

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Meredov drew the Charge's attention to Berdimuhammedov's statements.
"It was almost as if he was listening to you (during our January 3
meeting)," he said.

COMMENT
--------------


9. (SBU) Turkmenistan's interim leaders are attempting a clumsy
charm offensive with the diplomatic and international organization
community. OSCE Ambassador Djikic told A/DCM January 5 that
Minister Meredov, as he handed over the letter accepting the January
8-9 visit of an election needs assessment team from the OSCE Office
of Democratic Initiatives and Human Rights (ODIHR),said he hoped
that the visit would represent the beginning of increased
cooperation between the OSCE and Turkmenistan. While post still
does not believe that Turkmenistan's leaders are ready to embrace
democracy, we do believe that the contrived nomination process and
klutsy attempt to make the elections appear fair and open are
genuine positive steps for a country that has lived in isolation and
seclusion for its entire existence. DAS Feigenbaum's visit will
provide an invaluable measure of how far and how quickly
post-Niyazov Turkmenistan is willing to reform. End comment.

BRUSH