TURKMENISTAN ELECTION DAY: HOPEFUL EXPECTANCY AMID

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 000184

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SCA/CEN (PERRY),SCA/PPD, EUR/ACE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PINR TX US
SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN ELECTION DAY: HOPEFUL EXPECTANCY AMID
EXAGGERATED OFFICIAL TURNOUT FIGURES

REF: ASHGABAT/SES-O FEBRUARY 11 E-MAIL

SUMMARY
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1. (SBU) Turkmenistan's election-day proceedings were smooth,
relaxed and imbued with genuine, unusual popular enthusiasm over the
day's proceedings. The already-broadcast official turnout figure of
98.25% is not credible, but should not wreck appreciation of the
day's upside: Ashgabat long-timers, unanimously seconded by Embassy
FSNs, sensed a novel atmosphere of national pride and hopeful
expectancy. END SUMMARY.

ACTIVE, RELAXED, FESTIVE
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2. (SBU) Turkmenistan's presidential election-day activity
proceeded unhindered through the polls' scheduled closing at 6 p.m.
on February 11, based on observation by seven separate embassy teams
visiting polling stations in Ashgabat and its surrounding districts.
Throughout, the atmosphere was completely orderly, low-key and
festive amid a slightly heightened uniformed security presence.
Music and dance groups of young children at polling centers located
in schools and clinics were ubiquitous, adding a celebratory
atmosphere. Ashgabat long-timers generally voiced the impression
that popular enthusiasm and restrained optimism over the day's
proceedings was genuine and unusual. Embassy FSNs and Turkmenistan
citizens unanimously confirm that the day's broad atmosphere of
hopeful expectancy was novel, at least in the past fifteen years.


3. (U) Turnout at the outset was scant in most areas, but picked up
broadly by 9:00. Embassy teams who covered previous, local
elections consistently estimate they witnessed substantially more
entering the stations than participated in either the July 2007
elections for members of village councils, or the December 2007
polls for members of district-level people's councils. Charge was
told by officials at four polling sites that between 66% and 85% of
the respective registered voters had cast ballots by very early
afternoon. Local media reported turnout numbers for different
regions (in improbably real time) throughout the afternoon:
typically 65% by noon, 85% by 2 p.m. and so forth.


4. (U) For the most part, poll officials were conspicuously relaxed
and indeed welcoming of the embassy presence. Indeed, they often
tried to insist on inviting embassy teams into the polling premises
for tea (a hospitable gesture, but improper under standard election
rules). A large OSCE delegation visited the University polling
station in downtown Ashgabat at 10 a.m. escorted by MFA limos and
personnel plus official TV cameras.

UN-WESTERN STANDARDS, DEFINITELY
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5. (SBU) Notwithstanding polling officials' enthusiasm, meticulous
regard for various basic technical electoral standards was
indisputably lacking. Doors in at least some observed precincts
were open before 8 a.m., and there were no evident steps or activity
within to demonstrate that the transparent urns had initially been
empty, etc. Likewise, although we regularly observed families
entering en masse -- i.e., with all adult family members casting
their own votes (as the new Election Law stipulates),rather than
depending on a single family member voting for all other members (a
practice widespread in the past) -- the old practice was still much
alive this time, too, as numerous FSN anecdotes of indirect voting
within their own families bear out. Mobile ballot boxes also were
extensively taken to residences; even though the law designates them
to be used only for invalids or pensioners unable to get to the
voting points, there are anecdotal accounts that their use was more
indiscriminate. Post also heard accounts of voters registered at
one polling station who were allowed to cast their votes at another
polling place.


6. (SBU) What was clear was that voting was taken with utmost

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seriousness as a whole both by organizers and participants. Not
that there were multitudes at any point, but FSNs confirm that never
in past elections have they encountered so many others waiting in
line to vote. We have first-hand reports of election workers
visiting buildings throughout the day to remind/urge voters to do
their civic duty, mirroring the saturation visits by such workers to
promulgate voter lists in the weeks before Election Day.

Marring the Picture: Official Turn-Out Claims
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7. (U) This positive glow was marred by the official final turnout
figures. Released even before the morning of February 12, these
depicted turnout in the 97-99% range for each of Turkmenistan's six
regions. This claim was manifestly absurd. Several embassy
observers counted the number of voters entering the polling station
in various five-minute intervals at various times of the day; with
few exceptions the result averaged one to two per minute. Post sees
no way to square this metric with near-total turnout. There would
also seem to be the issue of registered Turkmenistan citizens living
abroad, who by definition were almost certainly unable to vote
(unless another family member voted for them),though guesses of
their total number vary so wildly (from a few tens of thousands to a
million) that no estimate of this effect can be hazarded.

COMMENT
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8. (SBU) Exaggerated turnout figures aside, post assesses the
events of February 11 to be consistent with the notion that this
first "contested" presidential election overall was a half-step in
the right electoral direction for Turkmenistan, and was broadly
sensed as such by the population. End Comment.

BRUSH