TURKMENISTAN'S BERDIMUHAMEDOV IN BRUSSELS: A BRIEF

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASHGABAT 001227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, SCA/PPD, EEB, DRL

TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EINV EPET SCUL EU TX

SUBJECT: TURKMENISTAN'S BERDIMUHAMEDOV IN BRUSSELS: A BRIEF
DEBRIEF


1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Berdimuhamedov's November 5-7 visit to
Brussels seemed to reinforce that Turkmenistan is following its own
path and, as yet, has little interest in the kinds of
outward-looking compromises that could make it truly an
international player. In energy, Berdimuhamedov significantly
enunciated a new position. He said, "If it is in our strategic
interest to reduce natural gas volumes to Russia and China to meet
European demand, we will do so." The EU agreed to open a full EU
Delegation presence in Ashgabat by 2009 or 2010. END SUMMARY.


3. (SBU) Charge met with French Ambassador Christian Lechervy on
November 12 for a read-out of President Berdimuhamedov's November
5-7 visit to Brussels (France is the EU contact embassy in
Ashgabat). Lechervy said most of the meetings were set pieces with
well-known positions rehearsed by both sides.

TURKMEN GAS TO EUROPE


4. (SBU) In Brussels, Berdimuhamedov restated Turkmenistan's
familiar policy that it sells its gas at its border, and it's up to
others to get it out. He cited the Chinese as an excellent model of
cooperation: "They know what they want and are building the
pipeline." He reportedly complained, as usual, that the Europeans
and Americans only "talk at him" but refuse to present a concrete
proposal for a pipeline to Europe. EU Energy Commissioner Piebalgs
replied to Berdimuhamedov private companies cannot commit to
investments that would include expensive new pipelines if they don't
know the volume of natural gas reserves. Berdimuhamedov vowed he
personally guarantees the volumes exist, and investors must trust
his word. However, he said, "If it is in our strategic interest to
reduce volumes to Russia and China to meet European demand, we will
do so." He also confirmed he has told Russian President Putin that
he now wants $150 per thousand cubic meters, instead of the current
$100 that Gazprom pays. (NOTE: This is still more than $100 below
market prices. END NOTE.)


5. (SBU) Lechervy described as "wishful thinking" rumors that
Turkmenistan and the EU signed in Brussels a memorandum of
understanding (MOU) on energy. He clarified that the EU offered the
text of an MOU similar to the one signed with Kazakhstan four or
five months ago, but the Turkmenistanis said only they would study
it.


6. (U) Energy Commissioner Piebalgs will attend the Turkmenistan
International Oil and Gas Exhibition in Ashgabat on November 15.
His official delegation will include representatives from BP, Total,
and OMV (Austria).

HUMAN RIGHTS


7. (U) According to Lechervy, the Europeans diplomatically chided
Berdimuhamedov for not acting on "lists they have submitted to him
for action." Reportedly, Berdimuhamedov took it in stride.


8. (SBU) Charge suggested the United States and the EU should join
forces, under the auspices of the UN, to submit a combined list
soonest so that Turkmenistan has time to take at least some action
before the UN International Conference to commemorate the opening of
the UN Preventative Diplomacy Center in Ashgabat, December 10-12.
Lechervy was sympathetic but questioned whether there would be time
for full coordination with the EU at this late date, since all
member states must concur, and "that could take months."

BUSINESS


9. (SBU) The Belgian corporation ENEX sponsored a business dinner
for Berdimuhamedov that 150 mostly European business representatives
attended. Berdimuhamedov arrived late, and then apparently did the
same power-point presentation he used at the Eurasia Group luncheon

ASHGABAT 00001227 002 OF 002


in September in New York. Lechervy commented the signals were "at
best mixed."


10. (SBU) Berdimuhamedov spent 20 minutes touting the Avaza Tourist
Zone development project near Turkmenbashy on the Caspian coast.
Lechervy commented that the grandiose project is a "Soviet-style
fantasy" that was an ide fixe of former President Niyazov. In the
late 1990s, Club Mediterranean looked into the proposal, "but ran
away laughing." Lechervy said Turkmenistan gives no indication it
is willing to relax its draconian, intelligence-agency-controlled
visa regime and has no serious plans, despite generalized statements
to the contrary, to rebuild the Turkmenbashy airport which "has no
decent air traffic control, no ability to receive modern aircraft, a
highly dangerous tarmac, no fire-fighting service, and no
international-standard refueling capability." Lechervy mused that
at best Avaza will be an "upscale Soviet sanatoria project, circa
1983." That said, the French construction firm Bouygues will
participate "for profit."


11. (SBU) Adding to the "mixed signals" evaluation, Lechervy said
the French citizen manager of DGTL Logistics, servicing the oil and
gas industry, a long-time resident in Turkmenistan, was denied
re-entry at the Ashgabat airport on November 9 when returning from
his regional headquarters in Dubai. He was detained at the airport
for 24 hours and then deported with no explanation. Lechervy noted
this follows on the heels of the deportation of the Turkish-Turkmen
Hospital's English-speaking and international-standard Jordanian
physician, Dr. Yahyah, two weeks ago.

EDUCATION


12. (SBU) Lechervy said Berdimuhamedov made education a key point
of his presentations, saying he wants Turkmenistan to reach
international standards as soon as possible. But, Berdimuhamedov
reportedly added, "We do not need assistance. We need your support
for our goal." Lechervy questioned what Berdimuhamedov means by
support, noting Turkmenistan has rejected four of five EU-TACIS
offers of cooperation on education.


13. (SBU) COMMENT: We'd suggest there might be an element of
Gallic world-weariness in this read-out. However, it does not
radically depart from our own close observations in recent months.
It seems what we need to understand is Turkmenistan under
Berdimuhamedov chooses to follow its own path and is not necessarily
open to cooperation in the sense of meeting-of-the-minds middle
ground. Sometimes it almost seems Turkmenistan's position is "Do it
our way, or bye-bye." Opportunities for positive cooperation do
indeed exist, and will sometimes pop up unexpectedly -- e.g., State
TV recently asking for U.S. expert trainers. It is essential we
remain optimistic, but we need more than ever to try to figure out
how to couch our positions in terms that make sense to the current
powers that be in Turkmenistan. END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND