LUKEWARM COMORAN REACTION TO LATEST AU MEETING

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000998

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS EAID PHUM CN
SUBJECT: LUKEWARM COMORAN REACTION TO LATEST AU MEETING



1. (U) Six "concerned" African Foreign Ministers met in Cape Town
September 18 to discuss the ongoing de facto secession in Anjouan,
Union of the Comoros. This Ministerial Council adopted the
recommendations of an experts group that met in Addis Ababa
September 4. While the declaration calls for some tough measures to
force renegade Anjouan Colonel Mohamed Bacar's hand, these will not
go into effect until the African Union Peace and Security Council
meets in early October to decide on the mechanism for
implementation.


2. (SBU) News of the Cape Town conclusions received lukewarm
reaction from the Government of the Union of the Comoros, who have
long insisted the AU must use tough measures - even force - to bring
Bacar into the fold and restore unity in the country. President
Sambi, recently pictured in the local press in camouflage military
attire viewing military equipment donated by Morocco, has already
told the Ambassador he is planning - as his last choice -- a
unilateral military option against Anjouan.


3. (SBU) Union officials and other contacts in Moroni support in
general the latest Cape Town recommendations, namely individual
sanctions and a selective embargo of Anjouan. If anything, Comorans
are disappointed that Bacar has yet again bought more time for his
illegitimate regime. If implemented by the AU Peace and Security
Council in October, the sanctions would remain in place for 45 days
and then be reviewed to assess their effectiveness.


4. (SBU) AU Envoy in Moroni Mourad confirmed the South African
Government flew Colonel Bacar to Cape Town to present his case to
the gathered ministers. Mourad's read-out was of vintage Bacar: a
range of legalistic arguments, complaints of electoral code
violations, a proposal for a round table on Comoran federalism, and
demands for face-to-face meetings with Union President Sambi.
Bacar's coup de grace, and a deal-breaker for all other
stakeholders, was to reject the AU demand for Anjouan island
elections before anything else.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: From President Sambi to the average Comoran, AU
attention to their crisis is welcome but patience is wearing thin.
For this reason, the 45-day deadline and the continued possibility
of AU military coercion are probably welcome. Further delays,
however, are likely to push the reluctant Sambi closer toward
unilateral action. Minister of External Relations Jaffar and other
senior officials share Post's view that Comoros could be a
(relatively)"easy win" for the AU if political will can be found.
The alternative, a Comoran-only solution to the Anjouan crisis, will
result in loss of life and probably set the Comoros back into its
historical vicious cycle of political instability. END COMMENT.


6. (U) Post sent the full text of the September 4 Addis Ababa
meeting of experts report - marked "restricted" -- to the Desk and
USAU. This is the recommendation that is to be forwarded to the
Council of Peace and Security to be implemented.

MARQUARDT