Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANTANANARIVO815
2007-08-16 13:50:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

COMORAN PRESIDENT CONSIDERING MILITARY OPTION

Tags:  PGOV PREL AU EAID PHUM PINR ASEC MOPS CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000815 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USAU FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E DROTHSTEIN AND CKOLLMAR
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
NSC FOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU EAID PHUM PINR ASEC MOPS CN
SUBJECT: COMORAN PRESIDENT CONSIDERING MILITARY OPTION

REF: ANTANANARIVO 779 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires George N. Sibley for reasons 1.4 B,D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000815

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

USAU FOR AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E DROTHSTEIN AND CKOLLMAR
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
NSC FOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL AU EAID PHUM PINR ASEC MOPS CN
SUBJECT: COMORAN PRESIDENT CONSIDERING MILITARY OPTION

REF: ANTANANARIVO 779 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires George N. Sibley for reasons 1.4 B,D


1. (C) SUMMARY: Comoran President Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed
Sambi wants the AU to take control of Anjouan by force to
allow free elections there, and he believes this could be
done without bloodshed. However, he will not wait
indefinitely and has a plan for Union forces to take Anjouan
- which he concedes will likely result in substantial lives
lost. Despite the Anjouan crisis, Sambi was optimistic he
could better the lives of the Comoran people, if he had
adequate resources. He asked the IMF and World Bank not to
hesitate to finance development in the Comoros. Post agrees
with Sambi,s assessment that a Comoran Union intervention
will be bloodier than an AU one; we also suspect he will take
action in the coming weeks if the AU continues urging talks
and the Anjouan rebel leader remains recalcitrant. END
SUMMARY.

Union Preparing To Take Anjouan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (C) Speaking privately before dinner, President Sambi
expressed disappointment with the African Union's (AU) lack
of will to deal forcefully with Anjouan rebel Colonel Mohamed
Bacar (reftels). Noting previous strong words from the AU in
Cape Town, Sambi perceived a weakening of the AU's resolve.
He emphasized that Grande Comore and Moheli held free and
fair island president elections, but Anjouan's Bacar
continues to stonewall by preventing a transparent election
there overseen by AU observers. Sambi assured that Bacar was
unpopular in Anjouan, ruled by force and intimidation, and
would surely lose a fair vote - thus explaining Bacar's
actions to maintain power by other means.


3. (C) President Sambi said he supported the AU's emphasis
on negotiation with Bacar to find a peaceful and diplomatic
resolution to the crisis, but believed Bacar had proved
himself untrustworthy and that the time for talking had
passed. He reiterated his desire for the AU to take Anjouan
by force, stating that a strong international force could
succeed without sustaining casualties. In the face of a
South African-led military mission, Sambi asserted the
Anjouanese militia would quickly surrender. However, the
President continued, he would not wait indefinitely, and had
a plan for Union forces to attack Anjouan, although he would
not specify timing. While sure of ultimate success, Sambi
said the rebels would fight his forces and this would lead to
substantial loss of life.

Friends of the Comoros
- - - - - - - - - - -


4. (C) Charge d'Affaires Sibley hosted August 14 a dinner
for Union of the Comoros President Ahmed Abdallah Mohamed
Sambi who was in Antananarivo for the Indian Ocean Games.
USAID Mission Director Patrick, World Bank Resident
Representative Blake, International Monetary Fund (IMF)
Resident Representative Van den Boorgearde, African
Development Bank (ADB) Resident Representative Safir, and
Acting DCM Neubert (notetaker) attended. Sambi's Ambassador
to Madagascar and Chief of Protocol accompanied him.


5. (C) A cordial President Sambi thanked the U.S. Embassy
for bringing together friends of the Comoros for dinner, and
passed along his regards to President Bush. Aside from the
Anjouan crisis, he noted that his administration has achieved
relatively little during one year in office due to lack of
resources. Still committed to developing his country and
providing basic services and opportunities to the Comoran
people, Sambi complained he barely has money to pay civil
servants. He noted the IMF's unfortunate decision to put
talks on hold for a new program in light of the Anjouan
crisis - in part because some of the debt to be restructured
or forgiven is loans to Anjouan. The IMF's position stalls
other donors, notably the World Bank, who await positive

ANTANANARI 00000815 002 OF 002


development on a new financing program.


6. (C) IMF ResRep Van den Boorgearde reported progress in
talks with Union finance and budget officials, but was
inflexible regarding the delay in talks until Anjouan could
participate. He suggested the IMF had been at the brink of
an agreement when the Anjouan crisis broke out. World Bank
and ADB ResReps expressed cautious optimism that their
agencies were prepared to work in the Comoros - with the
conditions of unity and stability.

A Country With No Elevator
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -


7. (C) In equally inspiring but depressing tones, President
Sambi spoke at length of the Comoros' underdevelopment.
"There is not one elevator in my country," he said, "not one
building big enough to need one." He relayed a litany of
challenges to his political agenda: an empty treasury when
he took office in May, 2006; a budget of merely USD 70,000
for his entire External Affairs Ministry, which is charged
with the responsibility of engaging donors; poor
infrastructure; weak investment climate; and chronic
instability. "We live in the sea, and yet we import salt,"
Sambi summed up the Comoran economy.


8. (C) While remittances from abroad prevented a
humanitarian crisis, President Sambi said this was not
sustainable - Comorans born abroad will steadily send less
and less of their income home than their parents. Addressing
the IMF's decision to delay talks on a new program, and
needed financing, President Sambi said Anjouan's Bacar was
thus being allowed to hold the entire country hostage. CDA
Sibley noted the U.S. programs in education and democracy
would carry on in Grande Comore and Moheli, only extending to
Anjouan when possible.

The Mayotte Question
- - - - - - - - - - -


9. (C) Sambi asserted that directly or indirectly, all of
the Comoros' problems arose from Mayotte; the fourth Comoran
island which remained a French protectorate after
independence in 1975. In talks with French officials, Sambi
said he had asked for a fraction of the money used to
repatriate illegal Comoran immigrants be used to create jobs
in the Comoros. He lamented the dozens, if not hundreds, of
Comorans who lose their lives each year trying to flee
poverty in the Comoros for a better life in Mayotte (septel).


10. (C) COMMENT: It is difficult to urge patience on Sambi
when the de facto secession of Anjouan erodes his credibility
as a leader at home and undermines his ability to obtain
promised assistance from abroad. He is probably right that a
powerful external force could quickly and bloodlessly solve
his problem but none of his friends - including the U.S. -
has responded to his pleas. As he pointed out, unlike the
morasses of Sudan and Somalia, the Comoros could be an easy
"win" for the AU that could bolster its credibility. While
he was careful not to lay out his timetable, we suspect he
was not bluffing when he said he would take action on his own
to retake Anjouan. Sadly, we also agree that Bacar's forces
are far more likely to resist if faced with a Union-only
offensive, leading to preventable loss of life. END COMMENT.
SIBLEY