BACAR'S DEFIANCE LEAVES AU FEW OPTIONS IN THE COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000779

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
NSC FOR DIRECTOR PITTMAN
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E CKOLLMAR
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CN
SUBJECT: BACAR'S DEFIANCE LEAVES AU FEW OPTIONS IN THE COMOROS

REF: ANTANANARIVO 685 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) Little has changed in the Union of the Comoros in recent
days (reftels). African Union (AU) Envoy Francisco Madeira again
threatened Anjouan island renegade, Mohamed Bacar, and again offered
an ultimatum. In a press statement July 28, Madeira said, "Bacar's
boat is sinking and anyone left aboard should jump off or else risk
going down with him." Madeira emphasized that the refusal to allow
free elections and to accept AU observers, as well as ongoing
intransigence with regard to the Union Government, has isolated
Bacar's position.


2. (U) Commenting on Bacar's recent demands for talks, Madeira
insisted Anjouan's self-imposed leader has no constitutional right
to sit with the democratically-elected Union President Ahmed Sambi,
nor the elected island presidents of Grande Comore and Moheli. The
AU Envoy highlighted the fact that Bacar professes to accept the
Union Constitution, but in reality only respects the law when it
suits his interests.


3. (U) Bacar's response was predictable, identifying the AU, Union
Government, international community, and anyone else as responsible
for the current crisis. The renegade leader of Anjouan has again
invited Union President Sambi and the other island presidents to
meet for negotiations. Bacar's spokesperson insists, sometimes,
that the June 10 election was legitimate and binding (Note: Bacar
rigged the vote, winning 90 percent with 10 percent participation.
End Note). Other times, Bacar's people say an Anjouan island
election can be held, but federalist institutions and arrangements
must be resolved first.


4. (U) Following Madeira's scathing report, the AU Peace and
Security Council (PSC) convened July 31 to issue a communique (text
follows) extending the mandate of the AU Electoral and Security
Mission to the Comoros for one month through August 31. The PSC
pledged to meet as soon as possible to review the situation on
Anjouan, based on a report to be submitted by the chairperson of the
AU Commission after consultation with the countries in the region.
The Union Government has not yet responded publicly.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: It took several failed negotiations for the AU
envoy to accept what the Union Government has been telling him for
months: Bacar is not part of the solution; he is the problem. The
Comoros remain in perpetual "wait mode" while the AU again conducts
internal consultations. With negotiations exhausted, the AU has few
options at its disposal to maintain credibility on this issue. END
COMMENT.


6. (U) START TEXT OF COMMUNIQUE:

The Peace and Security Council of the African Union, at its 84th
meeting held on 31 July 2007, adopted the following decision on the
renewal of the mandate of the African Union Electoral and Security
Assistance Mission to the Comoros:

Council,


1. Recalls decision PSC/MIN/Comm.1 (LXXVII) adopted at its 77th
meeting held in Durban, South Africa, on 9 May 2007, authorizing the
deployment of the African Union Electoral and Security Assistance
Mission to The Comoros (MAES),for an initial period running from 13
May to 31 July 2007;


2. Decides to extend the mandate of MAES for an additional period of
one month, until 31 August 2007;


3. Further decides to meet as soon as possible to review the
situation in the Comorian Island of Anjouan, on the basis of a
report to be submitted by the Chairperson of the Commission after
consultation with the countries of the region.

END TEXT

SIBLEY