PRESIDENT TO DISSOLVE MADAGASCAR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000721

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TO DISSOLVE MADAGASCAR NATIONAL ASSEMBLY

REF: ANTANANARIVO 715


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Marc Ravalomanana announced July 20 his
intention to dissolve the National Assembly and call legislative
elections. His justifications include "realignment" with his
Madagascar Action Plan (MAP) and the recent Constitutional
Referendum; the Deputies' terms are also set to expire. While
apparently constitutionally legal, critics suspect a power grab,
particularly if the President uses his authority to legislate during
the period between dissolution and new elections. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) President Marc Ravalomanana announced in a public meeting
July 20 he plans to dissolve the National Assembly in the "near
future" in order to align the lower house of the legislature with
the amended Constitution and the MAP. Taken by surprise, political
observers do not know what to make of the President's cryptic
justification, but political parties have started meeting to
prepare. Madagascar has a bicameral Parliament; the National
Assembly has 160 seats and is popularly elected, whereas the Senate
contains a mixture of elected and appointed seats. For the
dissolution to be official it must be formally published by the
Council of Ministers.


3. (U) The President's decision appears to be constitutional.
Article 98 of the Constitution stipulates the President is allowed
to dissolve the National Assembly for "determining causes," which he
does not have to specify. The timing is also appropriate given the
Deputies' five year mandate is about to expire; the last elections
were held in the fall of 2002. Perhaps because their term was
almost up anyway, many opposition figures have welcomed the
announcement of new elections.


4. (SBU) Opposition parties are also claiming Ravalomanana is
looking to solidify his power in the midst of internal divisions
within his TIM (Tiako I'Madagasikara) political party. TIM members
comprise the majority at the National Assembly, but in recent months
a dissident wing of TIM has been meeting independently to discuss
ways to reenergize the party. Feeling increasingly marginalized by
Ravalomanana, they seek ways to hold the executive branch more
accountable to the party line. The National Assembly largely serves
to "rubber stamp" the Government of Madagascar's (GOM) initiatives,
but with the budget session set to begin in September some critics
wonder whether the President is calling new elections in order to
stack the Assembly with loyalists to support his initiatives.
Further, some critics wonder whether the move is a "power grab,"
given the President has the authority to legislate in the absence of
a sitting National Assembly. Article 100 of the Constitution
stipulates the President can legislate in case of emergency or
catastrophe; Article 156 stipulates that in times of transition, the
President can legislate by ordinance on issues regarding the
establishment and functioning of decentralized institutions. The
potential impact on issues such as regional budgets is still
unclear.


5. (U) The issue of electoral code reform has been gathering steam
in political circles since the international community started
advocating for a single ballot and an independent electoral
commission. Post notes the dissolution of the National Assembly
essentially puts off the debate until after legislative elections,
perhaps until 2008.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: Although dissolution of the National Assembly is
constitutional, it only adds to the perception the President is
making unilateral decisions for political gain (reftel). For
example the new constitution -- unlike the previous one - does not
require the legislature to ratify Presidential legislation
promulgated during periods of transition or emergency. With a
combative Parliament this might be an important change, but it is
difficult to see that it would matter much at present given the
docility of the President's first term legislature. Only two days
earlier, the Prime Minister had called for a "political hiatus"
during the Indian Ocean Games set to start August 9, which is also
fueling speculation over the lack of the communication within the
GOM. The dissolution of the National Assembly will essentially
freeze all legislation until the new Assembly is in place, as the
Senate can only serve as a consultative body for the GOM in the
meantime. Once the dissolution has been formally published, Post
will closely monitor the impact during the transition period. END
COMMENT.

SIBLEY