COMOROS ELECTIONS: TWO OUT OF THREE SUCCEED

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/26/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PHUM AU CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS ELECTIONS: TWO OUT OF THREE SUCCEED

REF: ANTAN 615

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4 B, D


1. (C) SUMMARY: Island elections in Grande Comore and
Moheli successfully completed their second rounds June 24.
Embassy observers found the election in Grande Comore to be
transparent and well-organized. Tensions are high between
the Union government, African Union (AU),and other
international representatives in Moroni as Mohamed Bacar
remains in control of the third Comoran island of Anjouan.
The Union Government is frustrated with AU tactics, insisting
the time for negotiation has passed. END SUMMARY.

Island Elections Results In Grande Comore And Moheli
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2. (U) Late June 26, the Comoran Constitutional Court in
Moroni announced final official results for the second round
of island president elections in Grand Comore and Moheli. In
Grande Comore, Mohamed Abdouloihabi (known as "Albino"),the
candidate supported by Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi,
defeated Larifou by earning 57 percent of the vote. In
Moheli, Mohamed Ali Said defeated incumbent Faizul with 57
percent of the vote there. Embassy observers noted a few
irregularities but in general found election officials to be
professional and efficient. Of note, prior to the June 24
polls, the National Electoral Commission convened
international observers for a "lessons learned" session to
solicit feedback from the first round and to announce several
adjustments made to correct imperfections on June 10.

La Francophonie And AU Squabble
--------------


3. (C) Tensions were running high at a meeting of the
international community June 23, where a squabble broke out
between AU envoy Madeira and the Head of the Organization for
the Francophonie (OIF) delegation. Noting Madeira went
against the GOC,s wishes by meeting with members of Bacar,s
government during a June 22 visit to Anjouan in which he was
only to hand them the June 19 Cape Town communique (reftel),
an official of the Ministry of Exterior Relations questioned
&what game is the AU playing?8 The OIF representative
accused the AU of working on its own and failing to consult
other members of the international community. Madeira
snapped back, &We do not know if the OIF is even our friend.
Are you with us or against us?8 The argument finished with
the OIF representative telling Madeira, &This is not
finished, so be careful.8 The GOC,s discomfort with the
lack of coordination and communication on the AU,s part has
clearly worked its way through the international community.

Bacar Remains In Control Of Anjouan
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4. (C) As of midday June 27, renegade former Anjouan island
president Bacar remains in control of the island of Anjouan
with his armed militia. Despite warnings from Union
President Sambi, the AU continues to insist on futile
"negotiating" sessions with Bacar. An AU ministerial
delegation lead by South African Minister of Foreign Affairs
Zuma traveled to Anjouan June 24 with the express purpose of
determining whether Bacar would accept the conditions set
forth in the June 19 Cape Town communique. However,
following discussions where Bacar set forth a number of
procedural complaints including the illegal composition of
the Constitutional Court, the AU delegation returned to
Moroni recommending the GOC, Bacar,s government, and the AU
sit down for tripartite negotiations to deal with these
institutional issues before discussing elections.


5. (C) Upset the AU seemed to be retreating, President
Sambi publicly declared June 26, &No more negotiations.
Elections first on Anjouan.8 A statement subsequently
released by the GOC claimed the AU delegation contradicted
the decisive spirit of the June 19 Cape Town announcement by
considering further negotiations with Bacar.

Anjouanese People Demonstrate Against Bacar
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6. (SBU) Timed to greet AU Envoy Madeira, several hundred
Anjouanese people tried to demonstrate against Bacar at the
airport outside Mutsumudu, Anjouan. Bacar's forces dispersed
the gathering crowd and arrested at least one journalist.
Later in the day, several hundred Anjounese marched in the
streets of Mutsumudu chanting against Bacar and holding signs
demanding freedom and democracy.

Embassy Observer Teams
--------------


7. (SBU) The Embassy sent three observers ) one officer
and two local staff ) to the second round of island
elections on the two islands where Union authority holds
sway. Although they observed several small discrepancies,
the overall impression was elections that were free, fair,
transparent, and well organized. Other international
observers shared the same impression. The chief complaint
from elections officials centered around the low voter
turnout.


8. (SBU) The elections proceeded remarkably smoothly. As
with the first round of the elections, South Africa and the
African Union provided logistical support and security.
After the first round, Comoran election officials and the
candidates had identified several procedural problems, and
initiated changes for the second round, which were
implemented quickly, although several were implemented
sporadically. Some polling stations complained that they did
not have sufficient ballots for each registered voter. The
discrepancy was, with one exception, less than 25 ballots in
each case, and in no case presented a problem due to the low
turnout.


9. (SBU) Foumbouni, Grande Comore, home of losing candidate
Larifou, was the only area to give U.S. observers pause.
There, observers at one of the town,s five voting stations
saw a number of procedural irregularities, the most serious
being regular requests by one of Abduloihabi,s observers
that he be allowed to assist each aged or disabled voter who
entered, and then proceeded to mark the ballot for the voter,
without appearing to obtain the voter,s opinion. While
concerned, both U.S. and other international observers did
not feel the discrepancies impugned the overall process.


10. (SBU) After the polls closed, vote counting proceeded
quickly. On Grande Comore the electoral commission tabulated
all the votes by 5:00 a.m. The materials from Moheli arrived
by helicopter at 10:30 Monday morning, and the results were
ready two hours later, less than 24 hours after the polls had
closed. The Constitutional Court completed its count and
certification of the results at 4:00 p.m. Tuesday, over a
full day earlier than expected.


11. (C) COMMENT: The Comoran Government is starting to
publicly express its frustration with the AU's refusal to
take Anjouan by force and Madeira's ongoing circus of talks
which do little but lend legitimacy to Bacar. Besides his
inability to govern the people of Anjouan under Bacar's
control, Sambi is under increasing pressure of public unrest
in Grand Comore and Moheli for his perceived inability to
maintain the Union. Our civic leader contacts in Anjouan
share Sambi's sentiment regarding Bacar, and ask why the AU
continues to negotiate with a "rebel who only defies the
international community." Post shares the GOC's view that
Minister Zuma's mission to Comoros did not produce
substantial results and that it is counterproductive to
suggest talks with Bacar at this stage, except for the
modality whereby he might relinquish power to allow free and
fair elections in Anjouan. Bacar appears to have calculated
that the forceful words in the Cape Town declaration will not
be followed by forceful action. We fear that he may have
calculated correctly. END COMMENT.

SIBLEY