Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANTANANARIVO583
2007-06-13 12:41:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

AU CHALLENGES ANJOUAN'S BACAR IN COMOROS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CASC CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHAN #0583 1641241
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 131241Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4959
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RHMFIUU/CJTF HOA IMMEDIATE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE
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RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000583 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN
DEPT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - RBRANSON
JOAHNNESBURG FOR RCO M VEASY
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CASC CN
SUBJECT: AU CHALLENGES ANJOUAN'S BACAR IN COMOROS

REF: ANTANANARIVO 573 AND PREVIOUS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 000583

SIPDIS

SIPDIS
SENSITIVE

ADDIS ABABA FOR USAU - AMB COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR
DEPT FOR DS/DSS/ITA - DROTHSTEIN
DEPT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - RBRANSON
JOAHNNESBURG FOR RCO M VEASY
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR ASEC CASC CN
SUBJECT: AU CHALLENGES ANJOUAN'S BACAR IN COMOROS

REF: ANTANANARIVO 573 AND PREVIOUS


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The African Union insists deposed island
president Mohamed Bacar must allow island elections on Anjouan June
17; however, it cannot so far enforce compliance. The renegade
Bacar is reportedly fortifying his position on the island against
possible attack. (Note: No AmCits are on Anjouan at present.)
Results for the islands of Grand Comore and Moheli indicate a June
24 second round will be needed in both elections; promising
challengers lead in both races. Late June 13 the President of the
Union of the Comoros, Ahmed Abdallah Sambi, wrote to President Bush
seeking U.S. military assistance to overcome the impasse (Septel).
END SUMMARY.

Bacar Does Not Budge
--------------


2. (SBU) Deposed island governor Mohamed Bacar remains in control of
Anjouan and plans to "inaugurate" himself June 14 following his sham
election June 10 (reftel). African Union (AU) Envoy Francisco
Madeira delivered an ultimatum to Bacar June 12 that the June 17
election be allowed "or else there would be consequences, including
the use of force." Union Government officials insist the AU must
deploy immediately if an election is to be held June 17, and that
Bacar must allow inter-island travel. The Union Government further
warned Bacar that if he prevents the June 17 vote, he will be barred
from being a candidate. Bacar reportedly remains defiant.

Fortress Anjouan
--------------


3. (SBU) A civic leader in Anjouan reports that Bacar has deployed
his militia all over the island to guard against a possible attack.
Bacar's well-armed personal army of about 200 has reportedly placed
mortars high on hills to fight off an assault on the island and
distributed weapons to civilians. Rumors continue to circulate that
Bacar has obtained weapons from allies in the nearby French
territory of Mayotte.

Grand Comore and Moheli Results
--------------


4. (U) Late June 12, the Union Government convoked the press and
observers to announce results from the June 10 elections in Grand
Comore and Moheli. In a minor victory for Union President Sambi,
the Grande Comore incumbent, el-Bak, failed to make it to the next
round. Instead the top two vote-getters, pro-Sambi Abduloihabi
(known as "The Albino") with 16 percent and Larifou with 14 percent,
will face off on June 24. In Moheli, challenger Mohamed Ali Said
and incumbent Mohamed Fazul will go to the second round.

COMMENT: Brinksmanship
--------------


5. (SBU) Bacar, in true warlord fashion, has been gradually shedding
the fig leaves of legitimacy in his bid to cling to power. The AU
sent the right message, but Bacar may well be prepared to call its
bluff. If the elections are not held on June 17 on Anjouan, the
Union of the Comoros will be facing a de facto secession. Post
appreciates the Department's fast turn-around on the June 12 press
statement. PolOff was able to deliver the remarks in person to
Comoran media in Moroni June 13. Union Government officials thanked
us for the encouraging words of support for Comoran unity and
democracy. Septel details President Sambi's letter to President
Bush in which he concludes that only military action can now rescue
the Union, and seeking U.S. assistance in this effort. END
COMMENT.

SIBLEY