COMOROS ISLAND IN DE FACTO SECESSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000438

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR USAU AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E - CKOLLMAR
NAIROBI USAID/LPC - AKARAS
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/04/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS ASEC CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS ISLAND IN DE FACTO SECESSION

REF: A. ANTANANARIVO 432


B. ANTANANARIVO 425

C. ANTANANARIVO 399

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: After seizing control of the Union radio
station and Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi's home on
Anjouan May 3, "President" Mohamed Bacar's forces seem to be
even more in control of the island. The first reported
deaths of Union soldiers have sparked conflict between
villages; some residents of Anjouan are calling this "the
beginning of the civil war." President Sambi has said
elections can not be held in Anjouan under the present
situation. Post has been unable to confirm whether
representatives of the international community were able to
travel to Anjouan today to start any sort of mediation but
suspects Bacar is not yet ready to accept any kind of
negotiations. Embassy Antananarivo received a diplomatic
note from the Union Government May 4 requesting military
assistance. END SUMMARY.

FIRST REPORTED DEATHS LEADSTO CONFLICT BETWEEN VILLAGES
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2. (U) Radio stations in Moroni are reporting Bacar's forces
attacked and took control of the Union radio station and
President Sambi's home on Anjouan May 3. Seeking shelter in
an alternate home since May 2, Sambi's wife and children were
not in the President's home at the time of the attack and are
thought to be safe.


3. (SBU) Post has received conflicting reports about the
first reported deaths in Anjouan. On the evening of May 3,
two Union army boats arrived from Moroni. It is unclear
whether they were carrying Union troops from Moroni as
reinforcements, or whether they had arrived empty to pick up
Union soldiers on the run at a pre-planned "rally point."
Regardless, one of Bacar's militia fired a rocket-propelled
grenade (RPG) and killed two Union soldiers. Regional
Commander of the Union Forces Combo and approximately 14
Union soldiers were reportedly captured and taken to prison.
Some contacts claim that villagers from the town of one of
the dead soldiers, who was originally from Anjouan, attacked
the village of the militiaman who fired the RPG and destroyed
his home. The irate villagers expressed the desire to attack
Bacar's forces and his village. Post has also heard reports
that other villages hostile to the Bacar government have
burned the home of one of Bacar's supporters, are putting up
barricades to keep Bacar's forces out, and may be planning to
revolt. Residents of Anjouan are calling this fighting
between villages "the beginning of the civil war."

PUBLIC RESPONSES FROM THE UNION GOVERNMENT
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4. (U) Union Minister of Exterior Relations Jaffar said on
the radio May 4 that President Sambi explained the Comoros
cannot hold elections in Anjouan under the present situation.
Explaining that Sambi has abided by the Union's Constitution
by appointing an interim president on Anjouan, he reassured
the public the international community is objecting to
Bacar's actions and will seek a solution working closely with
the Union Government.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES ABOUND
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5. (C) Post has been unable to confirm whether
representatives of the international community were able to
travel to Anjouan today to start any sort of mediation, but
Post suspects Bacar is not yet ready to accept any kind of
negotiations. Contacts in Moroni report the population
suspects the French are behind this latest conflict -- a
common but not entirely believable theme running through many
of our regular discussions with Comoran contacts. The
rumor goes that the French, angry that a U.S. oil company has
signed a deal for exploratory rights around the Comoros and
(wrongly) assuming this was the objective of the April 19
U.S.-Comoros bilateral talks (Ref C),are assisting Bacar to

ANTANANARI 00000438 002 OF 002


give a leg up to their own oil companies.

COMORAN GOVERNMENT FORMALLY SEEKS MILITARY ASSISTANCE
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6. (SBU) Early in the afternoon of May 4, the Comoran
Foreign Ministry sent a diplomatic note to the U.S. Embassy
in Antananarivo. The note begins by describing recent
events, including the attack by Bacar's militia on the
Union Presidential Palace in Hombo on May 2, the killing of
the two Union soldiers by an RPG as they attempted to flee by
boat, and the capture and imprisonment of the remaining 14
soldiers of the Union army. It states that all Union
authorities and Union President Sambi's own family are in
grave danger on Anjouan, and it raises the possibility of the
entire country slipping into civil war. For this reason, the
Union Government seeks human and logistical resources from
the U.S. Government to assist in preventing
civil war, such as: a rapid response force, military
transportation by sea or air, a naval vessel for surveillance
off the Anjouan coast, or helicopters. The note closes by
thanking the U.S. Government for giving serious consideration
to this request.


7. (C) COMMENT: The Union Government at the moment lacks the
wherewithal to stop Bacar from retaining power on Anjouan in
what has become a de facto secession from the Union. We
suspect Union President Sambi is seeking assistance -
military and diplomatic - from a variety of sources as well
as from us. If he receives it, he will certainly be
obligated to whatever country provides it. He probably
realizes the U.S. is unlikely to provide military assistance,
despite his request. Nonetheless, a U.S. public statement,
condemning the violence and supporting a return to
established legal and democratic norms, would no doubt be
greatly appreciated. END COMMENT.

McGEE