UNION AND ANJOUAN FORCES FINALLY CLASH IN COMOROS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000425

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR USAU AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO
DEPT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - RBRANSON
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E CKOLLMAR
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR RCO MVEASY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS ASEC CASC CN
SUBJECT: UNION AND ANJOUAN FORCES FINALLY CLASH IN COMOROS

REF: A. SIBLEY-OPS CTR CONF CALL MAY 2 1900 LOCAL TIME


B. MCGEE-COURVILLE TELCOM 1800 LOCAL TIME

C. TRENKLE-NEUBERT EMAIL 4/25/2007

D. ANTANANARIVO 420

E. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1441

F. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1435

G. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1410

H. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1307

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D.


1. (C) SUMMARY: The political tension in the Union of the
Comoros that has been simmering in recent months between the
rival jurisdictions of the Union Government of President
Ahmed Abdallah Sambi and the Anjouan Island government headed
by "President" Mohamed Bacar has finally broken into
violence. Following Bacar's refusal to step down before
running for Island reelection (Ref C),Bacar's forces are
reported to have attacked - and routed -- the small Union
army contingent on Anjouan. Post does not have reliable
reports of casualties, but has heard the Union President's
offices on Anjouan had come under mortar fire. Post has
spoken with the one American citizen visiting Anjouan, who is
safe and seeking shelter at the Consul of Madagascar's
residence. The international community, including the
African Union (AU) representative to the Comoros, was meeting
in Moroni, the capital on Grand Comore, to discuss possible
solutions. The Director of the National Police asked our
Defense Attache's Office for military and/or diplomatic
support, but we have not been in direct contact with
President Sambi. Radio Anjouan has declared a state of
emergency and a week-long dusk-to-dawn curfew. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The political tension that has been simmering in
recent months between the Union Government and President
Mohamed Bacar of Anjouan has finally come to a head. The
Constitutional Court's decision April 27 that Island
President Bacar should have resigned from office April 14 in
order to run for reelection on June 10, followed by Union
President Sambi's designation of Houmadi Kaambi (President of
Anjouan's Assembly) as Interim President of Anjouan (REF C),
led Bacar and his security forces on Anjouan to finally
respond. The other two islands, Grande Comore and Moheli,
are reported to be completely calm and peaceful. On Anjouan,
however, Bacar's radio station has reportedly called a
week-long state of emergency with dusk-to-dawn curfews.


3. (C) Interim President of Anjouan Kaambi publicly
announced May 1 he had formed an interim government and would
not work with Bacar's authorities. That evening, Bacar
announced he would not step down from office. He stated
that, according to the Constitution of Anjouan, he is the
"only true candidate" as he has 40 signatures supporting his
candidacy. By contrast, the Constitution of the Union does
not make any reference to a candidate's need for signatures.
Post also heard reports Bacar announced he will not be
holding island elections.


4. (SBU) On the morning of May 2, Bacar's security forces -
armed with heavy weapons -- closed Anjouan's airport and
seaport. Post has received conflicting reports over exactly
how the conflict started, but the shooting began at
approximately 1530 between Bacar's forces (numbering
approximately 1,200) and the Union army contingent already
stationed in Anjouan (numbering approximately 60) around
civilian buildings in Hombo, a town neighboring the island
capital of Mutsamudu. Union soldiers had reportedly
arrested Bacar's Ministers of Finance, Economy, and Social
Affairs to remove them from power. Bacar's forces responded
by attacking the Union Palace (the headquarters of the Union
Forces) and Union Government radio stations, firing mortars
at the Union Palace and taking back the arrested Ministers.
An American citizen reported hearing single shots, long
repeated bursts of machine gun fire, and at least seven to
eight mortar rounds - reports confirmed by local Anjouan
residents and the Chief of Police on Grand Comores. Bacar's
forces reportedly entered the Hombo hospital to better
position themselves to fight the Union forces across the
street.

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5. (U) Post has heard reports of four to five people injured
in the shooting and no deaths to date, but most observers
have suggested the number will rise once there is time to
take stock. Residents are reported to be fleeing the town
for safety. Schools, stores and markets are closed
throughout the island. Local residents note Anjouan has not
seen this level of conflict since the last "secession crisis"
in 1997.


6. (C) The Secretary General of Vice President Idi's office
in Moroni, contradicting earlier reports, said that no Union
troops have been dispatched to reinforce their outnumbered
comrades in Anjouan, at least for now. If Union troops are
dispatched from Moroni, they will face conflict upon entry,
as Bacar's forces have closed the airport and are restricting
incoming boats at the port. The American citizen reported
seeing Bacar's forces at the seaport carrying
rocket-propelled grenade launchers (RPGs) on their shoulders.


7. (C) Post has spoken with the one American citizen on
Anjouan. Unable to leave the island by plane or boat earlier
today, he is currently staying at the Consul of Madagascar's
residence in Anjouan and feels he is in no imminent danger.
He stated, "I can stay here for a week if need be." We
advised him to stay out of sight until the security situation
improves.


8. (C) The international community -- including the AU
representative, the French, Libyan, and South African
Ambassadors, the EU liaison, the IMF, the WHO, and the local
hire U.S. Embassy liaison to Comoros -- have held several
meetings throughout the afternoon with the Comoran Vice
Presidents and Chief of the Army. All parties agreed Bacar's
actions are "unacceptable" and amount to an attack on the
Union's sovereignty. The international community intends to
meet again on May 3 to review the situation on the ground and
reevaluate possible actions to defuse the conflict. They
report that the African Union "Peace and Security" division
was also meeting in Addis Ababa to review possible next
steps. The French are reportedly advocating a "hands off"
approach for the time being.


9. (C) COMMENT: Ten years ago, when Anjouan attempted to
secede from the Union, the African Union - with particular
leadership from South Africa and Mauritius - managed to
broker the truce that restored the Union. At the time
Anjouan had a plausible complaint that it was being
dominated, politically and economically, by its larger
neighbor Grande Comore. Part of the compromise was a loosely
federated state that preserved substantial independence for
the island governments. The other part was the concept of a
Union Presidency that would rotate among Comoros' three
islands. Today, Union President Sambi comes from Anjouan,
making the complaint of "domination" far less persuasive.
Instead, Island President Bacar comes across as a warlord,
fearful that he would lose his fiefdom in a free and fair
election. Bacar has been in conflict with the Union in the
past, particularly - on an issue of U.S. policy concern - in
his continuing issuance of "illegal" licenses to offshore
banking entities. If he is allowed to retain control of
Anjouan on this occasion a de facto secession will have
occurred. Post will seek to communicate directly with
President Sambi on May 3 and report his views of the
situation. In the meantime, our support of any African Union
effort to prevent this outcome would be helpful to resolve
the crisis. END COMMENT.

McGEE