Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANTANANARIVO419
2007-04-30 20:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

PRE-ELECTION SHOWDOWN IN THE COMOROS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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DE RUEHAN #0419/01 1202017
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 302017Z APR 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4712
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000419 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR USAU AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS CN
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SHOWDOWN IN THE COMOROS

REF: A. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1410


B. TRENKLE-NEUBERT EMAIL 4/25/2007

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B, D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000419

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS FOR USAU AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PBTS MASS CN
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION SHOWDOWN IN THE COMOROS

REF: A. 06 ANTANANARIVO 1410


B. TRENKLE-NEUBERT EMAIL 4/25/2007

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4 B, D


1. (C) SUMMARY: Political tensions are running high in the
Union of the Comoros as the Union and Anjouan Island
Governments jockey over whether President of Anjouan Mohamed
Bacar (known for his secessionist tendencies and prickly
relationship with the Union Government) must step down
preceding the June 10 Island Presidential elections, in which
he plans to run for reelection. The Constitutional Court
(CC) ruled April 27 that Bacar's mandate ended April 14, and
Union President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi subsequently designated
an interim President of Anjouan for the less than 60 days
preceding the election. In a private phone call with
Ambassador McGee April 28, Sambi reiterated his request
(REFTEL) for U.S.-funded military training for Union security
forces, preferably to begin preceding the election, and
expressed his desire to see the African Union (AU) step
forward to guarantee free, fair, transparent, and peaceful
elections. Anjouan is calm for now, but Union officials and
the residents of Anjouan are nervously awaiting Bacar's
response. END SUMMARY.

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT RULES BACAR MUST STEP DOWN
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


2. (U) April 14 marked the five-year point of Bacar's term as
President of Anjouan -- the moment at which many of Bacar's
opponents in both Grand Comores and Anjouan argued he should
resign from office by law if he wishes to run for
reelection. In the "touch and go" two-week period that
followed -- while Bacar publicly announced he would continue
to rule the island, imposed a curfew, and strictly controlled
incoming and outgoing flights from the Anjouan airport --
Union Government officials debated how to address the issue.
The CC ruled April 27 that Bacar's mandate ended on April 14

and an interim president must be named on Anjouan for the
period before the elections. The CC ruling suggested the
Union President, the "arbiter and moderator of the regular
functioning of institutions" throughout the country, is
responsible for designating an interim president on Anjouan.
The following day, Union President Sambi publicly designated
Houmadi Kaambi, current President of Anjouan's Assembly, as
the interim Island President and charged him with forming a
representative interim government within five days of taking
office.

SAMBI REQUESTS U.S. ASSISTANCE
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -


3. (C) In a private phone call with Ambassador McGee April
28, Union President Sambi reiterated his request for
U.S.-funded military training for Union security forces in
the form of three to five U.S. military trainers for a period
of one to two months in order to raise the professionalism of
the Union forces. Sambi also wants to see the AU step
forward to guarantee free, fair, transparent, and peaceful
elections -- in particular by dissuading Bacar from creating
any problems. (NOTE: An AU assessment team recently traveled
to the three islands to determine the level of security
needed for elections. Post understands AU assistance,
provided almost entirely by South Africa, will likely consist
of a small military/police training team, logistical support
including helicopters, and an electoral observation team (REF
B). END NOTE.)

ANJOUAN CALM...FOR NOW
- - - - - - - - - - - -


4. (U) Residents of Anjouan are nervously awaiting Bacar's
response. As of 1700 April 30, Bacar's only public moves
consisted of closing the airport for several hours in the
morning in the hopes of preventing Union officials and
security forces from coming to Anjouan. The airport has
since reopened.

COMMENT
- - - -


5. (C) This is the latest example of the federalist problem
of "division of competences" between the Union and Island
Governments. The historical tension between Union President
Sambi and Island President Bacar is only exacerbated by the

ANTANANARI 00000419 002 OF 002


vaguely worded and sometimes conflicting French-based
legislation agreed to in 2001 that leaves much open to
interpretation. However, the Comoran Constitution gives the
CC the right to judge the constitutionality of both Union and
Island laws and resolve conflicts therein. Empowered by the
CC's ruling, President Sambi is determined not to let Bacar
run for reelection unless he agrees to step down. That said,
Bacar has power on Anjouan, including armed forces, and may
decide to call Sambi's bluff. In that case the Comoros will
edge closer to a return to the crisis of secession that the
2001 legislation was intended to resolve.


6. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: To the extent that a strong AU
presence is likely to help defuse any Union-Island showdown,
we recommend supporting such an effort at preventive
diplomacy. END COMMENT.

McGEE