RESULTS NEARLY COMPLETE, REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 000352

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/12/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: RESULTS NEARLY COMPLETE, REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 325 B) ANTANANARIVO 301 C)

ANTANANARIVO 252 D) ANTANANARIVO 232

Classified By: AMBASSADOR JAMES D. MCGEE FOR REASONS 1.4B AND D


1. (U) SUMMARY: Waiting on results from only 27 of the
country's 17,000-plus polling stations, Madagascar's
constitutional referendum passed with a 75.37 percent
approval rate and a 43.7 percent voter turnout. The usual
criticism from the opposition post-referendum will likely
fall on deaf ears. The Council of Ministers chaired by the
President is now starting to shift its attention to upcoming
elections for senators, mayors and "fokontany" (neighborhood)
leaders. END SUMMARY.

RESULTS SHOW REFERENDUM VICTORIOUS
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2. (U) On the evening of April 9, the Ministry of Interior
published results collected from 99.85 percent of the
country's 17,586 polling stations. Of 3,157,946 votes cast
representing 43.7 percent of eligible voters, 75.37 percent
approved the proposed constitutional changes. It came as no
surprise the referendum was rejected in the cities of Tulear
(support base of opponent Jean Lahiniriko),Tamatave
(traditional stronghold of former President Ratsiraka),
Fianarantsoa, Diego Suarez, and Majunga. Media reports noted
subtle shifts from the December 3 presidential election
results. While the President lost 400,000 votes in his
traditional support base of Antananarivo province, he gained
200,000 votes in Tulear province. Some speculate these
changes reflect the beginning of a shift in political bases,
but they are more likely a mixed result of low voter turnout
despite pressure on Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials
to encourage voters to approve the referendum.


3. (U) Although the results fall short of the 80 percent
approval rate President Ravalomanana was aiming for,
heexpressed satisfaction over the initial referendum results
at a session of the Council of Ministers April 6. The
President believes voters in the five provincial capitals who
rejected the referendum are scared of losing their jobs,
while those in rural areas who approved the referendum
expressed the desire to be closer to the administration.
Turning its attention toward the future, the meeting focused
on the upcoming elections for senators, mayors and fokontany
leaders (dates yet to be determined).

OPPOSITION REACTION
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4. (U) As expected, the committee of voters against the
referendum is publicly contesting the Ministry of Interior's
results, questioning how isolated communes inaccessible by
road managed to turn in their votes in less than three days.
The head of the opposition Committee for National
Reconciliation called it a "pre-fabricated victory" and
expects Ravalomanana and his team will continue their drive
toward "greater personal power and weaker democracy." Former
presidential candidate opponents Roland Ratsiraka, Herizo
Razafimahaleo and Jean Lahiniriko announced they intend to
consolidate their forces to seize the majority of seats in
the upcoming Senate and communal elections.

COMMENT
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5. (C) Ambassador McGee recently learned German, French and
EU officials jointly demarched President Ravalomanana in a
closed-door meeting in the days before the referendum to
express concern over the process of the vote, namely the
hasty timing. With the GOM already looking to the future,
Post expects opposition criticism post-referendum will
equally fall on deaf ears. Regardless of low voter turnout
(and some have suggested the turnout may have been even lower
that that officially reported),the President seems confident
of his mandate from the people and ready to forge ahead with
his government's plans for Madagascar's development. If
opposition parties are able to put aside their rivalries and
cooperate to win back seats in upcoming elections they might
have some success, but it would be a first for Madagascar's
typically unsophisticated political parties. END COMMENT.

McGEE