MIXED REACTIONS TO PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000301

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TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: MIXED REACTIONS TO PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 252 B) ANTANANARIVO 232

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1. (U) SUMMARY: With only eight days to go, Madagascar's upcoming
constitutional referendum has failed to garner the same amount of
enthusiasm seen in the recent presidential election. The average
citizen has little understanding of the proposed amendments and
public reactions have been mixed with a poorly-organized showing by
opposition groups. Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials
continue to insist the "benign" changes are intended to help the
President run the country more efficiently. With President
Ravalomanana aiming for an 80 percent approval rate, the GOM's
aggressive efforts to encourage voter participation have raised some
controversy. Still, the referendum is widely expected to pass. END
SUMMARY.

CAMPAIGN UNDERWAY
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2. (U) On March 20 the GOM kicked off a 15-day campaign for the
upcoming referendum with a lackluster event at one of the
President's MAGRO facilities in Antananarivo. The referendum has
failed to garner the same amount of enthusiasm - whether for or
against - seen in the recent presidential election. In a positive
departure from the past, the GOM's public education efforts started
immediately after the proposed changes were published (REF A) with
programs on national and private radio and television. Local NGOs
have also been conducting civic education programs on the referendum
at the regional and local levels. Groups officially registered as
"for" or "against" the referendum are guaranteed 20 minutes of free
coverage on national public radio and television per day to
publicize their platforms.

THE GOM CLARIFIES ITS OBJECTIVES
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3. (SBU) In response to public criticism of the proposed amendments,
presidential political advisor Moxe Ramandimbilahatra privately gave
Econ/Pol Chief a rather academic clarification of the government's
intentions. Contrary to popular assumption, he explained the
changes are not directly linked to the recently launched Madagascar
Action Plan (MAP) for development; a government cannot change an
entire body of laws just to support a particular president's
program. Rather, the changes will make it possible for the
President to run the country more efficiently. However, he
unintentionally made a more compelling argument that the changes are
harmless, rather than necessary.


4. (SBU) In response to widespread criticism that the proposed
amendments will increase the President's power, Ramandimbilahatra
flatly disagreed. For example, he explained that giving the
President the power to appoint Supreme Court magistrates is less
about decreasing the independence of the judiciary and more about
breaking the "justice mafia" controlled by several influential
families; he guaranteed the President will continue to be checked by
the High Court of Justice and other bodies. Ramandimbilahatra also
said allowing the ratification of the Rome Statute is the
President's idea, as, "it's about time that we comply with trends in
international law."

MIXED BUT UNINSPIRING REACTIONS
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5. (U) Public reactions voiced in radio call-in programs and
newspapers have been mixed. While some support the changes as a
mark of progress, others question whether they will have any impact
on the MAP or their daily lives. The silent majority seems to be
indifferent due to lack of understanding over the implications of
the changes. Many people who voted for President Ravalomanana last
December 3 indicate they will "automatically" back up that vote with
a vote in favor of the referendum on April 4.


6. (U) The opposition's response has been weak and uncoordinated due
to competition among the groups and insufficient funds. The
traditional line-up of opposition groups established a "NO"
committee comprised of 11 parties campaigning against the
referendum, including Leader-Fanilo lead by former presidential
candidate Herizo Razafimahaleo, the AREMA faction supporting the
exiled Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, the newly-formed PSDUM party lead by
former presidential candidate Jean Lahiniriko, and the CRN and UNDD
parties lead by former President Albert Zafy. Former presidential
candidate Roland Ratsiraka and his TTS party are also independently
campaigning against the referendum. Their criticism centers around
the strengthening role of the President, lack of debate over the new

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amendments, and the abolition of the provinces as a "backslide" in
Madagascar's development. Other groups, such as the Confederation
of Workers' Unions, are also calling on people to protest an
amendment that only guarantees the right to strike as long as they
"do not prevent the continuation of public services or security
needs fundamental to the nation."


7. (U) The members comprising the traditionally outspoken FFKM, the
powerful council of Christian Churches which normally speaks with
one voice on major political issues, have had split reactions to the
referendum. Anglican churches have remained largely silent. With
approval from the Vatican's representative in Madagascar, Catholic
churches have criticized the hasty organization of the referendum,
while the church-affiliated association "Justice and Peace" has
voiced concern over the removal of separation of church and state
and the abolition of autonomous provinces. The Lutherans have
united with the Protestants of the sub-group FJKM in urging people
to participate in the vote, but not supporting "for" or "against."

PRESSURE FOR PARTICIPATION
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8. (SBU) In order to be adopted, the referendum must be approved by
more than 50 percent of those who show up at the polls on April 4.
With President Ravalomanana hoping for an 80 percent approval rate,
the GOM's efforts to encourage voter participation have raised some
controversy. Despite a stipulation in the electoral code forbidding
civil servants from campaigning for an "option or candidate,"
Ravalomanana publicly called on civil servants to mobilize to help
the referendum pass. The Prime Minister softened this position days
later by explaining that while civil servants should not actively
campaign, it is their duty to explain what the changes are about.
This overstepping of boundaries seems to extend to the local level.
Embassy staff heard some "fokontany" (neighborhood) chiefs
threatening to penalize residents who do not attend
locally-organized referendum information sessions or the vote itself
on April 4.

COMMENT
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9. (SBU) While President Ravalomanana's proposals seem
well-intentioned, Post is concerned the amendments to the 1992
Constitution, whose ultimate impact is still unclear, could be
manipulated by less well-intentioned leaders in the future. The
GOM's argument that these changes will make it more efficient are
not entirely compelling; however this will only become clear as the
GOM moves to implement them. EU officials privately share many of
our concerns. With very short lead time, they fear few Malagasy
understand what seem to be substantial changes and are not entirely
convinced of the GOM's justification. However, they too will
publicly remain quiet in this internal Malagasy affair. They
pragmatically look forward to "getting it over with" so the
ministers can get back to doing their jobs. END COMMENT.

PATRICK