CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM TO BE HELD APRIL 4

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 000180

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, INR/AA, AND DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: CONSTITUTIONAL REFERENDUM TO BE HELD APRIL 4


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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: The Government of Madagascar (GOM) has announced
a Constitutional Referendum to be held April 4, 2007. A
hastily-convened committee is considering over 200 possible changes,
and will soon make recommendations to the Council of Ministers, who
will then decide which changes should be published and included in
the referendum. Civic leaders are calling for transparency and
questioning the President's motives. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) A committee of nine magistrates and other notables was
recently convened by the GOM to consider revisions of Madagascar's
1992 Constitution (the Constitution was once previously amended by
referendum in April 1998). The Constitutional Revision Preparatory
Committee is informally led by former High Constitutional Court
(HCC) President and Senator Honore Rakotomanana and the Secretary
General at the Presidency Noel Rakotondramboa. Contacts among the
nine members told Embassy staff they will not make any public
statements or accept any meeting requests while they consider over
200 submissions for possible changes received from the Government,
political parties, and civil society during a short submission
period that ended February 14.


3. (U) According to press reports, the Committee will decide -
behind closed doors - which of the proposed changes to the
Constitution will be put to a referendum April 4. While details are
not confirmed, Post believes all changes would be considered
together as a single up or down vote in the referendum; rather than
allowing a separate vote on each change. The Committee is expected
to submit its recommendations to the Council of Ministers for a
final decision on the list of referendum items by early March. Only
after that meeting will the referendum changes be published.


4. (U) Speculation about proposed changes to be included in the
referendum abounds in Antananarivo. An incomplete and unconfirmed
list of possible proposals includes:

-- Abolishing the six-province structure, leaving behind the 22
regions and the commune-level local government; thereby eliminating
one layer of government;

-- Formalizing the legal status of the 22 regions under the
Constitution, to date led by Regional Chiefs named by the
President;

-- Abolishing the Senate, leaving the National Assembly as a
unicameral legislature;

-- Creating a requirement that candidates for the Presidency must be
resident in Madagascar for six months prior to the vote;

-- Eliminating the position of Prime Minister so that the President
would be both Head of State and head of the government.

Opposition Outspoken Against Referendum
--------------


5. (U) Predictably, opposition leaders have spoken out against the
referendum process and about possible changes to the Constitution.
Recent presidential candidates Lahiniriko and Herizo have made
public statements calling for transparency and demanding to know
what issues will be considered for the referendum. An editorial in
the opposition "Tribune" newspaper expressed concern about the
rapidly-organized referendum process, and made the reasonable
argument that most Malagasy will not have time to understand the
implications of the issues at hand by April 4. The editorial
suggests the Committee is no more than a cover for President
Ravalomanana to make his own changes to the Constitution. Several
observers argued the items up for referendum should have been
published before the date of the vote was announced.


6. (U) National Elections Observation Committee (KMF/CNOE) Secretary
General Rakotoarison questioned the motivations of the President to
call for a referendum, noting that previous changes to the
Constitution typically consolidated and increased the power of the
President. Given that CNOE and other major NGOs expended their
effort and resources on the December 3 election, they have had
limited time or capacity to consider the referendum. Civic leaders
like CNOE and FFKM, a church coalition, have previously authored
lengthy proposals to change the electoral code, but are not prepared
to present changes to the Constitution.

Government Intention to Expedite Development
--------------


7. (U) There has been little government explanation or information
about the Referendum, except to say in general that Constitutional
changes are needed to accelerate the pace of economic development

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and implement the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP). One official
commented the intended changes would not increase the power of the
President, but would decrease some powers elsewhere in Government at
central and regional levels.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Until the Committee publishes the changes to be
included in the April 4 referendum, it is difficult to conclude what
the impact might be for Madagascar's governance and transparency.
Viewed in a positive light, streamlining government, eliminated
redundant layers, and improving the delivery of services could all
enhance Madagascar's efforts at economic development and poverty
reduction envisioned in the MAP. Viewed skeptically, President
Ravalomanana has a new five-year mandate in hand, and may be seeking
to eliminate perceived obstacles to implementing his vision for
Madagascar. END COMMENT.

MCGEE