Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANTANANARIVO1269
2007-12-27 13:51:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

RULING PARTY CEDES POWER GRACEFULLY IN THE CAPITAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA 
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VZCZCXRO0280
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1269 3611351
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 271351Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0815
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001269 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY CEDES POWER GRACEFULLY IN THE CAPITAL

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1234

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001269

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E AND INR/AA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY CEDES POWER GRACEFULLY IN THE CAPITAL

REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1234


1. (U) Official results trickling in from the December 12 municipal
elections seem to confirm early speculation that the President's TIM
party won throughout most of the country, with the exception of a
spectacular defeat in Antananarivo (Reftel). Businessman and
political unknown Andry "TGV" Rajoelina beat TIM incumbent Hery
Rafalimanana in Antananarivo with 63.27 percent of the vote.
Although reliable statistics are not yet available, independent
candidates had a relatively strong showing. Approximately half of
the new mayors who ran as independents hail originally from the TIM
party.


2. (U) Despite fears to the contrary, President Ravalomanana and
his party are taking their defeat in Antananarivo gracefully.
Calling TIM's loss evidence that democracy is alive and healthy in
Madagascar, President Ravalomanana has publicly said he is ready and
willing to work with all the new mayors. TIM President and Minister
of Decentralization Yvan Randriasandratriniony acknowledged in a
press conference the message sent by Antananarivo voters and said
the party would take the necessary measures to remedy the situation.
Partially blaming the long-term absence of a secretary general for
the defeat, the TIM President named Minister of Economy, Trade and
Industry Ivohasina Razafimahefa (a close Embassy contact) the new
Secretary General of TIM. In a comment indicating he will continue

SIPDIS
forging ahead with development on his own terms, President
Ravalomanana less tactfully told journalists, "I could care less
about the people's message. Whether the people are satisfied or
not, it is not my problem. I am not looking to satisfy the people,
I want what is good for them."


3. (U) Andry Rajoelina is wisely auditing the mayor's office to
ensure everything is "clean" before he fully assumes his position as
the new mayor of Antananarivo. In a press conference aired on his
privately-owned radio station VIVA December 21, Rajoelina announced
the city's outstanding debts to its suppliers allegedly amount to
7.7 billion Ariary or approximately 4.32 million USD, causing
disruption to services such as garbage collection and access to
potable water.


4. (U) The Consortium of National Election Observers (CNOE),funded
in part by the USG through a National Democratic Institute (NDI)
program, dispatched 127 election observers throughout the country.
While CNOE acknowledged the election day proceeded calmly, its
observers noted the same minor irregularities seen in previous
elections, many that could easily be addressed by electoral law
reform. Irregularities included persistent administrative problems
with voter registration lists, the bias of public media, and
candidates' unequal access to resources. A number of independent
candidates in the Antananarivo province are filing complaints with
the Supreme Court alleging that while the results registered at
district level collection centers showed them winning by a large
margin in their municipalities, the official results have a TIM
candidate winning.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: TIM President Randriasandratriniony's attempts
to characterize the number of independents hailing from TIM as proof
the party is alive and well ring hollow. The fact so many chose to
run as independents suggests TIM's internal problems are far from
being resolved. Post is encouraged by the government's initial
pledges to work with all mayors and will continue to monitor the
handover of power, particularly in Antananarivo. END COMMENT.

MARQUARDT