SCENESETTER FOR A/S FRAZER'S VISIT TO THE COMOROS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001252

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/FO -- ASSISTANT SECRETARY FRAZER
DEPT FOR AF/E -- MBEYZEROV

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON OVIP MA CN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S FRAZER'S VISIT TO THE COMOROS

REF: Antananarivo 1251


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Welcome also to Moroni! Your visit to the Union
of the Comoros comes as this fragile country faces the latest in a
long series of challenges. Your arrival, as the highest ranking
U.S. government official ever (we believe) to visit the archipelago,
gives you leverage to help steer the country toward stability and
peace. The election of President Ahmed Abdallah Sambi in 2006
marked a dramatic change as the first peaceful democratic transfer
of power in the country's troubled post-colonial history.
Unfortunately, Sambi's ability to pursue his top goal of promoting
economic growth has been stymied by rebel warlord Colonel Mohamed
Bacar on the island of Anjouan. While the other two islands held
peaceful elections last June, Bacar has clung to power in defiance
of the Union government, the African Union (AU),and supportive
statements from the U.S., France, and others. Your arrival comes
mid-way through the 60-day extension of AU sanctions against Bacar
and his henchmen. Sambi has appreciated the AU support but,
pressured by the Comoran street, is growing impatient to move to
military action against Bacar (which almost all observers think
would end in failure, if not disaster). You can counsel additional
patience, and reaffirm U.S. support for the AU. Any tangible
support you can give to Sambi will help him hew to the AU process,
but make no mistake - Sambi's political survival ultimately depends
on resolving the Anjouan problem. Ref provided a separate
scenesetter for Madagascar. END SUMMARY AND INTRODUCTION.

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COMOROS - Political
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2. (U) Lying midway between Madagascar and Mozambique, the Union of
the Comoros stands out among its neighbors in the region as a
pro-U.S., Muslim democracy. It is comprised of three
semi-autonomous islands whose governments are tenuously subordinate
to the Union government. It retains a claim on the fourth Comoran
island, Mayotte, which is administered by France. For thirty years
after independence in 1975, the Comoros were racked by coups and
counter-coups, several led by the notorious French mercenary Bob
Denard. In 1997 Anjouan and Moheli attempted to secede from the
Union and only returned when a new constitution was agreed to in

2001. This constitution stipulated a Union presidency rotating
among the three islands. In 2002 President Assoumani Azali of
Grande Comore (who had taken power earlier in a coup) was elected
president. In 2006 Sambi was one of three candidates - and the
leading vote-getter -- selected in Anjouan's primary process. In
nationwide voting among these three, Sambi won in a landslide free
and fair election. The inauguration of President Sambi in June 2006
marked the first democratic transition of power in Comoran history
and an opportunity for the U.S. to increase our engagement in the
island nation.


3. (SBU) The next step in the Comoros' democratic evolution was to
have been elections for individual island leaders in 2007. On
Grande Comore and Moheli, these were held on schedule and judged to
have been free and fair. On Anjouan, however, island "president"
(read Governor) Bacar - probably sensing that he would lose a free
election - refused to allow an impartial process and instead held a
sham election in which he "won" 90 per cent of the vote. As a
result, while the main trend in the Comoros is toward peaceful,
Muslim democracy, recent headlines have been dominated by Colonel
Bacar and his intransigence. The AU, which participated in
observation of the other two islands' elections, refused to accept
Bacar's illegitimate poll and has tried to broker a peaceful and
democratic solution to the impasse. However, as Bacar's bad faith
has become ever more apparent, the AU has gradually turned to
sterner messages to seek compliance, including sanctions that now
block travel and financial transfers by a list of persons associated
with Bacar. The first 45-day term of these sanctions expired and
the AU renewed them for an additional 60 days in late November in
the hopes that they may yet persuade Bacar to hold acceptable
elections. In the meantime, Sambi is under intense political
pressure from the people who ask why, as a "son of Anjouan," he
cannot handle Bacar. As a result, Sambi grows more impatient with
peaceful pressure and seemingly more eager to move to a military
solution. Your public support of the AU process, linked to your
support for the Union government, should give Sambi a little
breathing room and give the AU a little more time to seek a peaceful
resolution. He also needs to hear your voice joining those of
France, South Africa, and others in advising him - as Secretary Rice
did in a letter sent last summer -- to eschew violence and military
action as a means toward resolving the Anjouan crisis.


4. (SBU) Once the Anjouan crisis is resolved, and however it is
resolved, most observers agree that the Union and the three island
authorities should discuss ways to revise their political compact.
Aside from blatant inefficiencies in having three separate
bureaucratic structures in such a small and poor entity, the fact of
there being an independent militia on Anjouan proves rather
dramatically the need to reserve certain competencies, at least, to
the Union. Sambi has fully agreed to this, but will do so only with
a freely elected representative from Anjouan. The U.S. has a modest
USD 50,000 ESF project with the National Democratic Institute (NDI)
that could be used to provide technical assistance for the islands
in this process.


5. (SBU) The pragmatic GOC is reaching out to deepen its
relationships with Western, Arab, and Asian countries alike. Iran
is one of those countries who seem to be seeking a special
friendship with the Comoros, and has recently provided a fishing
boat to the government as a down payment on this relationship.
Sambi, while appreciative, has been careful to stress that while he
studied theology in Iran at one time, his government does NOT have a
special relationship with Iran. China is also active in the Comoros
- you will see the Chinese-built (but still vacant) terminal at the
airport. Nonetheless, the government of the Comoros has taken
considerable steps to show solidarity with the U.S. and they
consistently request greater U.S. engagement through development
assistance, economic programs, and the return of an American Peace
Corps and diplomatic presence. Now more than ever, the U.S. needs
peaceful, democratic, Muslim friends like the Comoros. Your timely
visit gives senior-level international recognition to the
well-intentioned but struggling Union Government. Six months after
the first U.S.-Comoran bilateral talks attended by then-Office
Director for East African Affairs Eunice Reddick, your announcement
of any new initiatives will be warmly welcomed as confirmation that
the U.S. stands behind its pledge of deeper partnership.

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COMOROS - Economic
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6. (U) The economic outlook in the Comoros is not bright. With
very little industry and few exports (chiefly vanilla, cloves and
the perfume essence of ylang-ylang),only remittances from Comorans
living abroad (mostly in southern France) - as well as budget
support from France -- keep the Comoros afloat. The IMF estimates
the Comoran economy will contract by at least one percent of GDP in

2007. Imports are down based on the declining economy, partially
caused by the blockages at the main port in Anjouan imposed by
Colonel Bacar. Several Arab Gulf nations have proposed significant
investment in tourism infrastructure, but the funds have yet to
flow. The Union government is engaged in revising its investment
laws, creating a "one-stop" investment shop, and implementing other
measures intended to make the country more receptive to foreign
investment.


7. (U) Despite fiscal revenue shortfalls, Union spending has
increased. The Union Treasury has taken on debt from all possible
domestic credit sources, including the Central Bank, savings
accounts, and from salaries arrears. Talks with the IMF on a new
Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF),at the verge of
approval this summer, have been stalled since July due to the
ongoing Anjouan crisis. Absent quick resolution of this political
impasse, it seems the heavily indebted Union of the Comoros will not
benefit from large scale debt relief anytime soon. A meeting
earlier this month to seek forgiveness of African Development Bank
debt was partially successful, with donors contributing a portion of
the target needed to annul the debt. U.S. presence at this meeting
was appreciated, but our failure to contribute funds along side
France, Britain and other partners was also noted. The Comoros have
a tight peg on the French Franc and as such have been able to keep
QLQ&qinflation in the low single digits.


8. (SBU) The U.S. contribution to Comoran development efforts has
been minimal in recent years at best and is only beginning to ramp
up. Our military colleagues from CJTF-HOA are active on the island,
rehabilitating school furniture and soon to reconstruct several
schools on Grande Comore (and hopefully later on Moheli; similar
projects identified on Anjouan are on hold). Our military also
contributed an English language lab that now is used by both
military and civilian students. We are just beginning a distance
education program, funded with ESF, for roughly half a million
dollars. Our Ambassador's Self Help and Democracy and Human Rights
projects give us an entre with civil society in the Comoros. Your
announcement of additional ESF funds for micro-enterprise
development is likely to be warmly welcomed.

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COMOROS - Security Challenges
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9. (SBU) Probably the most wanted terrorist in Africa, Harun Fazul,
is of Comoran origin. An Al Qaeda member and the alleged mastermind
of the 1998 bombings at our embassies in Nairobi and Dar, he
received his training and indoctrination after leaving the Comoros
in search of opportunity abroad. Our Comoran interlocutors are at
frequent pains to disavow his radical ideas and insist the Comoran
practice of moderate Islam offers no room for extremist ideology.
Still, with so few opportunities for education or employment, there
is an ongoing concern that other Comoran youth might easily be led
astray. The Comoran government, though very limited in capacity,
cooperates fully with us in our counterterrorism efforts and in
Rewards for Justice.


10. (SBU) The Comoros' miles of unprotected coastline also present
a maritime security challenge. Through FMF funds we are in the
process of acquiring an "Arch Angel" patrol boat to assist in
securing their maritime domain. The President may express
appreciation for this assistance, which will not arrive for another
year or so (the vessel is under construction in the state of
Washington). The most serious maritime issue, however, is outbound
migrants from the Comoros seeking to land clandestinely in
French-governed Mayotte. The small boats they employ, called
kwasa-kwasa, are often not very seaworthy and substantial numbers of
Comorans are known to have drowned trying to evade French patrols.

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COMOROS - The People
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11. (SBU) The Comoran people speak a common language and have a
common background, but do retain a strong identity to their islands
of origin. Almost all are Sunni Muslims, but many are unaware of
what the Sunni/Shi'a distinction really means. Living under
Karthala, one of the largest and most active volcanoes in the world,
those on Grande Comore have learned to live with seismic as well as
political upheavals. Although the U.S. Embassy closed in 1995 and
the Peace Corps left in 1996, we have found frequent warm memories
of the "Americans who spoke Comoran." The Comorans appreciate our
very active American Corner, but re-opening the Peace Corps presence
would provide tremendous impact in restoring our people-to-people
relations. As you know, Peace Corps Director Tschetter has agreed
in principle to reopen early in FY09; PC's feasibility assessment
was concluded over a year ago.

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COMOROS - Your Message
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12. (SBU) Your presence alone, the most senior USG official ever to
visit, will convey that the United States is seriously engaging in
and with the Comoros. This has been a sore point since our
embassy's closure over a decade ago, and your announcement of a new
diplomatic position focused entirely on U.S.-Comoran relations -
even if initially based in Antananarivo - will send an important
message of engagement. Coming in the wake of the recent launch of
the long-awaited USAID distance learning project and the growing
CJTF-HOA presence on Grande Comore, any new programs or projects you
can announce will add to the new spirit of bilateral engagement.
Your support of the elected Union government in its dispute with the
island rebels will be deeply appreciated and will give you the
stature to speak in support of giving the AU process more time to
seek a peaceful resolution of the Anjouan impasse. Privately, it
will be important for President Sambi to hear you reinforce
Secretary Rice's advice to resolve their dispute peacefully through

SIPDIS
negotiation, not violence. In addition, coming right after the
major Muslim holiday of Eid il-Adha, your warm holiday wishes will
send the American message of tolerance and mutual respect that
perhaps is important to be heard throughout the Muslim world.

MARQUARDT