Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANTANANARIVO1243
2007-12-14 04:14:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:
PRESIDENT LOSES ANTANANARIVO
how-toVZCZCXRO1540 OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN DE RUEHAN #1243 3480414 ZNR UUUUU ZZH O 140414Z DEC 07 FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0781 INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AF DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY COLLECTIVE RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHINGTON DC
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001243
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT LOSES ANTANANARIVO
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1231
B) ANTANANARIVO 1063
UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001243
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT LOSES ANTANANARIVO
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1231
B) ANTANANARIVO 1063
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unofficial results from the December 12 municipal
elections show the ruling TIM Party of President Marc Ravalomanana
faring well throughout the country, with the notable exception of a
humiliating upset in the capital of Antananarivo. Andry "TGV"
Rajoelina, a successful businessman but political unknown, appears
to have won a landslide victory against the TIM incumbent Hery
Rafalimanana. The public is calling Rajoelina's win a vote of
protest against cost of living and power outage problems in the
capital, and hopes it will serve as an "alert" to the President that
changes are in order throughout the country. In general, the
elections took place peacefully with minor irregularities
surrounding voter registration lists and voter cards. END SUMMARY.
2. (U) While it is too soon to tell just how well TIM fared
throughout the country, the first unofficial results show TIM
leading in major regional cities. Voter participation, estimated to
fall between 25 and 30 percent throughout most of the country, was
noticeably higher in Antananarivo with an estimated 40 to 50 percent
showing up at the polls - approximately double the urban turnout of
the September 23 National Assembly elections (Ref B).
3. (SBU) Unofficial results show the independent Andry Rajoelina
sweeping the polls in Antananarivo with approximately 62 percent of
the vote; Embassy staff, observing at seven polling stations
throughout the city, confirm these estimates. That the President's
party lost in his hometown, indeed even in his own polling station,
and on his 58th birthday, is a humiliating upset. The President had
attached enormous importance to these elections, even skipping the
Europe-Africa Summit in Lisbon in order to campaign. In the
President's privately owned newspaper, "political observers" -
likely the newspaper editors themselves - opined that Antananarivo
residents showed they are not yet ready for development by issuing a
"kamikaze vote" for a stranger over a candidate who has demonstrated
concrete achievements. It remains to be seen whether there will be
professional repercussions against long-time Foreign Minister Marcel
Ranjeva, who had been placed in charge of mobilizing TIM voters in
the capital city. In the past, Ravalomanana has exacted a
professional price in cases where his political operatives did not
deliver.
4. (U) Election Day proceeded smoothly with reports of minor
irregularities surrounding voter registration lists and voter cards.
At one Antananarivo polling station, 25 envelopes were found
pre-stuffed with TIM ballots. Although Andry Rajoelina had
complained preceding the elections that the Government of Madagascar
(GOM) manipulated voter lists to TIM's advantage and failed to hand
over the voter list and number of voting stations, his camp will not
be filing a formal complaint after his landslide win. In their
view, the most important issue at this point is the smooth
transition of power.
5. (SBU) COMMENT: Andry Rajoelina's win in Antananarivo appears
largely a vote of protest against the cost of living, constant power
outages, and lack of infrastructure, all of which TIM has not been
able to address. Also, the TIM incumbent was a pure Ravalomanana
creation - another "Tiko Boy" anointed by his former boss - which
also engendered voter resentment. In addition, the 37-year-old
Rajoelina - who looks far younger -- mobilized a youthful voter base
through his energetic campaign. Finally, it may be seen as a vote
for greater democracy in Madagascar following the monolithic victory
of TIM in the National Assembly elections (Ref B). Speakers on
radio call-in programs expressed the hope this election would be a
"lesson" to the GOM that it ought to think seriously about changing
its priorities and allow Rajoelina to do his work as the new mayor.
President Ravalomanana could head off opposition efforts to exploit
his loss by working with Andry Rajoelina, who was careful to couch
his role as "an alternative, not an opponent." However, neither the
president nor the GOM has yet reacted publicly to the upset. It is
too early to assess the country-wide impact of TIM's loss of
Antananarivo, but this may well serve as an "alert" to the
President. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT
SIPDIS
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND INR/B
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT LOSES ANTANANARIVO
REF: A) ANTANANARIVO 1231
B) ANTANANARIVO 1063
1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Unofficial results from the December 12 municipal
elections show the ruling TIM Party of President Marc Ravalomanana
faring well throughout the country, with the notable exception of a
humiliating upset in the capital of Antananarivo. Andry "TGV"
Rajoelina, a successful businessman but political unknown, appears
to have won a landslide victory against the TIM incumbent Hery
Rafalimanana. The public is calling Rajoelina's win a vote of
protest against cost of living and power outage problems in the
capital, and hopes it will serve as an "alert" to the President that
changes are in order throughout the country. In general, the
elections took place peacefully with minor irregularities
surrounding voter registration lists and voter cards. END SUMMARY.
2. (U) While it is too soon to tell just how well TIM fared
throughout the country, the first unofficial results show TIM
leading in major regional cities. Voter participation, estimated to
fall between 25 and 30 percent throughout most of the country, was
noticeably higher in Antananarivo with an estimated 40 to 50 percent
showing up at the polls - approximately double the urban turnout of
the September 23 National Assembly elections (Ref B).
3. (SBU) Unofficial results show the independent Andry Rajoelina
sweeping the polls in Antananarivo with approximately 62 percent of
the vote; Embassy staff, observing at seven polling stations
throughout the city, confirm these estimates. That the President's
party lost in his hometown, indeed even in his own polling station,
and on his 58th birthday, is a humiliating upset. The President had
attached enormous importance to these elections, even skipping the
Europe-Africa Summit in Lisbon in order to campaign. In the
President's privately owned newspaper, "political observers" -
likely the newspaper editors themselves - opined that Antananarivo
residents showed they are not yet ready for development by issuing a
"kamikaze vote" for a stranger over a candidate who has demonstrated
concrete achievements. It remains to be seen whether there will be
professional repercussions against long-time Foreign Minister Marcel
Ranjeva, who had been placed in charge of mobilizing TIM voters in
the capital city. In the past, Ravalomanana has exacted a
professional price in cases where his political operatives did not
deliver.
4. (U) Election Day proceeded smoothly with reports of minor
irregularities surrounding voter registration lists and voter cards.
At one Antananarivo polling station, 25 envelopes were found
pre-stuffed with TIM ballots. Although Andry Rajoelina had
complained preceding the elections that the Government of Madagascar
(GOM) manipulated voter lists to TIM's advantage and failed to hand
over the voter list and number of voting stations, his camp will not
be filing a formal complaint after his landslide win. In their
view, the most important issue at this point is the smooth
transition of power.
5. (SBU) COMMENT: Andry Rajoelina's win in Antananarivo appears
largely a vote of protest against the cost of living, constant power
outages, and lack of infrastructure, all of which TIM has not been
able to address. Also, the TIM incumbent was a pure Ravalomanana
creation - another "Tiko Boy" anointed by his former boss - which
also engendered voter resentment. In addition, the 37-year-old
Rajoelina - who looks far younger -- mobilized a youthful voter base
through his energetic campaign. Finally, it may be seen as a vote
for greater democracy in Madagascar following the monolithic victory
of TIM in the National Assembly elections (Ref B). Speakers on
radio call-in programs expressed the hope this election would be a
"lesson" to the GOM that it ought to think seriously about changing
its priorities and allow Rajoelina to do his work as the new mayor.
President Ravalomanana could head off opposition efforts to exploit
his loss by working with Andry Rajoelina, who was careful to couch
his role as "an alternative, not an opponent." However, neither the
president nor the GOM has yet reacted publicly to the upset. It is
too early to assess the country-wide impact of TIM's loss of
Antananarivo, but this may well serve as an "alert" to the
President. END COMMENT.
MARQUARDT