BRINGING COMOROS INTO THE FOLD

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001236

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR E, AF/E AND AF/FO
ALSO FOR DS/DSS/ATA - DROTHSTEIN
PASS TO USTR FOR FLISER
NSC FOR BPITTMAN AND BLEO

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV ETRD ECON EAID KDEM CN
SUBJECT: BRINGING COMOROS INTO THE FOLD

Ref: A) ANTANANARIVO 815
B) ANTANANARIVO 1202


1. (SBU) SUMMARY: As we look at the question of AGOA eligibility for
Comoros, the two key interlocking issues are security and
opportunity - and how each could be strengthened by AGOA. The
Comoran people have a tragic history and few economic endowments;
their most famous native son is infamous - the Al Qaeda mastermind
of the 1998 Embassy bombings, Harun Fazul. Fazul is a source of
shame to most Comorans, but his desperate turn to extremism and
violence illustrates how lack of opportunity in the Comoros can harm
U.S. interests, including our very security.


2. (SBU) In response to that threat, U.S. engagement in the Comoros
is on the upswing. Today it includes a USAID distance education
project, CJTF-HOA soldiers and Seabees refurbishing schools, the
recent first-ever U.S. Navy ship visit, an English language lab and
a vibrant American Corner in Moroni, frequent visits by the
Ambassador and mission staff - and a few more programs currently in
gestation. Beyond these, the Union government has requested a
return of the Peace Corps, re-establishment of an American
diplomatic presence in the country, and AGOA eligibility.


3. (SBU) More than any other program, they seek AGOA for the
opportunity it will bring over time for the people of Comoros. AGOA
will not have a strong immediate economic impact, but it quickly
will show U.S. support for democratically-elected President Sambi
and for Comoran democracy, as well as recognition of progress made
under difficult circumstances to improve its investment climate,
reform its economy, and create jobs and opportunity. Over the
longer term, it may open the doors to jobs and opportunities that
could make the next clever young Comoran a dynamic entrepreneur,
rather than a terrorist like Harun Fazul. END SUMMARY.

Pro-American Muslim Democracy
--------------


4. (SBU) The Union of the Comoros is a pro-American Muslim
democratic country vulnerable to the influence of Iran and terrorist
organizations. It is a country of paradoxes. During a recent
visit, students coming out of an Islamic studies school were eager
to practice their English with an Embassy Officer passing by;
indeed, our American Corner is frequented night and day, and English
lessons there are in high demand. In Moroni and every other Comoran
town, young men sit idly with nothing to do. The Union and Island
Governments, employing no more than 6,000 people, are the largest
employers in a nation of over 700,000 people. Jobs are so scarce
that janitors at ministries are replaced when a new administration
comes in.


5. (SBU) Recent investment interests from Dubai and Kuwait are
betting on the stable and pro-business environment espoused by
President Sambi, who is also one of the Comoros' few successful
entrepreneurs. At a recent ceremony to receive official Iranian
largesse - a fishing vessel - President Sambi offered thanks, but
emphasized he had no special relationship with Tehran, even adding
that, while he had been a student in Iran, he had not - despite
extensive overseas travels - visited again since becoming president.
In private conversations with the Ambassador, Sambi and Minister of
Foreign Affairs Jaffar have emphasized that they accept Iranian
assistance, but with "no strings attached." Proposed but as yet
unrealized Iranian assistance to the Comoros (other than the vessel)
include opening reciprocal Embassies, agricultural training,
scholarships, exchanges, and business development.

Harun Fazul the "Exception"
--------------


6. (SBU) President Sambi, like President Azali before him, willingly
cooperates in the Rewards for Justice Program for the capture of
Harun Fazul. Both abhor the notion that Fazul represents the
Comoros in any way; Comorans are proud of their reputations as
moderate and peaceful Muslims. In a recent conversation with the
Ambassador, Azali reiterated his desire for close relations with the
United States. He also recalled expelling the popular humanitarian
NGO el-Haramein, at U.S. Government request, because of its terror
links. No doubt he also recalls - but was too polite to say - that
Comoros are still waiting for the U.S. to make good on promises made
at that time to fill the resultant void.


7. (SBU) Before masterminding the terrorist attacks on U.S.
Embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam, Fazul left Comoros for study
and opportunity abroad, eventually adopting radical doctrine in
Sudan and Pakistan. It is uncertain if Fazul would dare visit his
homeland, although he retains family ties there. He is no doubt
aware, however, that the Comoros is home to thousands of idle,
impressionable young men who might - as he was - be won to the
extremist cause. Muslim elders in the Comoros often share this
concern, and they worry about other radicals - Comoran students
returned from Pakistan or Saudi Arabia - who preach extremist
doctrine to a growing following. President Azali founded a
university in Comoros, driven, he said, by concern that sending all
Comorans abroad for study would eventually radicalize the
population. Today, those who graduate face weak job prospects.

Policies for Growth and Stability
--------------


8. (SBU) In holding open the opportunity of real friendship with the
United States and not (yet) embracing Iran, President Sambi has two
objectives. Seeing young Comorans die each year in the treacherous
crossing to French-administered Mayotte, Sambi wants to attract
investors and promote entrepreneurship to create opportunities for
Comorans at home. Even while his government grapples with the
intransigent Colonel Bacar, Sambi's team has streamlined business
procedures, held conferences with young graduates on possible
business ventures, sought to reschedule its debt, and traveled
relentlessly to court investors. AGOA eligibility would provide an
additional incentive to invest in the Comoros; indeed, its absence
probably acts as a damper to many of these efforts as investment
follows AGOA.


9. (SBU) To advance this effort, the Union Ministry of Economy,
Trade, Labor, and Women's Empowerment is partnering with UNDP and
the ILO to attract investment to create jobs. The Minister is
working with donors for "The Creation of a Development Fund to
Guarantee and Insure Investments, Decent Jobs, and Revenues." The
plan is founded on poverty reduction via economic growth. The
Minister builds on Resolution No. 07/002/Au of September 3, 2007, by
the Union National Assembly, improving the investment code and
recommending improved business procedures. The Ministry has already
created a "one-stop shop" for business/investor registration whose
goal is approvals within three days.


10. (SBU) Another AGOA eligibility criterion concerns child labor,
which has not become a major issue in the Comoros. It is limited to
a fairly small number of children sent by their families to work in
richer homes, and otherwise does not exist outside subsistence
farming and fishing. There are no reports of children working in
factories, mining, or prostitution. In any case, Union law
prohibits children working under the age of 15. Enforcement is
uneven, but the overall child labor picture in Comoros is similar or
even compares favorably to that of most AGOA-eligible countries.
The Regional ILO Representative recently told the Ambassador that
the ILO eventually will propose programs to address child labor in
households, but puts a higher priority on first helping the Comoros
implement its growth and job creation strategy.

Pariah or Respectable Country?
--------------


11. (SBU) President Sambi also wants to use his one term in office
to do away with the Comoros' reputation as a "pariah" and establish
the archipelago as a respectable country. He recognizes that the
Anjouan standoff risks undermining this effort if not resolved soon
and peacefully. In decrying the "false face" of Islam put forth by
terrorists, Sambi also seeks respect and dignity for his people and
his religion. He readily admits he accepts Iranian gifts -- out of
necessity. He fears the influence of radical Islamists on young
Comorans because he cannot offer alternatives. Should Comoros be
accepted for AGOA now, President Sambi will tell his people that the
reform efforts of the Union Government - and the democratic actions
of the people -- have been acknowledged by the United States. He
will seek to use this as leverage to persuade Bacar to stand aside
and allow economic progress at last to take root for the benefit of
all Comorans.


12. (SBU) COMMENT. From our perspective, a determination of AGOA
eligibility for Comoros would help the democratically-elected Union
government bring opportunity and security to the Comoros - making it
less likely to be the home of future Harun Fazuls. Conversely,
continuing to deny AGOA will make it harder for the country to
attract investment, which could threaten its fragile democracy and
reverse course back toward its tragic history. Objectively, we
think the Comoros compares well to most countries already in AGOA
with respect to the eligibility criteria; indeed, there is even a
reasonable case to be made for an MCC threshold compact for the
Comoros. This decision takes place in the context of deepening
American engagement with the Comoros. In every other area, despite
difficult resource constraints, we are looking to offer carrots to
the Union government. AGOA is that rare carrot that can enhance
opportunity and security without major resource implications. If we
are serious about helping the Comoros move forward, we should offer
this carrot now.

MARQUARDT