Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANTANANARIVO1227
2007-12-06 04:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Antananarivo
Cable title:  

COMOROS: HOPE REMAINS FOR A NEGOTIATED ANJOUAN

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON SOCI EAID CN 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 060417Z DEC 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0759
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001227 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FROM THE AMBASSADOR
DEPT PASS A/S FRAZER IN SECRETARY'S PARTY
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SOCI EAID CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS: HOPE REMAINS FOR A NEGOTIATED ANJOUAN
SETTLEMENT

REF: A. A) ANTANANARIVO 1210

B. B) ANTANANARIVO 1221

Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt for reasons 1.4 (a) and (b)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FROM THE AMBASSADOR
DEPT PASS A/S FRAZER IN SECRETARY'S PARTY
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON SOCI EAID CN
SUBJECT: COMOROS: HOPE REMAINS FOR A NEGOTIATED ANJOUAN
SETTLEMENT

REF: A. A) ANTANANARIVO 1210

B. B) ANTANANARIVO 1221

Classified By: Ambassador Niels Marquardt for reasons 1.4 (a) and (b)


1. (C) I visited Moroni November 28-30 to take stock of
political and economic developments there, and to pave the
way for A/S Frazer,s December 22-23 visit there. This visit
came in the immediate wake of the AU Peace and Security
Council,s (PSC ) see reftel a) decision to extend Anjouan
sanctions for 60 days, until approximately January 25. Even
more than during my previous two visits, the continuing
Anjouan crisis was the sole topic in many of my discussions.
However, I also had a useful exchange with the Union Economy
Minister about ongoing reforms intended to improve the
investment and business climate. He and others said they
would welcome AGOA eligibility as consistent with their
efforts to create private sector solutions to their economic
challenges. Also on this visit, I launched a long-gestating
USAID distance learning project, held a news conference also
attended by my Comoran counterpart in the U.S. (at which
Anjouan, not the education program, was the main topic),and
visited civil works projects under way by two dozen soldiers
and Seabees from CJTF-HOA. These activities, coupled with
anticipation of the visit of Ambassador Frazer and the
participation of the USG in the November 28 AfDB debt relief
conference for the Comoros in Paris, have raised the U.S.
profile in the Comoros, as well as popular hope that our
engagement will continue and intensify.

Anjouan, Anjouan, Anjouan ) To Invade or to Negotiate?
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Anjouan was the focus of my discussions with President
Sambi, Foreign Minister Jaffar, Defense Minister Dossar, Army
Chief of Staff Salimou, the Ambassadors of France, South
Africa, and the AU, Grande Comore (Ngazidja) Island President
Abdulwahid, and former Union President Azali. Already caught

between a rock and a hard place over his failure to either
resolve Anjouan or advance the development agenda on which he
was elected, Sambi was clearly angry and perhaps also off
balance following the AU PSC decision &merely8 to extend
sanctions. His only request to me was for help in convincing
the French to intervene massively and militarily. He then
abruptly left for Tanzania, leading to speculation that he
might be asking President Kikwete for military support from
the 200 Tanzanian troops sent in June to monitor elections
and still encamped in Moroni. The French Ambassador
immediately dismissed the French military option with me ) a
point he made unambiguously and at length in my presence at a
lunch also attended by both the Defense Minister and Chief of
Staff (and thus surely reported back to Sambi shortly after
his return from Tanzania). The South African, representing
the one other country some Comorans might eye for military
support, also denied that option categorically. (I also
spoke to the Moroccan Ambassador in Antananarivo, who readily
admits that Morocco is providing arms to Sambi but also
stresses that they are advising restraint at the same time.)


3. (C) Indeed, a common refrain in my discussions was &who
would ever intervene militarily in a foreign conflict that
has not yet even become violent?8 Responding to widespread
unease and after graffiti appeared overnight in "downtown"
Moroni demanding that the AU leave, AU Rep Mourad held his
own press conference on November 29 to explain that the first
45 days of sanctions had been ineffective mainly because they
only started to be enforced on Day 20; therefore, the PSC
decided that more time is needed. Former Union President
Azali and Island President Abdulwahid) an erstwhile Sambi
ally perceived to have betrayed Sambi with his own October
trip to see Colonel Bacar in Anjouan ) joined the French,
South African, AU Rep and others in expressing remaining hope
for a negotiated solution that would lead to legitimate
Anjouan elections. The Grande Comoran President was
unapologetic for his initiative toward Bacar (about whom he
said he has no illusions) and said that it was "the
responsibility of Comorans like himself to explore every
possible avenue" to resolving this impasse, even if it meant
discomfort in his relations with Sambi. The view shared by
him, Azali, and most others is that poisoned personal
relations with Bacar make it impossible for Sambi to be the
one to take any initiative toward negotiations with Bacar;

ANTANANARI 00001227 002 OF 002


this also explains Sambi,s continuing focus on an invasion
as the only remaining solution. No contact outside his
government supports Sambi's view.

Could a Comoran Solution lead to Anjouan Elections?
-------------- --------------


4. (C) A/S Frazer,s December 22-23 visit will be well-timed
for her to reinforce the message to Sambi and others that
negotiation, not invasion, is the way forward. If Sambi
himself is not in a position -- and I agree that he is not
--to advance an initiative toward Bacar that would allow new
Anjouan elections, he might be persuaded to tolerate other
Comorans ) perhaps the other two Island Presidents ) being
given space and/or even a mandate to do so. Reliance on the
AU alone is unrealistic, as the AU processes are untested,
slow, and cumbersome -- and the solution should be Comoran if
it is to endure. One hard red line that no one seems willing
to cross is allowing Bacar, having seized power
illegitimately, to represent Anjouan in any negotiation; some
guarantees to Bacar of future safety may therefore be the
price of getting him to step back and allow elections. (This
might be a legitimate non-military role the French coulQlay
-- to offer Bacar and his immediate family asylum if heQelieves his personal safQ could not be guaranteed if he
loses the Anjouan election, or if he chooses not to run.)
After elections, there seems to be consensus that a Comoran
Round-Table Discussion will be necessary to revisit remaining
problems with the complex constitution currently in force.
However, a second red line precludes any discussion of those
issues before Anjouan elections are held.

Meanwhile, Reforming the Economy
--------------


5. (C) There were a few more glimmers of hope during the
visit on economic issues. The AfDB Debt Relief Conference in
Paris, which ended while I was there, was widely discussed
and covered in the press, and seen as a great success,
however incomplete. American participation in the meeting
was warmly welcomed, even as American failure to contribute
financially was also noted. I met separately with the Union
Economy Minister, who was pleased to share ongoing efforts to
streamline the economy. He is close to creating a
&One-Stop8 Investment Shop which, he said, will require
investment authorizations to be granted within three days. I
met with a visiting ILO team looking at supporting a
micro-finance project to support women entrepreneurs; they
had also met with the Minister, and declared his workplan to
be solid from a policy perspective. The enabling law has
already been passed simplifying and streamlining business
start-up procedures; all that remains is a Presidential
Decree which he expects before the end of December. He
expressed hope that the Comoros would be found eligible for
AGOA as a way to stimulate investment from and trade with the
U.S. He initially expressed willingness to open their market
on a reciprocal basis but was pleased to understand that AGOA
grants access to the U.S. market unilaterally. WeQso
explained to him USG concerns about how the Anjouan situQon
might affect AGOA Qigibility and/or operations. After
explaining how the Union and Island customs departments
divide their responsibilities, he replied that &Anjouan is a
passing problem that will be resolved shortly.8


MARQUARDT