UNION PLEDGES NO ACTION AGAINST ANJOUAN BEFORE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 001171

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

ADDIS ABABE FOR USAU - AMBASSADOR COURVILLE
DEPT FOR AF/E AND AF/FO
DEPT FOR DS/IP/AF/E RMEDRANO
AID FOR EGAT/WID
PARIS FOR D'ELIA
PRETORIA FOR POLCOUNS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM MOPS PHUM CN
SUBJECT: UNION PLEDGES NO ACTION AGAINST ANJOUAN BEFORE
DECEMBER

REF: ANTANANARIVO 1147 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR
REASONS 1.4B AND D


1. (C) The people of the Union of the Comoros are on
"standby" as the standoff with Anjouan continues. Union
Government officials are committed to cooperating with the
African Union (AU) to give sanctions against Anjouan (which
will run out on November 24) a chance to work, but they will
not wait indefinitely. Minister of Exterior Relations
Jaffar, Vice-President Dhoinine, and Chief of the Army Staff
Salimou have all confirmed to Post the Union Government will
take no "action" (read: military) against Anjouan before
December. Meanwhile, the international community complains
all political and economic life in Moroni is frozen.


2. (U) Next door in Anjouan, "President" Bacar is digging in.
In retaliation for the AU sanctions banning travel and
freezing assets of key Anjouan figures, Bacar has issued his
own two lists: one of those (his political opponents) not
allowed to leave Anjouan, and one of those (mostly Union
Government officials) not allowed to enter Anjouan. At the
main port in Anjouan, Bacar is holding up a number of
containers destined for Grand Comore and Moheli, raising
concerns the two islands will not receive their adequate
imports.


3. (SBU) USAID Disaster Relief Expert Harlan Hale currently
on the ground in Moroni noted increased traffic of Comorans
between the four islands of the Comoran archipelago.
Displaced people, mostly families, seeking refuge from
Anjouan in Moheli and Grande Comore number in the hundreds.
In addition, French-administered Mayotte is starting to
return illegal Comorans to Moheli, instead of to Anjouan as
per usual. Once returned, these illegals either stay in
Moheli, travel to Grande Comore or Anjouan, or attempt to
return illegally to Mayotte. The relatively low numbers of
displaced and deported Comorans do not yet constitute a
crisis, but there is concern that future arrivals could cause
instability on Grand Comore and Moheli as their already
limited resources are stretched even thinner. Security
contacts also fear growing resentment of Anjouan could lead
to clashes between the general public and the military, as
two thirds of the Comoran National Army hail from Anjouan.


4. (C) COMMENT: The situation in the Comoros continues to
stagnate with no sign Bacar will back down in Anjouan. There
is no clear understanding of what action the AU or the Union
Government, working independently or together, will take
after sanctions expire on November 24. Union Government
officials are aware of the importance of Assistant Secretary
Jendayi Frazer's upcoming visit to the Comoros scheduled for
November 29 and 30 and have assured Post no action will be
taken before or during her visit. However, both patience and
options are growing short, and, barring a breakthrough,
pressure to take decisive action will no doubt increase in
December. END COMMENT.


SIBLEY