RULING PARTY VICTORIOUS IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

UNCLAS ANTANANARIVO 001063

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, DRL
PARIS FOR D'ELIA

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR MA
SUBJECT: RULING PARTY VICTORIOUS IN LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

REF: ANTANANARIVO 869 AND PREVIOUS


1. (U) SUMMARY: The High Constitutional Court (HCC) announced
October 13 the official results of the September 23 National
Assembly elections: President Ravalomanana's "Tiako I Madagasikara"
(TIM) party won 105 seats, others won 20 seats, and two elections
were voided for irregularities. New elections for these two seats,
where a combined 60,000 votes were voided, will be held November 12.
All but two of the 20 races TIM lost were won by independents;
among known opposition parties, only Herizo Razafimhaleo's
LEADER-FANILO party won a seat. President Ravalomanana is expected
to reshuffle his cabinet this week. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The HCC announced October 13 that President Ravalomanana's
TIM Party officially won an overwhelming majority in the National
Assembly with at least 105 of 127 seats. The elections in two
districts, Mananara Avaratra (Analanjorofo Region) and Bealanana
(Sofia Region),were cancelled for irregularities and will be held
again November 12. Over 60,000 ballots were declared invalid
between these two districts. Twenty seats were won by non-TIM
candidates, mostly independents and minor parties. Herizo's
LEADER-FANILO won one seat. Only 20 of the new Deputies (from any
affiliation) have previously served in Parliament, thus over 100 are
rookies. A total of 10 women were elected to the National Assembly,
seven TIM members and three independents.


3. (SBU) According to Malagasy law, the new National Assembly will
hold its first session October 23, the second Tuesday after the HCC
announcement. President Ravalomanana is expected to reshuffle his
cabinet before then, in particular to decide the futures of six
sitting Ministers who were elected as Deputies. The law prohibits
officials from holding both posts. Minister of Decentralization
Ivan Randriasandratriniony, who was recently named TIM Party
President, is a close advisor to the President and key official in
the Madagascar Action Plan (MAP). The long-serving and effective
Minister of Health, Jean Louis Robinson, was also elected Deputy,
but is not expected to leave his Ministry. The remaining four -
Minister of Finance Benjamin Radavidson, Minister of Energy Patrick
Ramiaramanana, Minister of Mines Donat Andriamahefamparany, and
Minister of Environment Bernard Koto - who won Deputy elections,
could likely be excused from their Ministries to join the National
Assembly.


4. (U) Former Prime Minister Jacques Sylla was elected Deputy and is
a possible candidate for President of the National Assembly when it
convenes. The Director of the Port of Tamatave, Pierrot Botozaza,
also won on the TIM ticket. Any of the Ministers leaving their
posts to become a Deputy would also be candidates for leadership
positions in the National Assembly. President Ravalomanana is
expected to name a new cabinet by October 19 - in the mean time, a
spokesman for the Prime Minister said the six Ministers who were
elected will not take part in cabinet meetings until their futures
are known. Ministers who are selected to remain in the Cabinet are
allowed by law to pass their Deputy seat to another member of the
TIM party.

COMMENT:
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5. (SBU) The atmospherics following the HCC announcement were of
celebration: the HCC President, National Electoral Commission (CNE)
President, and Prime Minister toasted each other on "their" victory.
At a small gathering to which the diplomatic corps was invited, the
monitors (CNE),certifiers (HCC),organizers (GOM),and victors
(TIM) all patted each other on the back for their success. While
perhaps not inappropriate, it was a telling visual to see all the
components of President Ravalomanana's political machine partying.



6. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: The elections solidly asserted TIM's
control over the National Assembly; its dominance improved from 68
to over 80 percent of seats. The Ministry of Interior recently
announced that municipal and communal elections will be held on
December 12, in what will be Madagascar's fourth election in one
year. Voter fatigue, and perhaps a sense that TIM wins were
inevitable, was evident in the low turnout rate (46 percent) for the
legislative elections. Post anticipates more of the same in the
upcoming municipal elections. END COMMENT.

NEUBERT