TURKEY: CODEL SKELTON DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 003045

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL OREP AM IZ IR TU KV IS KPAL
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CODEL SKELTON DISCUSSES REGIONAL ISSUES
WITH TURKISH LEADERSHIP

Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
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1. (C) President Gul, PM Erdogan, DCHOD Saygun and DefMin
Gonul all expressed satisfaction with U.S. support to Turkey
against PKK terrorism. The Turkish people have a more
positive view of the U.S. as a result. Codel Skelton
stressed the common struggle against terrorism and U.S.
understanding for recent Turkish strikes against PKK
terrorists in northern Iraq. Citing the concerns of
Ambassador Crocker and Gen Petraeus in Iraq, the Codel
stressed that Iraq's stability must not be jeopardized. The
members explained that Congress did not intend to irritate
Turkey by considering an Armenian genocide resolution but
rather had hoped to address the events of 1915 and put them
behind us. Expressing appreciation for Turkey's role in
Middle East peace efforts, Codel asked for Turkey's support
with Iran and Syria. Members urged Turkey to consider early
recognition of an independent Kosovo. Erdogan and Gul made
no commitment on recognition but stated Turkish policy is in
line with ours. End summary

PKK/Iraq: Must Preserve Iraq Stability
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2. (C) Turkish officials all expressed appreciation for
intensified U.S. cooperation with Turkey against the PKK, as
promised by President Bush during his November 5 meeting with
PM Erdogan. PM Erdogan stated that the bilateral cooperation
had resulted in a fundamental shift in how the U.S. is
perceived in Turkey and is a good example of our strategic
partnership. DCHOD Gen Saygun contrasted Turkey-U.S.
cooperation against the PKK with lack of action on the part
of several European allies. Codel members expressed
understanding for recent Turkish strikes against PKK targets
in northern Iraq. They also conveyed the concerns expressed
to them by Ambassador Crocker and Gen Petraeus in Iraq that
Turkish airstrikes on December 16 went further than we would
have wished. They reminded Turkish officials of the
importance of supporting, not undermining, stability in Iraq.
PM Erdogan rebuffed this concern and referred to his
November 5 meeting with President Bush. Saygun assured the
Codel that Turkey would only target the PKK and not
civilians, recognizing that Turkey's stability is directly
related to Iraq's. President Gul equated U.S. success in
Iraq with Turkey's success. He added that the PKK is also a
threat to Iraqi Kurds and speculated that Kurdish authorities
privately welcomed Turkish strikes.

Iran's Nuclear Ambitions
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3. (C) Gen Saygun told the Codel that, while he hoped the
National Intelligence Estimate's judgment that Iran had
ceased its nuclear weapons program in 2003 was correct, he
was not confident Iran had given up its efforts. At the same
time, Iran is using Shi'a populations to increase its
regional influence. Defense Minister Gonul said he opposed
any of Turkey's neighbors having nuclear weapons, but was
skeptical Iran was seeking to develop a nuclear weapon,
citing lack of evidence from the IAEA. Governing Justice and
Development Party (AKP) MP and NATO Parliamentary Group
member Vahit Erdem stated he believed Iran had the intention
to develop a nuclear weapon. He and Gonul both suggested
that, should Iran acquire a nuclear weapon, it would be
difficult for any Turkish government to resist doing so as
well, although it would be an expensive and futile exercise.
Rep Engel voiced his own skepticism about Iran's intentions
and asked for continued Turkish support to help thwart Iran's
nuclear ambitions.

Kosovo: Recognition of Independence
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4. (C) Rep Engel urged Turkey to recognize Kosovo's
independence, once it is declared, describing Turkey as an
important player in the Balkans. While not committing Turkey
to any recognition timetable, President Gul stated that

Kosovo's independence was inevitable, but must be handed
wisely to ensure a smooth transition. PM Erdogan assured the
Codel that Turkey's thinking is in line with the U.S.
approach.

Armenian Genocide Resolution
--------------


5. (C) Codel members explained to Turkish officials that
House consideration of an Armenian genocide resolution was in
no way intended as an insult to Turkey or meant to undermine
bilateral relations. The intent was to address a difficult
historical event and then put it behind us. Most members of
Congress were not aware of the depth Turkey's feelings about
Armenian genocide claims. The Codel expressed doubt that the
resolution will come to a floor vote soon. They opined that
Turkey should work harder to explain its views in the U.S.
President Gul and DCHOD Saygun stressed that Turkey feels no
enmity towards Armenia and has made gestures, including the
opening of Ottoman archives and a proposal to establish a
joint historical commission open to third parties, to
encourage an academic analysis of the events of 1915.
Meanwhile, Turkey allows flights to and from Armenia,
tolerates 40 thousand or more illegal Armenian workers, and
has opened its NATO facilities and activities to Armenian
participation, gestures to which Armenia has not responded.


6. (C) PM Erdogan pointed out a number of bills and
resolutions that Turks perceive as being "anti-Turkey"
pending before the Congress, including several dealing with
Turkey's relations with Greece and Cyprus, such as H.R. 199,
H.R. 407, H.R. 627, H.R. 695, and H.R. 1456, among others.
No other ally of the United States seems to be subject to as
many negative legislative initiatives. Noting that
Turkey-Greece relations have never been stronger, Erdogan
said a few historical issues remain outstanding. Turkey
needs U.S. support to help resolve them.

Syria and Middle East
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7. (C) The Codel expressed thanks for Turkey's efforts to
promote peace in the Middle East, including its participation
in the Annapolis talks. Members expressed particular
appreciation for Turkey-Israel ties. Gen Saygun noted that
Israeli officers were in his headquarters the same day for
high level defense talks. President Gul stressed Turkey's
efforts to take advantage of its historical links to both
Israel and the Arab states to promote peace. He described
the joint visit of Israeli President Peres and Palestinian
Authority President Abbas, as well as Turkey's commercial and
economic initiatives aimed at giving the Palestinian people
some hope for the future.


8. (C) The Codel asked for Turkey's support to discourage
Syrian meddling in Lebanon and support for terrorism. DCHOD
Saygun stated that Bashar Asad is more reasonable than his
father, but remains under the influence of his father's
advisors. Turkey is trying to convince Bashar to turn
towards the West, rather than towards Iran and the East.


9. (U) The Codel did not have an opportunity to clear this
cable.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON