TURKEY PREPARING TO REVIVE EU REFORMS IN 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 003044

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY PREPARING TO REVIVE EU REFORMS IN 2008

REF: ANKARA 2762

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4 (b),(d
)


1. (C) Summary and comment: The EU's December 19 decision to
open negotiations with Turkey on two new policy chapters
appears to have calmed GOT officials infuriated by French
President Sarkozy's maneuvering to have the terms "accession"
and "membership" removed from the GAERC's December 10
statement. The "watered-down" final version of Sarkozy's
"Wise Men Committee" is also helping Turkish officials focus
on launching a wave of domestic reforms in 2008 that will
enable the Slovenian Presidency to open at least two
additional chapters. Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin's
recent statement that Parliament will take up amendment of
Penal Code Article 301 (which criminalizes insulting
"Turkishness") within two weeks is a positive sign. The pace
of reforms ultimately will be determined by resolution of the
current PKK crisis and the priorities PM Erdogan sets in the
new year. The GOT must carry its share of the EU accession
burden by launching the revitalized reform process Erdogan
promised after the July parliamentary election. End summary
and comment.

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Negotiations Opened on Two Chapters
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2. (SBU) Turkey's EU Secretariat Political Chief Cem
Kahyaoglu told us the EU's December 19 decision to open
negotiations on two new policy chapters -- Trans-European
Networks (chapter 21) and Consumer and Health Protection
(chapter 28) -- would help Turkey move beyond its frustration
with French efforts to thwart Turkey's full membership. It
would also help quell disappointment that the EU
provisionally has opened and closed only one chapter --
Science and Technology -- since negotiations began in 2005.
In the same period, by contrast, the EU opened and closed 14
chapters for candidate Croatia. Kahyaoglu is cautiously
optimistic that by continuing to open new chapters, the EU
will help alleviate Turkish doubts over the EU's sincerity
regarding Turkey's membership aspirations.

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Sarkozy's Maneuvering Infuriates Turkey
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3. (C) French President Sarkozy had "insulted" the GOT and
Turkish public by insisting the EU remove the terms
"accession" and "membership" from the December 10 General
Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) statement,
Kahyaoglu told us. The GOT responded in a December 14 press
statement: "The main element underlying our disappointment
is the efforts of one member state to erode the political and
legal standing of our EU membership process. It is
inevitable that such approaches and acts lacking in common
sense will have adverse repercussions on Turkey-EU relations,
as well as on our bilateral relations with the countries
concerned." MFA Council of Europe Head of Department Hasan
Ulusoy had hoped for a bolder statement. The generally-held
view in the MFA, he said, is that the French and German
governments' populist platforms are clouding their ability to
develop rational policies on EU enlargement.


4. (C) Sarkozy had also frustrated Turkey by trying to
include the topic of Europe's borders in the mandate of the
so-called "Wise Men Committee," according to Kahyaoglu.
Fortunately, the UK, Sweden, and others had pressured the
French to accept a watered-down version of the original
proposal. The GOT could live with the resulting "Reflection
Group," due to its more limited agenda of preparing reports
on issues such as energy, environment and terrorism. Both
Kahyaoglu and Ulusoy predicted the body would become
irrelevant within two or three years.

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Turkey Looks Ahead to 2008
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5. (C) The GOT has signaled its determination to move forward
with the accession process, Kahyaoglu believes, despite the

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mixed messages from Europe that drove Turkish public support
to drop to 49 percent from a high of 71 percent in 2004. FM
Babacan told press following the recent opening of new
chapters that despite "provocations," Turkey would not be
deterred from its goal of nothing less than full membership.
PM Erdogan had repeatedly announced AKP plans to launch a
campaign of constitutional and legal reform in 2008.


6. (C) The military's cross-border operations into northern
Iraq are likely to improve security in 2008, making the
climate ripe for AKP to implement many long-promised reforms,
Kahyaoglu said. Justice Minister Mehmet Ali Sahin had given
a positive signal when he told the press on December 26 that
his ministry would submit to the Cabinet an amended version
of controversial Penal Code Article 301 (criminalizing
insulting "Turkishness") within 15 days. Sahin told the
press that the amendment would require a prosecutor obtain
MOJ permission prior to opening an investigation under the
article and will replace "Turkishness" with "Turkish nation"
and "Republic" with "State of the Republic of Turkey."


7. (C) The upcoming Slovenian Presidency could also provide a
needed boost to Turkey's EU reform efforts, according to
European Commission officials. EC Political officer Sema
Kilicer told us the December signing of the Lisbon Treaty
will allow the Slovenian presidency to re-focus the EU's
attention on enlargement, and open at least two more chapters
during its term. Both Kilicer and Kahyaoglu told us the
French Presidency (July - December 2008) could paradoxically
speed the pace of negotiations so that it appears impartial.
They believe France could open as many as five new chapters,
including: Energy; Monetary Policy; Education and Culture;
Agriculture; and Institutions.

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WILSON