TURKEY: EU HARMONIZATION PROCESS OVERSHADOWED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002627

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: EU HARMONIZATION PROCESS OVERSHADOWED BY
TERROR ATTACKS

REF: A. ANKARA 2604

B. ANKARA 2517

C. ANKARA 2468

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for reasons 1.4(b)
,(d)

1.(C) Summary: Turkey expects a critical but balanced
progress report from the EU Commission on November 6, despite
set backs in the GOT's accession-related reform process
resulting from recent PKK terror attacks (ref A) and the
House Foreign Affairs Committee's (HFAC's) October 10
approval of the Armenian genocide resolution (AGR) (ref B).
A contact at Turkey's EU Secretariat said the flurry of
high-profile events has prevented the ruling Justice and
Development Party (AKP) from re-passing the Foundations Law
and amending Penal Code Article 301, two particularly
contentious issues. The GOT plans to move ahead with an
ambitious plan of legal reforms in 2008, according to our
contact, depending in part on how the PKK terror issue plays
out. A tough EU progress report could provide the necessary
spark to jump-start stalled political reforms. End summary.

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Events Overshadow EU-Related Reforms
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2.(C) Turkey's EU Secretariat Political Chief Cem Kahyaoglu
told us recently that PKK terrorist attacks and HFAC's
October 10 approval of the AGR have distracted the GOT from
EU accession reforms. Parliament could re-pass a new
Foundations Law "in 20 minutes" but had no time on its
agenda, according to Kahyaoglu. On a more positive note, he
said the elevation of Turkey's former EU coordinator Ali
Babacan to foreign minister, and a bureaucratic restructuring
that placed the EU Secretariat under MFA instead of the prime
ministry, had resulted in smoother coordination. Following
PM Erdogan's October 19 comment that changing "Turkishness"
to "Turkish nation" would help solve the 301 problem, FM
Babacan would now push for the law's amendment, Kahyaoglu
said. Just as the constitutional reform project dominated
AKP's agenda after the July 22 parliamentary elections, the
struggle against PKK terror could overshadow all other events
in the coming months, he cautioned.

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EU Commission Report Expected to be Critical, Balanced
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3.(C) Kahyaoglu said the EU Commission signaled in recent
meetings that its November 6 progress report would praise
Turkey for carrying out free and fair elections during a
turbulent year of rising nationalistic public sentiment. The
Secretariat expects the report to welcome Turkey's more

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representative parliament that now includes seven parties
(versus two in the previous government),including the
pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP). The Secretariat
also expects the report to highlight lack of progress on
Article 301, the Foundations Law, and the Ombudsman Law, and
criticize the numerous court cases against DTP members.
Though the report would not take up the Armenian genocide
controversy because it is not part of the Copenhagen
criteria, Kahyaoglu believes the issue will impede Turkey's
future progress if it is not resolved.

4.(C) Representatives from the EU Commission's Turkey office
confirmed the progress report would acknowledge the
successful elections and some technical progress, and would
detail lack of progress on long-standing issues, such as
Article 301 and the Foundations Law. It would also describe
several other human rights concerns, including an increase in
unrestrained and arbitrary use of force by law enforcement;
military statements that attempted to influence the outcome
of elections; the April raid of Nokta magazine by an
anti-terrorism unit following publication of an article
exploring ties between the military and secret criminal
groups; and an environment of intolerance that led to the
murder of three Christians in Malatya and the murder of
journalist Hrant Dink.

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Turkey's Ambitious 2008 Harmonization Plans
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5.(C) Kahyaoglu described the GOT's ambitious plans to enact
188 primary laws and approximately 400 secondary laws by the
end of 2008. The effort, spearheaded by FM Babacan, would
put Turkey in technical compliance with all EU requirements,
leaving only the admittedly difficult task of fully
implementing the laws. The Secretariat plans to work with
relevant government institutions to provide quarterly reports
to Babacan tracking progress.

6.(C) Kahyaoglu cautioned that the intensified struggles
against PKK terror could slow GOT plans to move ahead full
steam. In the longer term, the EU's attitude toward
enlargement will play a critical role in determining Turkey's
chances at accession. Referring to French President
Sarkozy's idea of a "Mediterranean Union", Kahyaoglu stressed
that "Turkey believes it has embarked on a path toward full
membership in the EU, not a second-tier grouping."

7.(C) Comment: Political reforms associated with EU
harmonization will continue to take a back seat to GOT
efforts to respond to recent PKK attacks. The AGR may also
distract Turkey from carrying out an aggressive reform agenda
in 2008. AKP, under continued EU pressure, is likely to push
through the Foundations law in early 2008. However, AKP's
conflicting statements regarding Article 301 (ref C) indicate
the government may use these distractions to put off amending
the controversial provision. A tough November progress
report could be the catalyst needed to re-energize the effort
to amend Article 301 and jump-start the overall reform
process. End comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON