TURKEY: PUBLIC CONFUSED ABOUT OCTOBER 21 REFERENDUM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002575

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PUBLIC CONFUSED ABOUT OCTOBER 21 REFERENDUM

REF: A. ANKARA 2470


B. ANKARA 2324

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, for Reasons 1.4 (b
,d)


1. (C) Summary and comment. Three days before Turks vote
October 21 on a package of constitutional amendments that
would shift Turkey to direct presidential elections, the
referendum process is in disarray. The package, which the
Justice and Development Party (AKP) pushed through parliament
last June, has become AKP's albatross. AKP dithered over
whether to cancel the referendum following Gul's election in
August and has failed to launch an effective education
campaign, leaving voters confused and uninformed. On October
17, the Supreme Election Board (SEB) narrowly turned down a
proposal to postpone the vote. Parliament approved October
16 AKP's last-minute measure to delete a reference in the
package to the "11th president" in order to eliminate
questions about Gul's status, following his election by
parliament as the 11th president, however the legal
complications continue. High profile AKP efforts aimed at a
comprehensive constitutional overhaul have overshadowed the
earlier package, turning it into a messy political footnote.
What started as an AKP tactic to showcase their democratic
credentials and get Gul elected has snowballed into an AKP
fumble. As a result, while the referendum is likely to pass,
it could further cloud the already controversial debate on
broader constitutional reform. End Summary and comment.

Confusion Reigns
--------------


2. (C) Three days out from the October 21 referendum, the
public is befuddled, and no wonder. Since AKP pushed through
the legislation during high-stakes election maneuvering this
June, the constitutional amendment package has become a
stumbling block that AKP has ignored at its peril. The
referendum -- providing for direct popular presidential
elections, reducing parliament's term from 5 years to 4 and
the president's term from 7 years to 5, and clarifying quorum
requirements -- has been eclipsed by heated debate over AKP's
proposed wholesale revision of Turkey's constitution. The
overlap has led to confusion, made worse by a weak effort to
educate the public. While in principle, parties across the
spectrum support the change to a popularly elected president,
the main opposition parties are seizing on AKP's bungling and
threatening legal challenges.


3. (U) On October 16, parliament passed eleventh-hour changes
to the amendment package aimed at eliminating language
stipulating Turkey's "11th president" would be directly
elected. Once Gul was elected the 11th president by
parliament in August, opposition and legal scholars
questioned his status if the referendum were to be approved
as originally worded.


4. (U) AKP's fix generated new controversy because it changed
the referendum language a month after voting had begun at
border polling stations. Republican People's Party (CHP)
leaders originally signaled support for removing the
problematic language, but reneged as legal arguments gained
traction. Vice Chairman Mustaf Ozyurek charged that changing
the text of the amendment package with voting already
underway at border gates was wrong and harmful. He proposed
cancelling the referendum, noting direct presidential
elections can be adopted as part of the forthcoming, broader
constitutional revision. Ozyurek urged voters not to go to
the ballot box, or of they do, to vote no. Democratic Left
Party (DSP) also voted against AKP's proposed amendment,
though the party in principle supports popular presidential
elections.


5. (SBU) Nationalist Action Party (MHP) also retracted
support for AKP's belated fix. While MHP voted with AKP to
delete the reference to the 11th president, party leaders
complained that the amendment package was hastily prepared
and passed. Deputy Group Chairman Mehmet Sandir said MHP
views the referendum as meaningless and is concerned about
the uncertainties it creates. MHP supports popular election
of the president, but prefers the change be considered after

ANKARA 00002575 002 OF 002


full public debate. The party is now urging the public not
to participate in the referendum or to vote no. Democratic
Society Party (DTP) MPs voted with the government. Mus
deputy Sirri Sakik said DTP is asking their supporters to
vote yes on the referendum.

No Postponement
--------------

6. (C) Following parliament's approval of the amendment, the
SEB met October 17 to consider postponing the referendum to
give more time to educate the public and to allow all voters,
including at border gates, to vote on the new language.
While SEB President Aydin acknowledged that there will be two
texts -- the original and the amended -- and that votes have
already been cast on one, the SEB decided to proceed with the
referendum on October 21, as scheduled. Legal scholars and
opposition members have warned that the referendum results
risk being challenged in the Constitutional Court and then
the European Court of Human Rights.


7. (C) AKP MP Metin Yilmaz admitted the party couldn't launch
an effective education campaign because the legal problems
had confused them too. He blamed CHP for distracting voters
by raising questions about Gul's status if the referendum
passes and blocking AKP's attempts to have the referendum
coincide with the July 22 general elections. Yilmaz
acknowledged the matter has become a "real scandal" and
created serious legal problems, but added that Turks want
direct presidential elections and are thus unlikely to
complain about the time and money wasted on the bungled
referendum process.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON