FALL-OUT FROM HFAC PASSAGE OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002538

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR EUR/SE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER ASEC TU US AM IZ
SUBJECT: FALL-OUT FROM HFAC PASSAGE OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE
RESOLUTION CONFLATED WITH PKK DEBATE

REF: A. ANKARA 2524

B. ANKARA 2522

C. ANKARA 2517 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Turkish government and public reaction to the
House Foreign Affairs Committee (HFAC) October 10 approval of
the Armenian genocide resolution (AGR) was fueled by harsh
statements from opposition political party leaders and some
media commentators, as well as strong remarks by the Prime
Minister. Meanwhile, a legislative motion requesting
parliamentary authorization for a cross-border operation into
Iraq to counter the PKK threat will be introduced into
parliament October 16. The two issues have become conflated
in the minds of many Turks, who see AGR as another slap in
the face and blame the U.S. for not taking action against PKK
safe havens in Iraq. Meanwhile, there were reports of cross
border shelling over the weekend, but in the vicinity of
Habur Gate activities remain normal with no signs of a
military buildup or preparations for an imminent cross-border
operation (CBO). END SUMMARY

Reaction to AGR Becomes More Vitriolic...
--------------


2. (SBU) Response to the HFAC's approval of an AGR (refs A-C)
became more negative over the weekend as opposition
politicians and some media commentators began to call for
retaliatory measures against U.S. interests in Turkey.
Republican People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal said
Turkey should shut down the U.S. air base at Incirlik, at
least temporarily, in reaction to the HFAC vote. He said
that failing to take retaliatory action would weaken the
position of those defending Turkish interests in the U.S. and
humiliate Turkey. Pointing to reported statements made by
several Members of Congress during the October 10 vote that
Turkish reaction would die down within a few days and that
retaliatory threats were just a bluff, some columnists called
for GOT officials to prove them wrong.

...As Does Anti-U.S. Rhetoric on the PKK Issue
-------------- -


3. (C) Senior government officials and politicians battled to
position themselves at the forefront of public anger against
the U.S. Nationalist Action Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet
Bahceli accused those - including PM Erdogan - who claim that
a cross-border operation into Iraq against PKK terrorists
would not be effective as being "in collusion" with the
terrorist group. Erdogan has sought to strengthen his hand
by lashing out against U.S. warnings about a CBO. On October
12, Erdogan said he is prepared for a rupture in relations
with the U.S. if his government launches an incursion into
northern Iraq, telling reporters, "If such an option is
chosen, whatever its price, it will be paid." Erdogan added,
"Did they (the U.S.) seek permission from anyone when they
came from a distance of 10,000 kilometers and hit Iraq? We
do not need anyone else's advice."


4. (SBU) In an October 14 interview, Chief of Defense Staff
GEN Yasar Buyukanit warned that ties with the U.S. will be
irrevocably damaged if the full House of Representatives
passes H.R. 106: "I can say this: If this measure, which has
been passed by the Committee, is then passed by the House of
Representatives, our military relationship with the U.S. will
never be the same again. We cannot explain this to the
Turkish people...In this regard, the U.S. shot its own foot."

GOT Readies Legislative Motion to Green Light CBO
-------------- --------------


5. (C) PM Erdogan will convene a cabinet meeting on October
15 during which a legislative motion approving in principle

ANKARA 00002538 002 OF 002


cross border operations against PKK terrorists in Iraq will
be introduced and opened for signature. Once approved by the
Council of Ministers, the measure will be sent to parliament
as early as October 16 for debate and approval later in the
week. The motion reportedly would provide the Prime Minister
authority to give a green light to military action in Iraq
and the authority would last for up to one year.

Press Reports of Cross Border Shelling
--------------


6. (C) Media reports noted that the Turkish General Staff
(TGS) posted a statement to its website acknowledging for the
first time that the Turkish military had shelled sites along
the Turkey-Iraq border on October 12. The statement claims
that PKK bases were the target of the shelling, which was
carried out in retaliation for terrorist attacks inside
Turkey. Despite the high level of rhetoric threatening a
possible CBO, there were no reports of unusual military
operations nor signs of an imminent CBO in the vicinity of
the Habur Gate border crossing and Silopi October 15.
Operations at Habur Gate are reportedly running normally,
although the press presence there has increased. Commercial
truck traffic on the Habur road was somewhat below normal
levels, with approximately 1,000 trucks crossing the
Turkish-Iraqi border in both directions in the 24-hour period
ending October 15. Meanwhile, PKK leader Murat Karayilan on
October 13 warned that any incursion by Turkish forces inside
Iraq would be met with fierce resistance. He claimed the PKK
would "make Turkey experience a Vietnam war."


7. (C) There were no public demonstrations in either Ankara
or Istanbul over the weekend nor on October 15 protesting
AGR. However, with the four-day holiday having just ended,
and wet, rainy weather predominating in Ankara, this is not
surprising. We anticipate the size and frequency of
demonstrations to increase in coming days.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON