TURKEY: WEEKEND AMBUSH BRINGS TEMPERATURE TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002500

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2017
TAGS: PTER PGOV ASEC PREL TU IZ
SUBJECT: TURKEY: WEEKEND AMBUSH BRINGS TEMPERATURE TO
BOILING POINT ON PKK

REF: A. ANKARA 2441


B. ANKARA 2440

Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney, reasons 1.4 (b),(d)


1. (C) Summary: A PKK ambush October 7 killed 13 Turkish
soldiers in southeastern Sirnak province,the biggest single
loss the military has incurred in years and the latest in a
string of terrorist incidents. A series of high level
meetings, including a PM-President-CHOD meeting, and the
counter-terrorism council chaired by the PM, are examining
options. The GOT spokesman made clear that words no longer
suffice. End summary.


2. (SBU) The October 7 PKK ambush which killed 13 Turkish
soldiers in Sirnak province, which borders Iraq, has again
riveted the nation's attention on the PKK. Major
international news outlets are quoting a PKK spokesperson as
claiming responsibility for the attack, but it does not yet
appear on the PKK website.


3. (SBU) After a relatively quiescent summer, attacks and
bombings have spiked in the past 10 days. In addition to the
October 7 ambush, these include:

--The September 29 attack on a minibus in Sirnak province
which killed 12 civilians;

--Twin bombings in Izmir's Buca distrcit on October 2,
killing one and injuring 11;

--A bomb in a garbage can near a fast ferry terminal in
Istanbul on October 8 that injured 4;

--The October 6 death of one soldier in eastern Van province
when PKK terrorists opened fire on a military headquarters;

--The October 8 death of two soldiers in Diyarbakir province
from an IED.


4. (SBU) PM Erdogan, President Gul and TGS chief Buyukanit
met October 8 for 75 minutes to discuss the situation.
Afterwards they released a statement expressing support for
the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) and focusing on their
determination to combat terrorism. A regularly scheduled GOT
cabinet meeting took place the same day, dominated by the
PKK. After the cabinet meeting, Deputy PM and GOT spokesman
Cemil Cicek stated that the GOT was weighing all possible
measures against the PKK, including the possibility of a
cross-border operation (CBO) into neighboring northern Iraq.
He stressed that the consequences of such a move should be
considered. "What is at issue here," Cicek said, "is how
much any action we decide to take would bring us closer to a
result." The counter-terrorism board, chaired by PM Erdogan
(these meetings would normally be chaired by Cicek),convened
at 10 am local October 9.


5. (SBU) The army, which had in May announced the creation of
three "temporary security zones" - limited areas which they
essentially cordoned off to deter PKK movement - on October 7
announced the creation of 27 new such security zones in the
southeast.


6. (SBU) The GOT cannot afford to be seen as inactive or weak
on this national priority issue. PM Erdogan told the press,
"We are going to evaluate the situation and take the
necessary meaures. The fight against terrorism will continue
with some different measures." President Gul, the
commander-in-chief of the TAF, condemned the killings and
lionized the TAF, noting that the soldiers killed in the
October 7 ambush were among those with whom he had broken
bread during his September trip to the SE. All parties have
condemned the killings, including the DTP, which for the
first time used the term "martyrs" to refer to the dead
soldiers.


7. (U) The massacre is the sole front page story in the

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newspapers, with pictures of the dead soldiers and their
grieving widows and children. Commentators blamed a
combination of the US (and, by association, the Iraqi Kurds);
the GOT for its "weak" policies; and the DTP for its failure
to denounce the PKK. The temperature in the media and in the
general public will spike further with the wave of funerals
that will take place around the country October 9 and 10.


8. (C) Comment: Turkey is the home of perfect storms. But
not all such storms are coincidental. This surge in PKK
violence seems carefully calculated and anything but
accidental. It comes two weeks after the Turks and Iraqis
concluded a counter-terrorism agreement (which nearly
foundered over the issue of hot pursuit - an issue over which
they agreed to disagree for now) and is designed to drive a
wedge into that relationship. It comes as PM Erdogan and
especially President Gul have used conciliatory, inclusive
language with respect to Turkey's ethnic groups - the Kurds
in particular - and have talked about reaching out to the
Iraqi Kurds. These attacks are designed to prevent any such
positive action from taking place. They seem aimed, too, at
preventing the DTP's inclusion in parliament from bearing any
positive fruit. Finally, coming on the eve of House Foreign
Affairs Committee consideration of the Armenian genocide
resolution, it adds even more fuel to the anti-Americanism
fire here. The fact that the GOT and TGS are carefully
weighing their options is a positive. However, GOT spokesman
Cicek said very clearly after the October 8 cabinet meeting,
"We have reached the point where words don't work anymore."
While Erdogan said he would announce a new strategy after
talking to President Bush, the Turks have reached the point
where they will take action they deem necessary, whatever
decision they feel they need to on their own.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON