Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA2492
2007-10-05 15:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
AGR: GOT SQUARELY FOCUSED ON OCTOBER 10
how-toVZCZCXRO8223 OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHAK #2492 2781558 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O 051558Z OCT 07 FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3953 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RHMFISS/EUCOM POLAD VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU PRIORITY RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// PRIORITY RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002492
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PINS AM TU
SUBJECT: AGR: GOT SQUARELY FOCUSED ON OCTOBER 10
Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 b, d
C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002492
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PINS AM TU
SUBJECT: AGR: GOT SQUARELY FOCUSED ON OCTOBER 10
Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 b, d
1. (C) SUMMARY. Senior MFA officials informed the
Ambassador that they view the October 10 mark-up on the
Armenian genocide resolution (AGR) in the House Foreign
Affairs Committee (HFAC) as critical. They are engaged at
the highest levels to prevent the resolution from passing out
of committee. They believe that the newly re-elected
government of Turkey will be under tremendous, inescapable
pressure from the public to react to the passage of this
resolution. The Ambassador emphasized Administration efforts
to forestall adoption of the resolution and appealed to MFA
to try to help us by blunting the sharply negative effect of
the Energy Ministry's recent announcement that it intends to
invest $3.5 billion to develop Iran's South Pars gas field.
Ambassador also stressed that it is not too late for the GOT
to influence the vote in a significant way through a
meaningful gesture to Armenia; if we dodge this bullet now,
the GOT must take steps quickly toward Armenia. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) Ambassador met October 5 with MFA U/S Apakan,
Director General for Americas Ocak, and Director General for
Security Affairs Guven to confer on the AGR. GOT officials
view the HFAC vote as critical and the last, best hope of
preventing the resolution's adoption. Apakan reported on GOT
efforts. PM Erdogan will speak by phone to President Bush on
October 5. The GOT is also seeking former President
Clinton's intervention with Speaker Pelosi. FM Babacan is
sending letters to Secretary Rice, Speaker Pelosi, Chairman
Lantos, and all members of the HFAC, and a delegation of
Turkish parliamentarians will be in Washington shortly for
consultations. In addition, PM Erdogan has spoken to Israeli
President Peres; Turkish Parliament Speaker Toptan sent a
letter to Speaker Pelosi; President Gul wrote to President
Bush, as did Defense Minister Gonul to Secretary Gates; and
Apakan expects TGS Chief Buyukanit to do the same to his
Joint Chiefs counterpart, Admiral Mullen.
3. (C) Apakan urged President Bush's personal involvement
now, before this bill goes to the floor. He stressed that
Turkey's energy relations with Iran or contact with Syria
should not be used as a pretext for moving this resolution
forward. Apakan said that Turks will view passage of this
resolution as new evidence of the failure of their
relationship with the West. He claimed that the resolution
plays into the hands of those trying to upset U.S.-Turkey
relations and threatens Turkey's entire western orientation.
DG Ocak said he is worried that Speaker Pelosi does not
understand that the GOT will have to react. Turkey, he said,
is now governed by an administration that, despite its
electoral success, is more vulnerable to public pressure than
any of its predecessors. Guven cited the strong, negative
reaction to Turkey's counter-terrorism agreement with Iraq as
evidence that the media is ready to pounce.
4. (C) Ambassador reviewed the U.S. strategy and efforts on
the AGR. HFAC is the focus. He noted the importance of
Chairman Lantos, who has enormous credibility on this issue.
However, the preliminary gas deals with Iran and the
announcement by Energy Minister Guler that Turkey will sign
an agreement this month to invest $3.5 billion to develop
Iran's South Pars field has the potential to add many votes
for the resolution and guarantee its passage. Turkey should
find a way immediately to distance itself from this project
and re-state its strong support for UNSC and P5 efforts to
persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
5. (C) Apakan said that FM Babacan told Armenian FM Oskanian
in New York that if the resolution passes, talks between the
two countries will be impossible. The GOT believes Yerevan
is playing a key role in advancing AGR. Adoption will be a
lose-lose for Turkey and Armenia. Ambassador understood that
the scheduled mark-up in committee makes a meaningful gesture
to Armenia harder, but said it is not too late. If the AGR
does not get through the committee, Turkey should return to
its dialogue with Armenia in an urgent and ambitious way.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2017
TAGS: PREL PINS AM TU
SUBJECT: AGR: GOT SQUARELY FOCUSED ON OCTOBER 10
Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 b, d
1. (C) SUMMARY. Senior MFA officials informed the
Ambassador that they view the October 10 mark-up on the
Armenian genocide resolution (AGR) in the House Foreign
Affairs Committee (HFAC) as critical. They are engaged at
the highest levels to prevent the resolution from passing out
of committee. They believe that the newly re-elected
government of Turkey will be under tremendous, inescapable
pressure from the public to react to the passage of this
resolution. The Ambassador emphasized Administration efforts
to forestall adoption of the resolution and appealed to MFA
to try to help us by blunting the sharply negative effect of
the Energy Ministry's recent announcement that it intends to
invest $3.5 billion to develop Iran's South Pars gas field.
Ambassador also stressed that it is not too late for the GOT
to influence the vote in a significant way through a
meaningful gesture to Armenia; if we dodge this bullet now,
the GOT must take steps quickly toward Armenia. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) Ambassador met October 5 with MFA U/S Apakan,
Director General for Americas Ocak, and Director General for
Security Affairs Guven to confer on the AGR. GOT officials
view the HFAC vote as critical and the last, best hope of
preventing the resolution's adoption. Apakan reported on GOT
efforts. PM Erdogan will speak by phone to President Bush on
October 5. The GOT is also seeking former President
Clinton's intervention with Speaker Pelosi. FM Babacan is
sending letters to Secretary Rice, Speaker Pelosi, Chairman
Lantos, and all members of the HFAC, and a delegation of
Turkish parliamentarians will be in Washington shortly for
consultations. In addition, PM Erdogan has spoken to Israeli
President Peres; Turkish Parliament Speaker Toptan sent a
letter to Speaker Pelosi; President Gul wrote to President
Bush, as did Defense Minister Gonul to Secretary Gates; and
Apakan expects TGS Chief Buyukanit to do the same to his
Joint Chiefs counterpart, Admiral Mullen.
3. (C) Apakan urged President Bush's personal involvement
now, before this bill goes to the floor. He stressed that
Turkey's energy relations with Iran or contact with Syria
should not be used as a pretext for moving this resolution
forward. Apakan said that Turks will view passage of this
resolution as new evidence of the failure of their
relationship with the West. He claimed that the resolution
plays into the hands of those trying to upset U.S.-Turkey
relations and threatens Turkey's entire western orientation.
DG Ocak said he is worried that Speaker Pelosi does not
understand that the GOT will have to react. Turkey, he said,
is now governed by an administration that, despite its
electoral success, is more vulnerable to public pressure than
any of its predecessors. Guven cited the strong, negative
reaction to Turkey's counter-terrorism agreement with Iraq as
evidence that the media is ready to pounce.
4. (C) Ambassador reviewed the U.S. strategy and efforts on
the AGR. HFAC is the focus. He noted the importance of
Chairman Lantos, who has enormous credibility on this issue.
However, the preliminary gas deals with Iran and the
announcement by Energy Minister Guler that Turkey will sign
an agreement this month to invest $3.5 billion to develop
Iran's South Pars field has the potential to add many votes
for the resolution and guarantee its passage. Turkey should
find a way immediately to distance itself from this project
and re-state its strong support for UNSC and P5 efforts to
persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program.
5. (C) Apakan said that FM Babacan told Armenian FM Oskanian
in New York that if the resolution passes, talks between the
two countries will be impossible. The GOT believes Yerevan
is playing a key role in advancing AGR. Adoption will be a
lose-lose for Turkey and Armenia. Ambassador understood that
the scheduled mark-up in committee makes a meaningful gesture
to Armenia harder, but said it is not too late. If the AGR
does not get through the committee, Turkey should return to
its dialogue with Armenia in an urgent and ambitious way.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON