TURKEY'S OCTOBER 21 CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002470

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S OCTOBER 21 CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
REFERENDUM MUDDIES THE PRESIDENTIAL WATERS

REF: ANKARA 2414

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4(b),(d)


1. (C) Summary. Turks go to the polls again October 21 to
vote on a constitutional amendment package primarily aimed at
allowing Turkey's president to be elected directly by the
people rather than parliament. The package, which parliament
approved in June over former President Sezer's veto, was a
tactic to overcome opposition efforts to thwart the Justice
and Development Party's (AKP) plan to elect Abdullah Gul as
Turkey's 11th president. While the subsequent general
election returned AKP to power and brought Gul to the
presidency, the amendment package rolled on toward its
referendum date. AKP opponents see the vote as another
opportunity to undermine AKP and Gul, and are stirring up
confusion over what the measure's approval will mean for
Gul's presidency. AKP leaders will likely find a
work-around, but their failure to resolve the issue sooner
opens the way for continued political uncertainty and
tension. End summary.


2. (C) When they head to the polls on October 21, voters are
expected to approve a constitutional amendment package that
would authorize direct presidential elections, allow their
president to serve two terms, cut the president's term from
seven to five years and parliament's term from five to four
years, and clarify quoroum requirements. In the spring, with
Gul's presidential candidacy under attack, AKP pushed the
package through in June, overcoming former President Sezer's
veto and forcing him to submit the measure to a referendum.


3. (C) The package includes the specific language that
"Turkey's 11th president shall be elected by the people", a
provision AKP is now tripping over following Gul's recent
election by parliament as 11th president. AKP leaders failed
to remedy the situation before the referendum process began
and are now treating the language as a technicality with no
impact on Gul's current seven year term. They contend the
change, if passed, will apply to Gul's successor. Opponents
claim Gul will need to seek re-election through a direct vote
or risk tainting his right to the office. Efforts to amend
the problematic language now, after voting has begun at
border polling stations, run the risk of invalidating
referendum results.


4. (C) National Action Party (MHP) MP Faruk Bal blames AKP
"incompetence" for turning the referendum into a "chaotic
situation". AKP prepared the amendment package without
consulting other parties or building consensus, essentially
imposing the changes, he charged. Bal maintains the
reference to electing the "11th" president cannot be
corrected procedurally, an approach some advocate. "This
dispute will be debated extensively," he said, predicting
Gul's presidency will be irreparably weakened. Republican
People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal called for the
reference to the 11th president to be revised before the
referendum to avoid a crisis developing. Baykal,
uncharacteristically, pledged CHP support to AKP to "correct
the mistake". Democratic Left Party (DSP) leader Zeki Sezer
said the 11th president will be elected by the people if the
referendum is approved, adding that DSP will nominate a
candidate to run in the direct elections that will follow.


5. (C) Burhan Kuzu, AKP Chair of parliament's Constitutional
Committee, explained that AKP had tried to smooth this
wrinkle by pulling the referendum date forward to coincide
with the July 22 general election. The effort failed,
leaving AKP "stuck" with a post-election referendum date.
"Parliament's first duty after the elections was to elect the
president, so we went ahead and elected Gul," Kuzu said,
rather than waiting until after the referendum. Kuzu views
the reference to the 11th president as part of a "provisional
article" that can now be ignored because its goal was
achieved by Gul's election. He stated firmly that there
won't be a new presidential election after the October 21
vote. Even if the Supreme Election Board (SEB) decides
otherwise, Gul is ready to stand again, he added. "The 12th
president will be elected by the people," he stated. The SEB
has said it will make a ruling based on the referendum
results; some commentators are speculating that AKP is
relying on the SEB to settle the issue following the vote.
CHP's Baykal has already challenged the SEB's authority to

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make such a decision.


6. (C) Adding to the confusion is AKP's current effort to
more comprehensively overhaul Turkey's constitution (reftel),
a project initiated after AKP's unexpectedly strong showing
in the July election. Ergun Ozbudun, principal drafter of
the proposal now awaiting PM Erdogan's approval, said the
October 21 referendum won't interfere with the broader
amendment project. "If there had been time, AKP might have
called it off," Ozbudun commented, "but we drafted the
proposal to be consistent with the referendum's expected
outcome." Ozbudun, who prefers a parliamentary system over a
presidential system for Turkey, said his drafting committee
allowed for popular presidential elections but reduced the
president to a largely symbolic figure -- a concept AKPers
have previewed with us for months. The draft redistributes
the president's powers to the prime minister, the judiciary
and other executive bodies. Kuzu separately acknowledged a
redundancy; if the broader constitutional reform is submitted
to referendum, the same amendments will be approved for a
second time.


7. (U) AKP launched its lobbying effort this week, with PM
Erdogan urging Turks to vote "yes" on October 21 - a vote he
maintains will not affect President Gul's status or term.
"With these changes, the public will elect the 12th president
and future presidents," Erdogan told the press. Parliament
announced an 18-day recess starting October 4 to allow MPs to
meet with constituents about the amendments. An official
campaign period will run from October 14 until 6 pm on
October 20, including speeches by President Gul and party
leaders on public television.


8. (C) Comment. AKP's opponents have seized on this glitch
as another opportunity to try to undermine Gul and Erdogan.
Even within AKP there is confusion about whether Gul's term
will be five or seven years, whether he can run for a second
term and whether a direct election should be held this year,
assuming the referendum is approved. After Turkey's
through-the-looking-glass summer, another presidential
election -- this time by the people -- cannot be ruled out.
AKP may ultimately deflect such tactical parries, but the
heated debates over the broader constitutional reform
proposal and the referendum's impact on Gul's mandate are
stoking the tension and uncertainty most Turks are anxious to
put behind them. End comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
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WILSON