Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA2192
2007-08-24 14:08:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
KRG LOOKING FOR DIALOGUE WITH GOT
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002192
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IZ TU
SUBJECT: KRG LOOKING FOR DIALOGUE WITH GOT
REF: A. ANKARA 1985
B. ANKARA 1959
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002192
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IZ TU
SUBJECT: KRG LOOKING FOR DIALOGUE WITH GOT
REF: A. ANKARA 1985
B. ANKARA 1959
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) wants
to establish a senior-level dialogue with the GOT, according
to Safeen Dizayee, foreign policy advisor to KRG President
Massoud Barzani. Iraqi Kurds are encouraged by a perceived
slight increase in GOT flexibility to engage directly with
the KRG, but the Turks' precondition continues to be that the
KRG act against the PKK in northern Iraq. The KRG worries
that military action against the PKK could potentially
destabilize Iraq's entire Kurdish region. Dizayee conceded
privately that holding a referendum on Kirkuk this year will
be nearly impossible, but said KRG officials are pressing for
a date certain before agreeing publicly to a postponement.
END SUMMARY
KRG-GOT DIALOGUE
--------------
2. (C) Safeen Dizayee met with us during one of his regular
visits to Ankara the week of August 20. On the GOT side, he
met with PM/FM Foreign Policy Advisor Ahmet Davutoglu, GOT
Iraq coordinator Amb. Oguz Celikkol, and Turkish National
Intelligence Chief Emre Taner. Dizayee underscored the KRG's
goal to establish senior-level dialogue with the GOT and
spoke of reviving the February effort to schedule a meeting
between KRG PM Nechirvan Barzani and FM Gul.
3. (C) Dizayee said he sensed increased willingness among GOT
officials to engage directly with the KRG, though they
continue to tell him they first need clear signals from the
KRG that it is serious about countering the PKK threat. He
understands Turkey's political situation in Turkey and AKP's
need for political cover to move towards dialogue and assuage
the Turkish military's concerns. At the same time, Dizayee
noted that simply sitting down and putting all issues on the
table could go far in helping establish common ground between
the KRG and GOT.
4. (C) Per Dizayee, the KRG still does not believe that
military action against the PKK -- either by Turkey or by KRG
peshmerga -- would put an end to the PKK threat. The
military option has been tried previously and failed, he
said, adding that attempting to take on PKK forces in
difficult terrain risks "creating another Tora Bora."
Dizayee claimed the PKK currently provides an effective
buffer against Al-Qaeda Iraq (AQI) in northern Iraq; they
have shown no interest in associating with AQI, but if
attacked, could change tactics. The KRG does not want to
open another front against terror in the Kurdish region right
now.
FUTURE STATUS OF KIRKUK
--------------
5. (C) Dizayee said KRG officials admit privately that
holding a referendum on the status of Kirkuk will be
impossible because of the failure of GOI officials to make
adequate and timely preparations (normalization, a census,
etc.). However, absent a future target date for the
referendum, Iraqi Kurdish politicians will continue to find
it very difficult to resist the people's expectations and
agree to a postponement. Dizayee noted KRG discomfort with
the recent "piling on" of international community actors,
voicing support for the International Crisis Group's call for
a UN-brokered agreement to create a "special status" for
Kirkuk. Dizayee argued that denying the Kurdish people's
constitutional right to a referendum would invalidate the
entire constitutional process.
IRAQ'S POLITICAL FUTURE
--------------
ANKARA 00002192 002 OF 002
6. (C) While PM Maliki seems willing to make some changes
that his coalition partners demand in order for his
government to remain in power, it is not yet clear if Maliki
will give in to demands by VP Hashimi or if Hashimi will be
able to bring Tawafuq back into the coalition. If not,
Dizayee suggested that Maliki and his coalition partners
move on to other Sunni groups (nfi). Dizayee voiced special
disdain for the role being played by former PM Allawi, saying
his recent public criticism of Maliki was disingenuous and
that he was working against the unity of Iraq.
7. (C) COMMENT: Turkish officials continue to view the KRG as
part of the PKK problem, not part of the solution. The
formation of a new AKP-led government and the likely election
of FM Abdullah Gul as president provide an opportunity to
begin to transition to a new policy. The first step in that
process will be for both sides to initiate a dialogue.
Dizayee, when in Ankara, talks to the right people and
carries a message of conciliation, but KRG leader Massoud
Barzani's provocative, critical remarks about Turkey's
Kurdish issue, Iraq, and PKK policies speak more loudly to
the Turks than Dizayee. Still, if there is good-will and
restraint on both sides, a window for possible dialogue may
be about to open.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER IZ TU
SUBJECT: KRG LOOKING FOR DIALOGUE WITH GOT
REF: A. ANKARA 1985
B. ANKARA 1959
Classified By: Political Counselor Janice Weiner for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)
1. (C) SUMMARY: The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) wants
to establish a senior-level dialogue with the GOT, according
to Safeen Dizayee, foreign policy advisor to KRG President
Massoud Barzani. Iraqi Kurds are encouraged by a perceived
slight increase in GOT flexibility to engage directly with
the KRG, but the Turks' precondition continues to be that the
KRG act against the PKK in northern Iraq. The KRG worries
that military action against the PKK could potentially
destabilize Iraq's entire Kurdish region. Dizayee conceded
privately that holding a referendum on Kirkuk this year will
be nearly impossible, but said KRG officials are pressing for
a date certain before agreeing publicly to a postponement.
END SUMMARY
KRG-GOT DIALOGUE
--------------
2. (C) Safeen Dizayee met with us during one of his regular
visits to Ankara the week of August 20. On the GOT side, he
met with PM/FM Foreign Policy Advisor Ahmet Davutoglu, GOT
Iraq coordinator Amb. Oguz Celikkol, and Turkish National
Intelligence Chief Emre Taner. Dizayee underscored the KRG's
goal to establish senior-level dialogue with the GOT and
spoke of reviving the February effort to schedule a meeting
between KRG PM Nechirvan Barzani and FM Gul.
3. (C) Dizayee said he sensed increased willingness among GOT
officials to engage directly with the KRG, though they
continue to tell him they first need clear signals from the
KRG that it is serious about countering the PKK threat. He
understands Turkey's political situation in Turkey and AKP's
need for political cover to move towards dialogue and assuage
the Turkish military's concerns. At the same time, Dizayee
noted that simply sitting down and putting all issues on the
table could go far in helping establish common ground between
the KRG and GOT.
4. (C) Per Dizayee, the KRG still does not believe that
military action against the PKK -- either by Turkey or by KRG
peshmerga -- would put an end to the PKK threat. The
military option has been tried previously and failed, he
said, adding that attempting to take on PKK forces in
difficult terrain risks "creating another Tora Bora."
Dizayee claimed the PKK currently provides an effective
buffer against Al-Qaeda Iraq (AQI) in northern Iraq; they
have shown no interest in associating with AQI, but if
attacked, could change tactics. The KRG does not want to
open another front against terror in the Kurdish region right
now.
FUTURE STATUS OF KIRKUK
--------------
5. (C) Dizayee said KRG officials admit privately that
holding a referendum on the status of Kirkuk will be
impossible because of the failure of GOI officials to make
adequate and timely preparations (normalization, a census,
etc.). However, absent a future target date for the
referendum, Iraqi Kurdish politicians will continue to find
it very difficult to resist the people's expectations and
agree to a postponement. Dizayee noted KRG discomfort with
the recent "piling on" of international community actors,
voicing support for the International Crisis Group's call for
a UN-brokered agreement to create a "special status" for
Kirkuk. Dizayee argued that denying the Kurdish people's
constitutional right to a referendum would invalidate the
entire constitutional process.
IRAQ'S POLITICAL FUTURE
--------------
ANKARA 00002192 002 OF 002
6. (C) While PM Maliki seems willing to make some changes
that his coalition partners demand in order for his
government to remain in power, it is not yet clear if Maliki
will give in to demands by VP Hashimi or if Hashimi will be
able to bring Tawafuq back into the coalition. If not,
Dizayee suggested that Maliki and his coalition partners
move on to other Sunni groups (nfi). Dizayee voiced special
disdain for the role being played by former PM Allawi, saying
his recent public criticism of Maliki was disingenuous and
that he was working against the unity of Iraq.
7. (C) COMMENT: Turkish officials continue to view the KRG as
part of the PKK problem, not part of the solution. The
formation of a new AKP-led government and the likely election
of FM Abdullah Gul as president provide an opportunity to
begin to transition to a new policy. The first step in that
process will be for both sides to initiate a dialogue.
Dizayee, when in Ankara, talks to the right people and
carries a message of conciliation, but KRG leader Massoud
Barzani's provocative, critical remarks about Turkey's
Kurdish issue, Iraq, and PKK policies speak more loudly to
the Turks than Dizayee. Still, if there is good-will and
restraint on both sides, a window for possible dialogue may
be about to open.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
WILSON