MINISTER BABACAN SEES NEW, UNCERTAIN ERA IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000021

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

TREASURY FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS - JROSE, MNUGENT

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2017
TAGS: ECIN PREL EUN
SUBJECT: MINISTER BABACAN SEES NEW, UNCERTAIN ERA IN
TURKEY-EU RELATIONS

REF: A. ANKARA 6712


B. ANKARA 6707

Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4(b) and (d).



1. (C) Summary: EU negotiator Ali Babacan told the Ambassador
December 22 that Turkey's relations with the EU have entered
a new, uncertain era, with progress depending more on
political considerations than technical progress in meeting
the EU acquis. Without clear targets and timelines to open
and close chapters, Babacan fears it will be harder to
motivate Turkish bureaucrats and parliamentarians, not to
mention public opinion, to undertake reforms. Turkish
leaders will have to justify reforms by saying they are good
for Turkey rather than by arguing that the EU requires a
particular reform. On Cyprus, Babacan had difficulty seeing
what incentive the Greek Cypriots had in the near future to
reach a settlement. End Summary.

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Concerns About EU Decisions
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2. (C) Babacan thanked the Ambassador for U.S. efforts on
Turkey,s EU accession bid. He took a measured but fairly
negative view of the EU actions. He said the EU Council's
decision was a bad outcome, since the Commission's decision
was merely a compromise designed to placate one or two
countries. Babacan described his efforts to reach out to
member countries in recent months. He said he has visited
twenty countries, meeting not only with government officials,
but with press, parliaments, opposition leaders, and NGOs. He
found many of his interlocutors supportive, particularly in
the UK, Italy, Spain and many of the new member states. EU
negotiators from the new member states told him that in
their accession efforts they spent 80% of their time on
domestic matters, 10% working with Brussels and 10% with
member states. Babacan has come to realize that in Turkey's
case he will need to spend far more of his time with member
states because of the controversy surrounding Turkey's
accession.

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New, More Politicized Era in Turkey-EU Relations
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3. (C) Babacan is convinced the remainder of Turkey's EU
accession process will be far more political than technical.
Despite the fact that the screening process went well,
chapter openings will no longer be decided based on technical
criteria. A perfect example was the Education Chapter: the
Commission was ready to open it in June but for political
reasons France has blocked the opening since that time.
Likewise, at the recent COREPER meeting, the Presidency
suggested that four chapters could be opened and letters
could be written about three more laying out benchmarks
required prior to opening. Instead, the outcome was to open
a single chapter. Babacan claimed that if the process were
based only on technical criteria, Turkey could reach an
understanding (if not final agreement with all "homework"
completed) within two to three years. Instead it will take
far longer, with each chapter opening politicized.


4. (C) Babacan noted Turkish leaders' restraint in reacting
to this situation, resisting an emotional response that would
have burned bridges. The domestic reality, however, is that
Turkish leaders are faced with a new domestic situation in
which it will be far more difficult to motivate the
bureaucracy, parliament and public opinion to take action on
EU reforms. Babacan said the argument that Turkey needs to
take a particular step because the EU requires it will no
longer be compelling. Instead, Turkey will have to justify
reforms on the grounds that they are good for Turkey.
Without clear targets or deadlines, it will be far harder to
motivate Turks.


5. (C) Babacan pointed out that within a few years, Turkey
will have a larger population than any other EU country, and
will be the fifth or sixth largest economy in the EU. Given
its size, Babacan believes that Turkey's accession is more
comparable to Britain's or Spain's than to smaller new
members. The EU will need to decide if it wants to be a
bigger, more inclusive entity with Turkey, or a more
exclusive and smaller club. As he has before, Babacan
stressed that this decision has global implications, with

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countries throughout the Muslim world watching to see how the
EU treats Muslim Turkey. He said even Australian officials
have told him they support Turkey's EU accession process
because of its implications for Indonesian relations with the
West.

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How to Incentivize the Greek Cypriots
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6. (C) In his outreach to member states, Babacan said he
concentrates on explaining the Turkish perspective on Cyprus
which he found to be poorly understood. Turkey had signed on
to the Additional Protocol in 2004 with the understanding
that the economic isolation of the Turkish Cypriots would be
lifted. Although EU countries say there was no
conditionality, the EU countries made public statements about
the commitments to Turkey. For this reason, the recent
decision to sanction Turkey over the Additional Protocol
issue was unfair.


7. (C) Saying he was spending 50% of his time on Cyprus,
Babacan said the more he looked at the issue, the more he
realized the Greek Cypriots don't want a solution in the near
future. With a solution, the Greek Cypriots would have to
share EU and state funding with the north. Babacan wondered
what incentive there could be to motivate the Greek Cypriots
to work towards a solution. If the Greek Cypriots want a
bonus at each stage of the negotiation, it won't work and
Turkey cannot accept it. Babacan held out some hope that
the new UN SecGen would engage positively on Cyprus. He said
he and Prime Minister Erdogan had met SG Ban on their recent
trip to New York and found him surprisingly knowledgeable
about -- and interested in -- the Cyprus issue.


8. (C) The Ambassador said the Greek Cypriots will find
themselves pressed by other EU countries. Turkey should
cultivate allies in the EU and move forward on political and
economic reforms, thereby demonstrating both that Turkey is
committed to EU accession and that Turkey wants to become a
country applying European norms and standards. In this way,
the Cyprus issue will become less important. The Ambassador
recognized that pressing ahead will be politically difficult
for Turkey, particularly in an election year, but hoped
Turkish leaders would do so any way.

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