Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA2072
2007-08-14 09:28:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:
TURKEY: FM GUL LINING UP AS SOLE AKP PRESIDENTIAL
how-toVZCZCXRO9472 PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR DE RUEHAK #2072/01 2260928 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 140928Z AUG 07 FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3370 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC//J-3/J-5// RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RUEUITH/ODC ANKARA TU//TCH// RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC RUEUITH/TLO ANKARA TU RUEHAK/USDAO ANKARA TU
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002072
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: FM GUL LINING UP AS SOLE AKP PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE
REF: ANKARA 2036
Classified By: A/POLITICAL COUNSELOR KELLY DEGNAN for reasons 1.4(b),(
d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002072
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: FM GUL LINING UP AS SOLE AKP PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE
REF: ANKARA 2036
Classified By: A/POLITICAL COUNSELOR KELLY DEGNAN for reasons 1.4(b),(
d)
1. (C) Summary. FM Abdullah Gul will lobby opposition party
leaders today before making what most expect will be a formal
announcement of his presidential candidacy. At an August 13
executive board meeting, the ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP) apparently decided to back Gul as the party's
sole candidate, despite calls for a less contentious
approach. Grass-roots and internal party pressure to support
Gul after AKP's strong win in recent general elections
brought AKP to this point; withdrawing Gul from the race
would be seen as a defeat for democracy. AKP leaders are
gambling that secularists, including the military, will
eventually accept Gul and his headscarf-wearing wife as the
people's choice. End Summary.
2. (C) Gul, who has not formally announced his candidacy, is
expected to do so after meeting with opposition leaders
today. Senior party leaders apparently agreed to run Gul as
AKP's sole candidate at an August 13 Central Administrative
Board meeting. Grass-roots support for Gul's presidency
remains high, buoyed by AKP's strong showing in the July 22
elections, which many interpreted as a victory for democracy
against inappropriate interference by the military. For
them, a Gul presidency rights the wrong committed when his
candidacy was derailed in May and offers an historic chance
to banish longstanding taboos, such as a headscarf-wearing
First Lady. Given AKP's increased mandate, Gul supporters
are portraying him as the "consensus" candidate.
3. (SBU) Virtually all of the opposition parties have opposed
Gul's candidacy, urging AKP to put forward a consensus
candidate or a list of several candidates. Republican
People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal has steadfastly
rejected Gul as an ideologue who does not embody the
Republic's secularist principles. CHP Vice Chair Onur Oymen
reportedly said Gul's candidacy would not be good for the
country, adding that AKP will be responsible for a new
crisis. Nationalist Action Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet
Bahceli has also warned that continued confrontational
policies by AKP will provoke an unavoidable crisis in Turkey.
The 13-MP Democratic Left Party (DSP) and pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society Party (DTP) leaders reportedly will
announce their position on Gul's candidacy after internal
meetings.
4. (SBU) The military has not directly commented, although
former Chief of Defense (CHOD) retired General Ozkok told the
press on August 13 that it was important to reach a
consensus. The president represents all of Turkey to the
world, he explained, adding it would be "wrong" to portray a
"politicized" image by having a First Lady who wears an
Islamic headscarf. Ozkok made clear that he and current CHOD
General Buyukanit were in synch on this.
5. (C) CHP, which will convene its Central Administrative
Board today, has not made clear whether its MPs will attend
the voting sessions, which are scheduled for August 20, 24
and 28. MHP officials reiterated their plan to attend; their
presence, combined with AKP's 340 seats, assures the required
367 quorum will be present. MHP also intends to introduce a
presidential candidate, in part to justify MHP deputies'
presence at the vote. AKP may not muster the necessary 367
votes needed to elect Gul in the first two rounds, but should
have no difficulty tallying the 276 votes required on the
third round, when an absolute majority is needed.
6. (C) Comment. AKP leadership appears willing to risk
possible blowback from a jittery global financial market and
secular institutions that were looking for a compromise
solution to the tension surrounding Gul's candidacy. While
the military may not respond overtly, it will likely monitor
the new government and president closely and capitalize on
any missteps. By taking the confrontational road, AKP and
Gul can expect a harder job ahead of building cooperation on
the policy front and trust that they are working for all
Turks. End comment.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
ANKARA 00002072 002 OF 002
MCELDOWNEY
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: FM GUL LINING UP AS SOLE AKP PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE
REF: ANKARA 2036
Classified By: A/POLITICAL COUNSELOR KELLY DEGNAN for reasons 1.4(b),(
d)
1. (C) Summary. FM Abdullah Gul will lobby opposition party
leaders today before making what most expect will be a formal
announcement of his presidential candidacy. At an August 13
executive board meeting, the ruling Justice and Development
Party (AKP) apparently decided to back Gul as the party's
sole candidate, despite calls for a less contentious
approach. Grass-roots and internal party pressure to support
Gul after AKP's strong win in recent general elections
brought AKP to this point; withdrawing Gul from the race
would be seen as a defeat for democracy. AKP leaders are
gambling that secularists, including the military, will
eventually accept Gul and his headscarf-wearing wife as the
people's choice. End Summary.
2. (C) Gul, who has not formally announced his candidacy, is
expected to do so after meeting with opposition leaders
today. Senior party leaders apparently agreed to run Gul as
AKP's sole candidate at an August 13 Central Administrative
Board meeting. Grass-roots support for Gul's presidency
remains high, buoyed by AKP's strong showing in the July 22
elections, which many interpreted as a victory for democracy
against inappropriate interference by the military. For
them, a Gul presidency rights the wrong committed when his
candidacy was derailed in May and offers an historic chance
to banish longstanding taboos, such as a headscarf-wearing
First Lady. Given AKP's increased mandate, Gul supporters
are portraying him as the "consensus" candidate.
3. (SBU) Virtually all of the opposition parties have opposed
Gul's candidacy, urging AKP to put forward a consensus
candidate or a list of several candidates. Republican
People's Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal has steadfastly
rejected Gul as an ideologue who does not embody the
Republic's secularist principles. CHP Vice Chair Onur Oymen
reportedly said Gul's candidacy would not be good for the
country, adding that AKP will be responsible for a new
crisis. Nationalist Action Party (MHP) Chairman Devlet
Bahceli has also warned that continued confrontational
policies by AKP will provoke an unavoidable crisis in Turkey.
The 13-MP Democratic Left Party (DSP) and pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society Party (DTP) leaders reportedly will
announce their position on Gul's candidacy after internal
meetings.
4. (SBU) The military has not directly commented, although
former Chief of Defense (CHOD) retired General Ozkok told the
press on August 13 that it was important to reach a
consensus. The president represents all of Turkey to the
world, he explained, adding it would be "wrong" to portray a
"politicized" image by having a First Lady who wears an
Islamic headscarf. Ozkok made clear that he and current CHOD
General Buyukanit were in synch on this.
5. (C) CHP, which will convene its Central Administrative
Board today, has not made clear whether its MPs will attend
the voting sessions, which are scheduled for August 20, 24
and 28. MHP officials reiterated their plan to attend; their
presence, combined with AKP's 340 seats, assures the required
367 quorum will be present. MHP also intends to introduce a
presidential candidate, in part to justify MHP deputies'
presence at the vote. AKP may not muster the necessary 367
votes needed to elect Gul in the first two rounds, but should
have no difficulty tallying the 276 votes required on the
third round, when an absolute majority is needed.
6. (C) Comment. AKP leadership appears willing to risk
possible blowback from a jittery global financial market and
secular institutions that were looking for a compromise
solution to the tension surrounding Gul's candidacy. While
the military may not respond overtly, it will likely monitor
the new government and president closely and capitalize on
any missteps. By taking the confrontational road, AKP and
Gul can expect a harder job ahead of building cooperation on
the policy front and trust that they are working for all
Turks. End comment.
Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/
ANKARA 00002072 002 OF 002
MCELDOWNEY