CODEL SHAYS: GOT UNDERSCORES SUPPORT FOR MALIKI;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 002062

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER PHUM OREP AM IZ TU
SUBJECT: CODEL SHAYS: GOT UNDERSCORES SUPPORT FOR MALIKI;
PRESSES FOR SUNNI ENGAGEMENT

REF: ANKARA 2028

Classified By: CDA Nancy McEldowney for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Rep. Chris Shays told Turkish officials on
August 8 that a reduction of U.S. forces in Iraq is
inevitable, predicting that it would take place gradually.
The Turks stressed that Iraq's disintegration would
de-stabilize the region for decades. They called PM Maliki's
August 7-8 Ankara visit positive for bilateral relations,
both on terrorism and energy cooperation (reftel),and noted
that Turkey had emphasized to Maliki the importance of Sunni
participation in Iraq's political process. Shays praised GOT
engagement with Baghdad, and said Maliki needs a realistic
deadline for addressing reconciliation issues and Iraq's
future as a unified nation. MFA officials told Shays PKK
terror threatens Turkey's relations with the US as well as
with Iraq, noting that large numbers of weapons entering
Turkey are U.S.-issued and originating from Iraq. They also
expressed concern that passage of an Armenia genocide
resolution (AGR) would set back bilateral relations. END
SUMMARY

TANGIBLE PROGRESS WITH MALIKI, BUT CONCERNS ABOUT HIS
VIABILITY
-------------- --------------


2. (C) U/S Ertugrul Apakan told Shays that Maliki's Ankara
meetings had achieved tangible progress; a bilateral security
agreement and an economic partnership agreement should be
ready for signature within two months, following visits by
the Iraqi Minister of Interior and National Security Advisor
in August. Turkey will continue to engage with Maliki,
Apakan said, primarily to promote him and the GOI -- "to show
that Iraq has a future." Shays appreciated Turkey's efforts
to bolster the embattled GOI. He regretted that while last
year the GOI lacked will, this year it seems to lack
capacity. Apakan conceded that Maliki appears cornered.
Iraq Special Envoy Oguz Celikkol and Deputy U/S Rafet Akgunay
told Shays that, with Maliki dependent on Kurdish parties for
his survival, he is not in control of the political agenda.
The Sunni/Shia schism affords Iraqi Kurds a disproportionate
degree of influence over GOI policy. Pointing to a lack of
coordination within Maliki's government, Akgunay noted that
FM Zebari, a Kurd, appeared to be most influential in
determining the GOI's Turkey policy.

ENGAGE SUNNIS IN THE POLITICAL PROCESS IN IRAQ
-------------- -


3. (C) Turkey wants to rebuild an Iraqi identity, Apakan
said. He warned that Iraq's division would unleash chaos in
the region, noting that enhanced dialogue between Sunni and
Shia is critical to success. He called for a "third track"
reconciliation process, brokered by the UN. Without Sunnis
in government there will be no stability in Iraq; the Sunnis
know how to govern the Kurds, the Shia don't, he said.
Celikkol urged the U.S. to pressure the Shia on Sunni
engagement. Maliki had responded positively to Turkey's
offer to facilitate contacts between the two groups, he said.
Celikkol said Turkey had some success in convincing tribal
leaders and other Iraqi Sunnis that Iran poses a greater
threat than the United States, but Sunni groups continue to
point to USG support for the Shia-Kurdish alliance as
sidelining them.


4. (C) Shays told the Turks that there is little support in
Congress for dividing Iraq. The Maliki government, however,
needs a deadline or it will drag out reconciliation for ten
years. Force structures make it inevitable that the U.S.
will soon begin to draw down troops, though Shays expected it
to be orderly, with about 50,000 left by late 2008. Akgunay
said re-positioning U.S. troops in northern Iraq would be
problematic; it would encourage two Iraqs -- only one
controlled.


ANKARA 00002062 002 OF 002


PKK TERRORISM THREATENS U.S.-TURKEY RELATIONS...
-------------- ---


5. (C) Akgunay emphasized that al Qaeda remains a serious
concern. It has targeted Turkey in the past and has promised
that it will again. The perception that the U.S. has turned
a blind eye to the PKK in northern Iraq has hurt Turkey-US
relations, in particular the problem of weapons and
explosives flowing into Turkey. Turkey believes that over
13,000 weapons have entered the country from Iraq; it has
provided the USG 2,000 serial numbers from U.S.-issued hand
guns. The PKK's presence in northern Iraq remains a major
impediment to rapidly improving Turkey-Iraq ties as well,
Celikkol said. Iraqi Kurds and Shia seem to understand
Turkey could be among Iraq's closest allies and a source of
investment and economic growth - but that cannot happen while
the PKK issue poisons relations.

..AS DOES AGR
--------------


6. (C) Rep. Shays (an AGR co-sponsor) told his hosts that
AGR is constituent-driven. If a resolution comes to the
House floor, he predicted it would pass with 400 votes. He
emphasized that the resolution has no force of law, and noted
the administration opposes it. He urged the Turks to focus
on Turkey's big issue - PKK terrorism -- on which Turkey has
nearly one hundred percent support in Congress. Apakan
explained the central role US relations play in Turkey's
western orientation and its internal and external balances;
Turkey has been a good partner and ally and Turks don't
deserve this resolution. He listed Turkey's efforts to
reconcile and normalize relations with Armenia, emphasizing
that Turkey is ready to talk to the Armenian government about
anything and everything.


7. (C) Americas DAS Ocak assured Shays that the GOT will
work to contain the damage if an AGR passes. However, he
emphasized that the Turkish public would react very strongly;
they fear Armenian claims to Turkish territory and
reparations lawsuits. Turks are extremely sensitive to
perceived threats to the nation's territorial integrity.
Noting that Turkey has acknowledged the tragedies of that
period, Ocak recommended that the resolution be drafted
differently. Shays agreed that a more positive resolution
that encourages Turkish and Armenian engagement would be more
productive and pledged to focus on this issue. With a better
understanding of the impact, Congress may recognize more
could be achieved without an AGR than with it, he said.


8. (U) Rep. Shays did not have the opportunity to clear this
cable.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

MCELDOWNEY