TURKEY'S NEW SPEAKER TOPTAN A SOLID CHOICE;

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 002036

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S NEW SPEAKER TOPTAN A SOLID CHOICE;
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE STILL UNCLEAR

REF: ANKARA 2004

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4(
c),(d)


1. (C) Summary and comment. Turkey's parliament elected
Koksal Toptan, a widely respected moderate, its new Speaker
in condensed voting on August 9. Toptan, the ruling Justice
and Development Party's (AKP) Zonguldak deputy, is a former
True Path Party (DYP) member with 30 years in government.
Viewed across the board as fair, intelligent and clean,
Toptan was mentioned as a consensus presidential candidate
last spring. Nationalist Action Party (MHP) candidate Tunca
Toskay and independent deputy Kamer Genc also ran but AKP's
341 seats, bolstered by support from CHP and others, ensured
an easy victory for Toptan. A well-respected Embassy
contact, Toptan will bring a balanced, experienced approach
to managing Turkey's fractious new parliament. The
every-man's choice of Toptan as Speaker may be AKP's attempt
to smooth the way for FM Gul's more contentious presidential
candidacy. Debate continues on whether PM Erdogan will name
his cabinet or his presidential candidate next. Summary and
comment.


2. (C) Toptan, 64, was the easy choice for Speaker, a
position second in rank to the president. He received 450 of
the 535 votes cast; MHP's candidate won 74 votes. A lawyer
with extensive government experience, Toptan is liked and
respected as fair, open-minded and balanced in approach. He
chaired parliament's Justice Committee in the last term and
served as Education Minister while still a member of
center-right secular DYP. His secular background, and a wife
who does not wear a headscarf, made him a reassuring choice
for opposition and state establishment leaders still wary of
AKP's Islamist roots. AKP deputies selected Toptan August 8
as the party's only candidate, ensuring his election.

3. (C) AKP's choice of Toptan set a tone of consensus as the
new government faces forming a cabinet and presidential
elections. Some are reading it as AKP's attempt to smooth
the way for FM Gul's still hotly debated presidential
candidacy. Gul has not withdrawn, and Erdogan has not
clearly named him AKP's candidate. Debate within the party
and the public continues, with some viewing Gul's possible
withdrawal as a defeat for democracy and others pushing for a
more broadly acceptable compromise candidate, such as Vecdi
Gonul. Erdogan must balance his pledge to support Gul
against his promise to represent all Turks. Pleasing AKP's
grass-roots supporters and mollifying the 53 percent who did
not vote AKP may be Erdogan's toughest test.


4. (C) With Toptan's election, Erdogan now has 45 days to
submit his cabinet for presidential approval. He may
initiate the presidential election first to ensure that the
new president, rather than President Sezer, approves his list
of ministers. There is no prescribed start-date for the
presidential election, although the process must be completed
within 30 days once begun. If the proposed cabinet is not
contentious, Erdogan may submit the names to Sezer and delay
the presidential election until his new government is in
place.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

MCELDOWNEY