Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA1981
2007-08-02 07:32:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP BLAMES ELECTION RESULTS ON

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001981 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP BLAMES ELECTION RESULTS ON
DEBT, DE FACTO VOTE-BUYING

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4
(b,d)

This cable was written jointly with Istanbul Consulate.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001981

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: OPPOSITION CHP BLAMES ELECTION RESULTS ON
DEBT, DE FACTO VOTE-BUYING

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4
(b,d)

This cable was written jointly with Istanbul Consulate.


1. (C) SUMMARY. Incoming opposition deputies on the
center-left shared their views with Ambassador that the July
22 election result -- a soaring win for the ruling Justice
and Development Party (AKP) and a piddling increase for
so-called center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) -- was
due to high levels of debt and to AKP's shameless
exploitation of government resources and religious
propaganda. Deputies believe that the presidential election
will invite greater tensions with the military. One deputy
expressed doubts about Turkey's European Union membership
bid, and asked for "a US handshake" on a host of regional
issues. END SUMMARY.

Election Readout: Fear of change, uneven playing field, and
dirty tricks
-------------- --------------


2. (C) CHP Vice Chairman and deputy for Bursa Onur Oymen and
Istanbul deputies Ilhan Kesici and Ahmet Tan shared their
views with Ambassador about the elections. Oymen, part of
CHP Chairman Deniz Baykal's immediate circle, gave no credit
to AKP beyond stating that they had bought millions of votes.
He attributed the results to four factors: the collapse of
the center-right (begun in the 2002 election and affirmed
last week); AKP's excessive exploitation of religious themes
that caused many voters who complained about the government
to vote for them anyway; AKP's bribes of free coal and
foodstuffs; and the blatant support of the media and big
business for the ruling party. He insisted that in local
terms, CHP had done better than in "all previous elections,"
but that CHP's "impressive gains" were obscured by MHP's
entrance into parliament. (Comment: CHP and the Democratic
Left Party (DSP) had an electoral alliance that claimed 20.9
percent of the vote, less than 0.3 points higher than their
combined respective 19.4 and 1.23 points from the 2002
election.)


3. (C) Center-right politician and CHP latecomer Ilhan Kesici
acknowledged AKP's success in presenting a strong leadership
team, conveying an impression of being in touch with the

people, and keeping the focus on economic progress.
Privately, he observed that CHP had mishandled economic
issues in the election campaign, giving nothing but vague
promises of future economic achievement. Kesici was
concerned about an abnormally strong Turkish lira and claimed
that both public and household debt had increased drastically
since 2003; if the exchange rate were suddenly to revert to
historic levels, those holding debt would be seriously
affected. This situation contributed to economic fears among
voters who thus did not want to change the government in
Ankara. Seventy percent of Turkish voters are center-right
and, while center-left voters may occasionally vote
center-right, center-right voters consider it a "sin" to vote
center-left, Kesici argued. CHP leaders, who wanted to
garner a doable 25 percent of the vote, were very
disappointed with CHP's 20.9 percent showing. The CHP party
apparatus simply does not have the capability to move the
electorate the way AKP does, Kesici said.


4. (C) Ahmet Tan, former Secretary General of the DSP, which
obtained 13 CHP seats in parliament through its election
alliance, professed he was "surprised but not shocked" by
AKP's electoral success. He said that in Turkey, clear
majorities are always given a second chance; Turks don't like
to take risks. He attributed AKP's result to a dynamically
changing economy in which 20 percent of the people live under
the poverty line but 50 million citizens now hold credit
cards. AKP "brainwashing" also played a role, he said.

Presidential Election Likely to Lead to Problems
-------------- ---


5. (C) Commenting on the challenge of electing Turkey's next
President, Oymen emphasized that the PM had committed himself
to compromise -- in other words, not to impose his own

ANKARA 00001981 002 OF 002


preferred candidate. If Foreign Minister Gul insists on
becoming president, "there will be problems in society."


6. (C) Kesici felt AKP has the ability to elect Abdullah Gul
or whoever they wish, but electing Gul or someone like
Erdogan would further heighten political problems. AKP could
"impose" Gul on the country, depending on the power balance
within AKP itself, he said. He termed the military's
reaction "unpredictable. They will hate anyone from within
AKP ranks." But the military found itself in new
circumstances with AKP win of over 46 percent of the July 22
vote. The international community, too, would oppose
military intervention. "They're in a difficult situation."
Kesici could only foresee continuing and building tension
with the military, adding there would be absolutely no
normalization in political circles if AKP elected one of its
own to the presidency. Even if the military could take no
action, there would be political tension in every single day
- a bad situation for Turkey, Kesici observed.

The EU and Beyond
--------------


7. (C) Kesici said EU relations will be difficult, with no
hope of full membership for at least 20 years. Turks need to
understand forthrightly that, despite strong U.S. backing,
full membership is many years away - if ever. No
superficial, false hope should be created; it would only lead
to further tension in the country. Observing that the EU and
Turkey need each other, he suggested that a less insistent
approach may yield a more favorable response from the EU.
Turks will understand a clear debate on membership without it
fueling anti-EU or anti-American attitudes. Ambassador
encouraged such a debate, which would likely result in a more
unified, focused effort by all segments of Turkey's polity.


8. (C) Kesici noted that Turkey could abandon EU membership
altogether, but said such a decision should be made only
after full consultations with the United States and major
political leaders in the EU. Because of Europe's concerns
over Turkey's membership, Kesici thought Turkey could not
insist on full membership for the time being. Again, "full,
comprehensive consultation with the U.S." would be important.
The U.S. is Turkey's most important ally and the best
partner for such discussions. "I believe Turkey will lose if
not hand-in-hand with the U.S." Citing great opportunities
and risks in Iraq - where unity and success are vital and a
"Kurdistan" most aggravating - Iran, the Caucasus, energy,
Middle East and Cyprus, Kesici said Turkey (not AKP) needs a
"U.S. handshake" on these issues for at least the next 20
years and preferably 50 years.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

MCELDOWNEY