TURKEY: CHP LEADERSHIP IN DENIAL, AGITATION FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001902

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: CHP LEADERSHIP IN DENIAL, AGITATION FROM
BELOW

REF: A. ANKARA 1901


B. ANKARA 1899

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan for reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. Turkey's main opposition
Republican People's Party (CHP) is in deep denial and
disarray after a lacklustre showing in the July 22 general
election. CHP leadership is pointing the finger everywhere
but at itself, going so far as to hint that the ruling
Justice and Devlopment Party's (AKP) stunning capture of 46.6
percent of the vote was due to mass lunacy. CHP's
scapegoating and hand-wringing since the election has
highlighted its sclerotic party leadership, out of touch with
both the public and its own social democratic core. Party
leader Deniz Baykal, a spry 70 year old, appears headed for a
fight with party rivals determined to revitalize CHP -- the
party of Ataturk -- and regain CHP's place as the leading
party of the left. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

CHP Sowed the Seeds of its Own Defeat
--------------


2. (C) After a disapppointing showing of 20 percent in the
July 22 election, CHP Chairman Deniz Baykal broke several
days of silence to boast that his party had increased its
support by 1,200,000 votes, or 1.5 percent, over 2002
election results. He made no mention of the fact that it did
so in an alliance with the Democratic Left Party (DSP),whose
candidates took 13 of CHP's 111 seats. CHP Vice Chairman
Onur Oymen, who at least acknowledged defeat, drew attention
to the chasm between CHP elites and the Turkish public when
he stated that the election result could not be explained
logically. CHP leaders have blamed the party's poor
performance on the military for creating a sympathy vote
(reftel A) for AKP and the collapse of the center-right,
which they claim drove votes to AKP.


3. (C) CHP's election slogan, "The people will win! The
Republic will win!", provides the most concise explanation of
its marginal gain. Having aligned itself with forces outside
the political realm -- the military, the judiciary -- to
squeeze AKP, and having portrayed itself as defender of a
republic in peril, CHP is now left in the cold by a public
fed up with scare-mongering and political interference.
Baykal's drift from social democracy to rightwing populism
had real right-wing nationalists joking they could feel CHP
bumping up against their left shoulders, but won over few new
voters and alienated even party loyalists with nowhere "left"
to go. When rightist, nationalist topics dominate politics,
quipped one CHP member, far-right Nationalist Action Party
(MHP) is simply better at working them than CHP. AKP managed
to entice some social democrats with its more persuasive
social programs, better resources and organization, and
greater attention to the needs of real Turks.


4. (C) A former CHP parliamentarian who did not seek
re-election described the issue of military and court
interference as a dead-end dilemma for true leftists. As
democrats, they should have opposed both the military's April
27 e-memorandum and the Constitutional Court's odd May 1
ruling that blocked the presidential election. Instead,
these actions accorded with the tactical demands of CHP
leadership, and opposing them was impossible.

Mutiny in the Offing?
--------------


5. (C) CHP's supporters hold autocratic leader Deniz Baykal
accountable for a bungled opportunity to capitalize on the
pro-secularism Republic Rallies and make the most of a merger
on the left. Scuffles broke out in front of CHP headquarters
on election night, as calls for Baykal's resignation rang
out. Disappointed CHP members hung a 20' poster of erstwhile
Baykal challenger Mustafa Sarigul (Istanbul's Sisli mayor)
outside CHP headquarters in a call for fresh leadership.
Baykal has declared he does not intend to resign and claims
he has been urged not to by former president Suleyman Demirel
and other key CHP members. Baykal rejected resignations

ANKARA 00001902 002 OF 002


submitted by all 19 members of CHP's Central Executive Board
on July 25, saying they should continue their duties.


6. (C) Sarigul is feeling his oats in Ankara now; he and
Hikmet Cetin have been named in the press as potential Baykal
replacements. Rumors of an upcoming party convention are
fueled by meetings of prominent disgruntled social democrats,
including Sarigul, Cetin, Onur Kumbaracibasi, Adnan Keskin,
Mehmet Mogultay, and Celal Dogan. CHP reportedly will
establish two committees to analyze the party's election
failure, which might lead to a good housecleaning at the top.
Even if Baykal and his cronies refuse to resign, some
suggest a new party could emerge from the election debacle
with a renewed emphasis on democracy and center-left values.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON