Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA1901
2007-07-26 08:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

TURKEY: AKP VICTORY A "MEMORANDUM" TO THE GENERALS

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001901 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AKP VICTORY A "MEMORANDUM" TO THE GENERALS

REF: ANAKA 1899

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan, for Reasons 1.4
(b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001901

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: AKP VICTORY A "MEMORANDUM" TO THE GENERALS

REF: ANAKA 1899

Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Kelly Degnan, for Reasons 1.4
(b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT. As the magnitude of the Justice
and Development Party's (AKP) win in the July 22 election
sinks in, many credit AKP's track record, successful economic
policies, and issue-based election campaign with boosting AKP
to over 46 percent. AKP -- far better than its party rivals
or state institutions -- was keyed in to public concerns.
At the same time, most also credit (or blame) the military's
heavy-handed efforts to influence public sentiment with
generating an electoral backlash that rewarded the perceived
victims. The widely-held negative assessment of the
military's role may deter it from further interference, at
least overtly. Overall, and perhaps optimistically, many see
the election as proof that Turkey's electorate expects a
consolidated, mature democracy and rejects the paternalistic
hand that has guided them in the past. Even AKP's opponents
appear hopeful that the new government, strong but not too
strong, will move Turkey beyond polarizing debates toward a
more affirmative and reform-minded agenda -- and that the
feckless opposition's failure will jar it into doing a better
job. END SUMMARY AND COMMENT.

AKP's Victory Interpreted as a Message to the Generals...
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Pundits are calling the July 22 election a "coup by
ballot box," alluding to the April 27 memorandum on the
military's website that precipitated the collapse of the
presidential election and forced early elections (the
"e-coup"). Although the Republican People's Party (CHP)
Chairman Deniz Baykal egged the military on this spring to
the point that the generals publicly told him to back off,
CHP is now blaming the brass: CHP Vice Chairman Mustafa
Ozyurek stated the April 27 e-memorandum worked for AKP's
advantage. In a written statement, Nationalist Action Party
(MHP) Chairman Devlet Bahceli also laid responsibility at the
generals' feet, claiming AKP won underserved success because
the public reacted against undemocratic interference with
parliament's will. One local official -- a rare MHP mayor --

observed that villagers in his district say that AKP was
treated unfairly during the presidential election process.


3. (SBU) Many columnists give this assessment a more
sophisticated twist: rather than simply producing sympathy
votes for the victim AKP, the public rejected both the
pressures of the secular establishment and the politics of
fear. Lale Saiibrahimoglu (pro-AKP Today's Zaman)
identified one of the more important outcomes of Sunday's
elections as "the rejection ... of a fear-based imposition of
policies by the so-called secular elites who have totally
ignored the real problems of the country". Erdal Safak
(Sabah) urged the "merchants of fear and conspiracy theories"
to go home. In an unusual convergence of views, Sami Kohen
(Milliyet) and Ibrahim Karagul (Yeni Safak) separately argued
that the western media's ideological assessment that the
"Islamists" had vanquished the "secularists" or that
civilians defeated the military was a facile treatment that
misrepresents Turkey's complex social and economic dynamics.


4. (SBU) Even so, some argue that the era of
military-bureaucratic guardianship of the republic has
passed; the agitation of fears (of Islamic overthrow of the
Republic, of terrorism, of separatism) in recent months has
not only not been persuasive, it has exposed the elite power
class's desperate struggle to remain relevant and in control.
Haluk Sahin (Radikal) compared "Old Turkey" -- characterized
by an elite charged with creating and protecting a modern
society from a backward and poor public -- and "New Turkey, a
project of opening up to the world, developing human rights,
democracy, and transparency. Sahin argued that the 2002
elections marked the beginning of the struggle between the
two; now the country has entered the New Turkey period. Ali
Bayramoglu (Yeni Safak) assessed the elections as the voters
asking the military to return to their barracks. Sukru
Kucuksahin (Hurriyet) told us that the military would have to
be quiet now. "Turks love the miltiary as soldiers, but don't
love them as politicians," he said.

ANKARA 00001901 002 OF 002



...But Economics, Other Factors Drove the Vote
-------------- -


5. (SBU) A few columnists acknowledge AKP's own role in its
electoral success; Ali Bulac (Today's Zaman) gave AKP about a
third of the credit, with the rest going to the hapless
opposition parties and bureaucratic system. Radio talk show
callers voting AKP claimed a full range of motivations, but
emphasized economic reasons. Indeed, AKP's strong showing
may have decided the debate about whether ordinary Turks are
feeling the benefits of Turkey's recent economic boom.
Pundits are noting voters' economic motivations as a
significant factor, and polls show economic factors as
decisive. In a recent Pew poll, 70 percent of Turkish
respondents cited economic problems as their top concern; a
KONDA poll reported 78.3 percent of voters claimed their
economic situation and expectations as a factor in their
vote. Concerns about democracy motivated 13.9 percent, and
secularist concerns motivated 10.3 percent.


6. (C) AKP's dramatic increase in the Southeast is widely
attributed both to AKP's successful economic policies and its
challenging "the system" from within (reftel). Derya Sazak
(Milliyet) argued that AKP came to power by taking over the
space vacated by the left, after reinventing itself as a
centrist party by drawing in moderate names and hiving off
too-conservative elements.


7. (C) At least some contacts were surprises by AKP's
election results, which significantly exceeded even AKP's
aspirations. One agricultural businessman said all his
farmer contacts must have been lying to him, because they
seem to have voted for AKP despite regularly complaining
about the party. Former Democratic Left Party (DSP)
minister, Tayyibe Gulek-Domec, was also shocked by the result
and blamed CHP's failure to put forward a better message,
including on economic policy. She attributed AKP's success
to widespread charity and handouts. Gulek-Domec said she
hoped the opposition's bitter failure would jolt them into
doing a better job.

AKP Must Seek Consensus, Revive Reform Efforts
-------------- -


8. (C) Many observers express quiet relief at a parliament
composition that will compel AKP cooperation with more than
the 22 "independents" affiliated with the Democratic Society
Party (DTP) in selecting a presidential candidate. Prime
Minister Erdogan's signals so far have been interpreted as
reassuring gestures of compromise, even by his detractors,
but in a July 25 press conference Abdullah Gul signaled that
his candidacy remains on the table. Retired General Edip
Baser, the former Special Envoy for Combatting the PKK, was
quoted as telling La Repubblica that if the presidential
election gets out of hand, the military would intervene again
and not necessarily through an electronic memo.


9. (SBU) Erdal Safak (Sabah) expressed the hope that this
expression of public will in defiance of a "venomous
atmosphere" would help Turkey return to an agenda of reform,
human rights, and democracy. Going forward, Husnu Mahalli
(Aksam) argued that this election would result in a more
relaxed, confident foreign policy; he predicted stronger
relations with the EU, a stronger stand against the US, and
improved standing among major states, particularly regarding
Turkey's good relations with Syria and Iran. Ali Bulac
(Today's Zaman) argued that the public's expectations
regarding improved income distribution, allocation of
resources for the poorer segments of society, and the rights
of the Sunni religious majority (headscarf issue; imam-hatip
schools) also helped drive the election result and should be
reflected in the new government's agenda.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON