TURKISH ELECTION: SOUTHEAST KURDISH VOTERS WILL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 001832

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/18/2027
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER TU
SUBJECT: TURKISH ELECTION: SOUTHEAST KURDISH VOTERS WILL
BACK DTP-ENDORSED INDEPENDENTS AND THE AKP

REF: A. ADANA 78


B. ISTANBUL 531

C. ANKARA 1778

Classified By: Classified by Adana PO Eric Green for reasons 1.4 (b) an
d (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. In Turkey's southeastern provinces the
Kurdish issue will be the main determinant of voting patterns
on July 22, giving the ruling Justice and Development Party
(AKP) and independent candidates endorsed by the pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society Party (DTP) the bulk of the seats. Many
DTP voters support the party despite, not because of its
association with the terrorist Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)
-- they do not see another party willing to stand up for the
Kurdish identity. The AKP draws strength both from being the
ruling party and its victim status following recent
confrontations with the Turkish military. AKP's
conservative religious credentials and economic programs will
also help its performance in the region. In the southeast,
AKP will probably win 60-70 percent of the seats with the
DTP-backed independents taking nearly all of the remainder.
Nation-wide, DTP likely will win 19-24 seats; 20 slots will
be sufficient to gain "group" status in the parliament. END
SUMMARY.

Two-Horse Race in the Southeast
--------------


2. (C) In the most heavily Kurdish provinces of the
southeast, the ruling AKP and pro-Kurdish DTP-endorsed
independent candidates are expected to dominate the voting.
The most populous province, Diyarbakir, has ten seats: DTP is
running four independents, all of whom are expected to win.
AKP is likely to win five of the remaining six slots. This
pattern is expected to repeat itself throughout the region,
with DTP winning 30-40 percent of the seats. The big loser
will be the Republic People's Party (CHP),which secured 14
seats from the southeast in 2002. Their total could diminish
to as few as 3-4; they may even be shut out in predominantly
Alevi Tunceli province, a traditional CHP stronghold which
elected CHPers to both its seats in 2002.


3. (C) AKP and DTP are popular in the southeast because both
are seen as standing up to the conservative, Kemalist forces
in the state bureaucracy and the military. The April 27
"e-memorandum," which locals regarded as a blatant usurpation
of the democratic processes by the Turkish General Staff
(TGS),elevated AKP's status in this region as a bona fide
victim of heavy-handed state interference. While there is
consensus that an AKP government would be far preferable to a
CHP-led coalition in terms of advancing democratization in
Turkey, many Kurds remain wary of the AKP -- not for being
pro-Islam, but for using the nationalistic rhetoric that has
dominated this election campaign as a whole.


4. (C) DTP voters are united by their interest in pushing
the government to take more action on the Kurdish issue.
While some sympathize with the terrorist PKK, many others
support the DTP by default, because there is no other viable
pro-Kurdish party. Nurcan Baysal, the leader of a
development NGO in Diyarbakir, said, "I'll vote DTP, not
because I like them or because I approve of their platform,
but because none of the other parties have any sympathy for
the Kurdish issue. People don't approve of the violence, but
they see that these people have the courage to stand up and
proclaim their Kurdish identity, and so on election day -- if
only for one day -- they vote for them so that they too can
proclaim their identity."

Secondary Factors: The Economy, Clans
--------------


5. (C) Though economic issues will play a secondary role,
AKP leaders believe that the government's ambitious
infrastructure expansion program (KoyDes, village
infrastructure support) will yield dividends at the ballot
box. Non-partisan governors in the southeast also frequently
tout the success of this program, which in Diyarbakir has
produced improvements on over 2,000 kilometers of roads and

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asphalt for 345 kilometers. In addition, new water systems
have benefited over 170,000 people. The AKP has also been
active in building schools in villages and expanding access
to health care for the urban poor.


6. (C) As is true elsewhere in Turkey, the AKP will do very
well among religious conservatives. In Diyarbakir city,
fundamentalist religious movements affiliated with the Saadet
(Felicity) Party are trying to win the loyalty of
slum-dwellers through hand-outs of food and other essentials,
but are unlikely to persuade many voters to leave the AKP
fold.


7. (C) The AKP's status as the current and presumptive party
of government will also help woo tribal and religious leaders
(aghas and sheiks) who retain residual influence on elections
in a few pockets of the region. As the population has
urbanized, the bonds of traditional clans have loosened,
while those who remain in the villages are less isolated,
thanks to technology and travel. The Democrat Party (DP),
which has close affiliations with large landlords and the
village guards, is the other likely beneficiary of residual
clan-based voting.

After July 22
--------------


8. (C) Past election performances by pro-Kurdish parties
suggest that DTP should win the majority of the seats in
several southeastern provinces. In fact, a number of factors
will limit DTP-endorsed candidates' success. First, running
as independents will require the party to manage its votes
carefully in multi-candidate districts (ref a). The vote for
DTP candidates will also be limited by the difficulty that
some illiterate voters will likely have understanding a long,
complex ballot. In addition, in some remote areas, including
a village we visited, the people will avoid voting for DTP
candidates because they fear being labeled as PKK
sympathizers and subjected to reprisals by state authorities.
DTP and even AKP officials also told us they believe the
authorities could use fraud to boost the CHP or MHP vote.


9. (C) The consensus among political observers, journalists
and other politicians is that the DTP-endorsed independents
will win 24-27 seats nation-wide. The optimist is Ahmet
Birsin, a program director at Gun-TV in Diyarbakir, who
claimed the DTP would win 30-35, which would require both
masterful vote management throughout the southeast as well as
better-than-expected performances in regions further west.
DTP officials privately say that winning 25 seats would be a
"big success." With 20 seats, these deputies will be able to
form a parliamentary group, which would ensure that DTPers
enjoy all the perqs of parliament: a place on all
parliamentary committees; a member on the Speakership Board;
a member on the agenda-setting Consultative Board; the
ability to propose legislative drafts, submit a censure
motion, ask for a parliamentary investigation, or apply to
the Constitutional Court for annulment of legislation; access
to a group room; and a share of parliament TV broadcasts.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON