Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07ANKARA1598
2007-06-22 07:02:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ankara
Cable title:  

DAS BRYZA'S MEETINGS WITH MFA CAUCASUS DG UMAN AND

Tags:  PREL PBTS PGOV NATO OSCE AJ AM GG RU TU ZJ 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2789
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHAK #1598/01 1730702
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 220702Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY ANKARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2705
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL 2916
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001598 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV NATO OSCE AJ AM GG RU TU ZJ
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA'S MEETINGS WITH MFA CAUCASUS DG UMAN AND
POLICY PLANNING DG CENGIZER


Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney, reasons 1.4 b, d

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001598

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017
TAGS: PREL PBTS PGOV NATO OSCE AJ AM GG RU TU ZJ
SUBJECT: DAS BRYZA'S MEETINGS WITH MFA CAUCASUS DG UMAN AND
POLICY PLANNING DG CENGIZER


Classified By: DCM Nancy McEldowney, reasons 1.4 b, d


1. (C) SUMMARY. DAS Matt Bryza met in Ankara on June 14
with MFA Director General for Caucasus and Central Asia
Resit Uman and MFA Director General for Policy Planning Altay
Cengizer. DAS Bryza shared his views on the previous week's
disappointing meeting of the Azeri and Armenian Presidents on
Nagarno-Karabakh. The two sides also discussed democracy and
missile defense in Azerbaijan, as well as the Abkhaz conflict
and Georgia's NATO accession. DAS Bryza underscored U.S.
support for Georgia,s NATO aspirations and requested Turkish
assistance in encouraging dialogue between Tbilisi and
Sukhumi to advance a peaceful settlement of the Abkhazia
conflict. DG Cengizer was pleased with bilateral
consultations on policy planning and stressed the need for
Turkey to do a better job describing the full historical
picture in eastern Anatolia in 1915. END SUMMARY.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH
--------------


2. (C) DAS Bryza welcomed the June 18-20 visit of Deputy U/S
Cevikoz to Washington, and looked forward to the
opportunity to "think things through systematically" with the
GOT.


3. (C) On Nagorno-Karabakh, Uman informed Bryza that Minsk
Group co-chair Fassier was "cautiously optimistic" about the
prospects for agreement on the Basic Principles during the
French Co-Chair,s visit to Ankara a month earlier. Uman
asked why there was a perception of no progress on N-K at St.
Petersburg. Bryza said Kocharian had led the Co-Chairs and
Aliyev to believe he (Kocharian) would energize his effort to
reach agreement on the Basic Principles following Armenia,s
May parliamentary elections. The FonMins, said Bryza, had
said they had carried the negotiating process as far as they
could, and to the point at which decisions by the Presidents

were required for further progress. Bryza said he expected
the Presidents to reach agreement on the nature of the vote
that would determine NK,s status, e.g., plebiscite or
referendum. Aliyev, however, was willing to negotiate
(though his tactics were a bit passive-aggressive); Kocharian
was not. Kocharian indicated he might pass this issue on to
his successor after the February 2008 presidential elections,
but agreed to consider another possible meeting with Aliyev
at the CIS summit in October in Tajikistan. Bryza assessed
that deliberations on Kosovo were also influencing
Kocharian's calculus on N-K.


4. (C) Uman confirmed that FonMin Oskanian was coming to the
BSEC Summit in Istanbul on June 25, and was planning a press
conference, as well as delivering remarks to the Turkey
Economic Relations Board. Uman hoped this visit would be
positive, but regretted that Kocharian is not coming.

MISSILE DEFENSE
--------------


5. (C) Uman asked how U.S. missile defense plans (MD) would
effect the region. Bryza said Putin's offer to
incorporate Azerbaijan,s radar at Gabala into U.S. MD
planning was a big surprise, which he stressed to Aliyev in
St. Petersburg. Aliyev indicated he realized the U.S. was
taken by surprise and not talking about Azerbaijani military
assets with Moscow over Baku,s head. Azeri FM Mammadyarov
had confirmed with Bryza that Azerbaijan wished to explore
the project, and saw potential benefit in it by virtue of
signaling Iran to back off from pressuring Azerbaijan while
breaking Russia,s monopoly over use of the Gabala radar.

PRESS FREEDOM AND DEMOCRACY IN AZERBAIJAN
--------------


6. (C) Uman raised the issue of the assault on press freedom
in Azerbaijan. Bryza characterized Aliyev as irritated and
"emotionally wounded" when Bryza raised this matter in Baku.
Aliyev claimed Azerbaijan is the only
real democracy in the region, but he is widely perceived to
be anti-democratic. He feels beaten right now, and DAS
Bryza recommended that his "Turkic brethren" reach out to
him. Uman noted that many saw the Armenian elections as
having been well-administered, and suggested that Armenia has
a democratic perception edge over Azerbaijan. Uman said
Turkey will communicate to Azerbaijan that it needs to work
on its democratic credentials, less it arm Armenia with a
potent issue.

GEORGIA, RUSSIA AND ABKHAZIA
--------------

ANKARA 00001598 002 OF 003




7. (C) On Abkhazia, Uman said the situation is increasingly
tense, as Russia threatens to recognize the independence of
Abkhazia if others recognize Kosovo,s independence. Turkey
understands but does not fully agree with those who warn
against affording Russia a de-facto veto against Georgia,s
NATO aspirations by demanding resolution of the "frozen
conflicts" first. Uman said Georgia's potential NATO
membership needs to be weighed against all consequences and
implications for the region. Bryza countered that there is
no status quo in Abkhazia; if Georgia loses hope in its NATO
prospects, the chance of armed conflict will increase;
conversely, as Georgia feels more securely anchored to NATO,
its behavior will grow increasingly tempered. Bryza said the
U.S. will insist that Russia fulfill its Istanbul
commitments. Bryza said weakness only feeds Russian
aggression, and Russia cannot have a veto on Georgia,s NATO
membership. He pointed out that Azerbaijan has been
successful vis-a-vis Russia by being firm yet respectful. He
noted that Baku has used the cutoff of Azeri oil exports to
Russia in response to Gazprom,s bullying of Baku on natural
gas supplies to soften Moscow,s approach to Azerbaijan.
Bryza said that the UN "Friends" group on Georgia will meet
on June 26-27 in Vienna or Geneva to explore ways to reduce
tension in the Gali District, implement CBM,s, and
rejuvenate the settlement process in light of UN
deliberations on Kosovo. Bryza noted that Georgian President
Saakashvili was ready to meet with Abkhaz de-facto
&President8 Bagapash without preconditions; but Bagapsh
refused any Abkhaz contact with the Georgians unless Georgia
withdrew governmental structures from the Upper Kodori
Valley, which was a non-starter. Bryza requested that Turkey
encourage the Abkhaz de-facto leaders to engage Georgian
leaders.

POLICY PLANNING AND ARMENIA WITH DG CENGIZER
--------------


8. (C) MFA Policy Planning Director Altay Cengizer told
Bryza that his main project in the next year -- which he is
spending at Harvard,s JFK School of Government and Center
for International Affairs -- is to deepen the GOT,s thinking
on energy security matters and the Armenian genocide issue.
Concentrating on Armenia, Cengizer said he wants to expand
the dialogue both in Turkey and the U.S. on the events of
1915, with an eye toward a deeper understanding of the full
range of tragic events transpiring in eastern Anatolia during
World War One. Cengizer said his goal was genuine
reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia as both countries
come to terms with their common history. Cengizer believed
Turkey,s current, doctrinaire approach to the events of 1915
was not working. Bryza agreed, and suggested that rather
than insisting that Ottoman Turks did nothing terrible but
Armenians destabilized eastern Turkey (e.g,. &no, but(,)
Turkey might consider acknowledging in a more formal way that
Ottoman troops committed terrible acts and Armenians may have
as well (e.g, &yes, and(8). Cengizer concurred that
Turkey,s position should be "yes, and;" that is, terrible
events (though short of genocide) occurred in 1915 --
perpetrated by some in authority in the dying Ottoman Empire
-- and these events took place in a complex political
environment in which both sides share responsibility.


9. (C) Cengizer hoped that such a process -- which he
admitted would require significant advancement on the part
of Turkish intellectuals and the media -- would create the
space necessary for Turkey and Armenia to make political
progress. Bryza agreed, but added that in the short run an
Armenian Genocide Resolution (AGR) will likely resurface
during the next 12 months. Cengizer agreed that his project
was unlikely to make sufficient progress in such a short
time, but cautioned that an AGR would make it impossible for
years to come. Cengizer added that he is "unabashedly"
committed to the U.S.-Turkey relationship, and asserted that
the AGR issue presents an even greater threat to the
relationship than disagreements over Iraq.


10. (C) Cengizer reported that there will be a gap over the
summer until his replacement -- as yet unnamed -- is in
place. He said Turkey was gratified by February policy
planning talks, and believed they should be held if possible
twice a year rather than annually. He suggested that the
next round expand their view of the world. He admitted that
Turkey,s policy planning staff does not have the
intellectual strength to think creatively about the Far
East and Pacific regions, as well as Latin America. He asked
for a more fulsome picture of the USG,s worldview.
He added that this perspective would help MFA more usefully
understand globalization and how it benefits Turkey. As a

ANKARA 00001598 003 OF 003


larger democracy with an economy of scale, Turkey is already
a winner from globalization, but anti-EU and
anti-U.S. attitudes are feeding a negative Turkish view of
the outside world, which Cengizer finds vexing and
frightening.


11. (U) DAS Bryza cleared this cable.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON