U/S BURNS' MEETING WITH TURKISH NATIONAL SECURITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 000133

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2027
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NATO IZ IR KPAL EPET ENRG ZK
IS, TU
SUBJECT: U/S BURNS' MEETING WITH TURKISH NATIONAL SECURITY
ADVISOR ALPOGAN

Classified By: Ambassador Ross Wilson for reasons 1.4 (b,d).

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Turkish National Security Council President Yigit
Alpogan told U/S Burns January 19 that 2007 would be a
challenging year for bilateral relations. The Turkish
government hopes passage of an Armenian genocide resolution
in the U.S. Congress can be averted, fears relations with the
U.S. will be harmed by lack of progress on countering PKK
terrorism from northern Iraq, and recommends postponement of
an Iraqi referendum on the status of Kirkuk to prevent
instability that could affect the entire region. U/S Burns
said the U.S. will continue to work with Turkey and Iraq to
diminish PKK violence, noting Special Envoy Ralston would
visit the region at the end of January, but warned that
Kirkuk must be solved by the Iraqis. Burns emphasized the
importance of NATO success in Afghanistan and the need fo a
more aggressive strategy there, hoping Turey and other ISAF
contributors would considereliminating national caveats and
contributingadditional troops. He said the U.S. consides
Turkey's help essential as we seek to stabilize Iraq, promote
peace in the Middle East, and confront Iranian ambitions.
Both agreed that the U.S. and Turkey should cooperate more
closely on Central Asia, particulary in the energy sphere.
End Summary.

Armenia Genocide Resolution
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2. (C) Alpogan said anticipation of passage of an Armenian
genocide resolution in the U.S. Congress is already causing
turbulence in Turkish public opinion. He stated Turkey
desires good relations with the Armenian people, highlighted
GOT proposals for a joint historical commission and described
current Turkish commercial ties with Armenia, including the
presence of 40,000 Armenian workers and traders in Turkey.
The U.S. must realize that such a resolution will damage its
own interests in the region. He hoped a genocide resolution
could be avoided, but said the government was prepared for
"damage limitation" should it pass.

Iraq and the PKK
--------------


3. (C) Displaying a map of PKK terrorist camps in northern
Iraq, Alpogan stated that the Turkish public does not see how
the PKK features in the U.S. global war on terrorism. He
noted the Turkish parliament had debated Iraq on January 18
and would discuss the issue further in a closed session on
January 23. The opposition is calling for a cross border
operation. Alpogan said lack of action on the PKK will have
a significant impact on U.S. - Turkish relations.


4. (C) U/S Burns said the U.S. Government understands its
responsibilities to work with Turkey and Iraq to diminish the
PKK's attacks on Turkish military and civilians, noting that
Special Envoy Ralston would visit the region at the end of
January. The U.S. is the PKK's enemy and is working with
European countries to counter the organization. We want the
Makhmour refugee camp closed; the recent weapons search
conducted by Iraqi and Coalition security forces was a step
in that direction. Burns assured Alpogan the U.S. would work
this problem with Turkey and Iraq against the PKK but stated
that Turkey must also work directly with the Iraqi government
as well as Iraqi Kurd authorities.

Iraq and Kirkuk's Status
--------------


5. (C) Alpogan disagreed with U.S. statements that Kirkuk's
status should be resolved by the Iraqis. He said that
instability in Kirkuk would surely lead to civil war in Iraq;
"as Kirkuk goes, so goes Iraq." Iraq's neighbors cannot
remain indifferent to Kirkuk. Should a referendum give one
ethnic group control over the city, nothing would hold Iran
from dominating the Shi'a south while the Sunnis seize Iraq's
center with al Qaeda's help. Iran's regional influence would
grow rapidly and the "Shi'a crescent" from Iran to the
eastern Mediterranean would extend to Egypt and beyond and

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become a "Shi'a circle." The GOT recommends postponement of
a Kirkuk resolution by at least 18 months, perhaps to
coincide with the planned referendum on Iraqi federalism.


6. (C) Burns encouraged Turkey to voice its concerns to the
GOI but warned that Kirkuk is an issue of Iraqi national
sovereignty. NEA PDAS James Jeffrey said the U.S.
understands Kirkuk's importance, but there are many other
critical issues the GOI must tackle as well. He recommended
that Turkey respect Iraqi sensibilities and not lecture the
Iraqis on their constitution. The Iraqis are proud and will
strongly resist what they perceive as outside interference in
their political decisions.

NATO and Getting Afghanistan Right
--------------


7. (C) Turning to U.S. priorities, U/S Burns stressed the
importance of strengthening the U.S. - Turkey partnership in
the NATO alliance and hoped for a stronger Turkish voice at
NATO. The major challenge is Afghanistan; ISAF needs a more
aggressive strategy and the U.S. is planning an increased
effort there in 2007 which could involve additional troops,
as Secretary Gates had said on his trip there. Turkey's
contributions to ISAF and establishment of a PRT in Wardak
are greatly appreciated, but more troops are needed in the
key southern provinces of Helmand, Oruzgan and Kandahar. The
U.S. is looking to Turkey, Germany, France and Italy for
help. Besides additional troop contributions, ISAF
contributing countries should also remove national caveats on
the employment of their ISAF forces, Burns stressed.

U.S. Goals in the Middle East
--------------


8. (C) Burns stated that U.S. - Turkish consultation and
cooperation would be crucial to other U.S. priorities in the
region, including forging a peace between Israel-Palestine,
helping the government of Lebanon resist pressures from
Hezbollah backed by Iran, and curbing Iranian nuclear and
political ambitions.

Central Asia and Energy
--------------


9. (C) Beyond the Middle East, Burns identified Central Asia
as an important area for bilateral cooperation. U.S.
relations with Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are good, and are
slowly improving with Uzbekistan. The death of Turkmenbashi
may open opportunities for better relations with
Turkmenistan. Alpogan responded positively, noting that
Turkey cannot forge strong ties there on its own. The EU
seems rather uninterested in the area. Alpogan focused on
energy as an area for U.S. - Turkish cooperation and he hoped
work on trans-Caspian gas could resume. Working together,
Turkey and the U.S. can provide outlets for Central Asian
energy, through the Caucasus as well as the Indian Ocean,
that bypass Russia. Such projects will help the Central
Asian countries stand alone, creating conditions for more
democracy and human rights there.


10. (C) Ambassador noted that senior U.S. officials would
soon be coming to Turkey for Economic Partnership Commission
talks and energy would be a focus. The U.S. is also trying
to set up a U.S. - Turkey - Iraq energy working group to
explore the export of Iraqi gas through Turkey to European
markets. Alpogan welcomed U.S. interest, stating Turkey
hopes to become an energy hub and transit country with the
goal of reducing Turkey's, and Europe's, dependence on energy
from Russia.


11. (U) U/S Burns has cleared this message.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON