TURKEY: PRO-KURDISH PARTY'S NEW STRATEGY TO ENTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 001198

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL OSCE TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: PRO-KURDISH PARTY'S NEW STRATEGY TO ENTER
PARLIAMENT

REF: A. ANKARA 965


B. ANKARA 1179

Classified By: Political Counselor Janice G. Weiner, reasons 1.4(b),(d)

1.(U) Summary: In Turkey's July 22 elections, the Democratic
Society Party (DTP) is aiming to end a 13-year absence of
pro-Kurdish representation in parliament by running
candidates as independents. The party hopes to persuade
supporters that DTP will pass the 10 per cent election
threshold and is not a "throw-away" vote. DTP is also
courting prominent Kurds and leftists from outside the party
to run under its "pro-Kurdish, pro-democracy" umbrella.
While DTP's prediction of winning around 50 seats is overly
optimistic, even naysayers predict the party will win the 20
seats necessary for official parliamentary group status. In
a move expected to lessen independent candidates' (and DTP's)
chances, parliament passed and the President signed a
constitutional amendment requiring that independents be
listed on the main ballot rather than separate slips -- a
measure some predict will confuse DTP's less educated and
illiterate voters. Current legal scrutiny of DTP could bring
about a closure case, and is likely to limit which DTP'ers
are eligible to run. One factor sure to throw the party's
plans into chaos would be resumption of military-PKK clashes
in the region. End summary.

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DTP Organizing Bloc of Pro-Kurdish Independent Candidates
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2.(C) At a May 12 DTP party meeting, members unanimously
agreed to run the party's candidates as independents in the
July 22 parliamentary elections, according to Orhan Miroglu,
DTP Vice President for International Relations. Miroglu told
us the party hopes to attract voters who, knowing the party
would not surpass the 10 per cent election threshold, viewed
a vote for DTP as a "throw-away" in previous elections. The
party also is courting candidates from outside DTP who
support a peaceful resolution to the Kurdish problem to run
as independents under one umbrella. Party leaders are in
talks with Hakpar and Participatory Democracy Party (KADEP),
as well as non-Kurdish candidates from left-leaning NGOs such
as the Turkish Medical Doctors' Association and the DISK
labor union. DTP expects to announce a list of candidates
between May 27 and 29.

3.(C) Miroglu saw the decision to run candidates as
independents as a major turning point in Turkish political
history. Not only will it allow Kurds to enter parliament,
but it will lead to a new unity among Kurds who support a
nonviolent, democratic platform and isolate those who support
using violence to resolve the Kurdish problem, he said.

4.(C) Leaders of smaller pro-Kurdish parties Hakpar and KADEP
are considering running under a DTP umbrella even though they
have repeatedly told us they would not affiliate themselves
with DTP. Hakpar president Sertac Bucak told us he is in
ongoing talks with DTP Chairman Ahmet Turk regarding possible
participation. His main condition is that all candidates
agree to pursue a nonviolent solution to the Kurdish problem.
Hakpar has been influential in pushing DTP toward a more
moderate stance and would continue to do so in any coalition.
KADEP President Serafettin Elci, a former Minister of Public
Works, told us he is weighing his options but has not ruled
out running with such a pro-Kurdish bloc.

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Turkey's Kurdish SE: Electoral Arithmetic
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5.(C) Miroglu told us DTP's analysts predict that
independents under DTP's umbrella will win between 37-50
seats. Non-DTP Kurdish contacts see that as wildly
optimistic. Hasim Hasimi, a former Motherland Party
(Anavatan) MP and mayor of Cizre, said he expects DTP's
independents to win approximately 20 seats. Hasimi believes
the AKP has brought concrete economic development to the
southeast, in contrast to DTP's "empty promises," stale
rhetoric, and perceived links to the PKK. Hasimi and other
regional contacts have indicated that DTP's decision to run

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independents does not sit will with everyone: some who had
been considering a run as independents are now looking to
join established parties' lists so as not to be associated
with DTP, which they see as too radicalized and
unrepresentative of the region's conservative values.

6.(C) The reality likely lies somewhere in between. Turkey's
eastern region plays a minor role in the overall election
picture: the 13 pro-Kurdish eastern provinces have a combined
population of less than 5 million and only 55 of Turkey's 550
parliamentary seats. (Greater Istanbul alone has 70 seats in
parliament.) The region nevertheless will be closely
watched, as DTP attempts to end 13 years without
parliamentary representation. DTP plans to run 63 candidates
in the southeast and in regions with large Kurdish migrant
populations, such as Adana, Mersin, Ankara, and Istanbul.
Any DTP gains would likely come largely at the expense of
ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP),which currently
holds 36 of seats in the southeast. Some of the main
opposition Republican People's Party's (CHP) 14 seats could
also be at risk.

7.(C) Despite winning over 40 percent of the vote in five
eastern provinces in the 1997 and 2002 elections, DTP's
predecessor, the Democratic People's Party (DEHAP),was shut
out of parliament for failing, as a party, to surpass the 10
percent threshold. No such threshold applies for
independents, who must simply garner a certain percentage of
the vote in their district. AKP MP Koksal Toptan said DTP's
presence in parliament could lead to progress on economic and
social problems in the southeast. But if pro-Kurdish
independents focus on Kurdish nationalism instead, they risk
sparking serious fighting within parliament, he said,
particularly if ultranationalist Nationalist Movement Party
(MHP) also crosses the threshold. "Kurdish ethnic
nationalism versus Turkish ethnic nationalism will be a very
dangerous conflict for Turkey," Toptan warned.

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Attempts to Hamper DTP's Plans
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8.(C) Largely to block potential DTP gains, parliament
recently adopted -- and the President just signed -- a
constitutional amendment to require that independent
candidates be listed on the main ballots rather than on
separate slips. DTP believes the amendment will have little
impact, but many election analysts predict that DTP's
supporters, many of whom are illiterate, are likely to find
the long, cumbersome ballots confusing. Other parties may
try to further handicap independents' chances by encouraging
nuisance candidates with similar names to run. Miroglu said
that if any party adopted such a strategy, DTP would "shut
down" the election by responding in kind, introducing
hundreds of candidates with names such as "Erdogan",
"Baykal", or "Mumcu."

9.(C) Kurdish contacts view the amendment as a clear sign of
fears that a DTP parliamentary presence would provide a
platform for the PKK. One Kurdish contact told us that the
amendment indicates that "neither Erdogan nor other
politicians are sincere or ready for the resolution of
Kurdish conflict within the parliamentary-democratic system."
Another characterized the amendment as part of a broader
state-sponsored effort, including arrests and harassment of
DTP's leadership (ref A) and increased military operations in
the southeast (ref B),to keep a pro-Kurdish bloc out of
parliament. Military operations, he continued, would turn
voters away from the parliamentary system and toward the PKK,
which argues that its policy of confrontation is needed to
win concessions from the GOT.

10.(C) Comment: DTP leaders are doggedly pursuing a
pragmatic strategy to enter parliament. By running
independents, DTP can make a credible claim to supporters
that it will cross the threshold this time. Success,
however, will depend on many unknowns. One factor is
whether, if the courts pursue a closure case against DTP,
that will affect the status of the independent candidates.
Another one, sure to throw the party's plans into chaos,
would be resumption of military-PKK clashes in the region.

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This consideration could play a role in the PKK's decision
whether to continue or abrogate their current ceasefire. End
comment.

Visit Ankara's Classified Web Site at
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/ankara/

WILSON